Best Picture

Prediction: "Million Dollar Baby"
My preference: "Million Dollar Baby"

Best Actor

Prediction: Jamie Foxx
Preference: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"

If Foxx doesn't win, it will be because he split his own vote after also being nominated as best supporting actor for "Collateral." He could have more total votes than anyone else, and still lose both categories. Should that happen, I think the Oscar will go to Clint Eastwood.


Best Actress

Hilary Swank. As simple as that. Her performance as the "Million Dollar Baby" is the most powerful of the year, and achieved with the same focused intensity that distinguishes the entire film. She isn't the most beautiful actress in Hollywood, or always the best, but in the right role, she is unstoppable. She won in 2000 for "Boys Don't Cry," a low-budget independent film, because voters couldn't overlook the emotional impact of the performance, and this year the impact is even greater.

Prediction: Hilary Swank
Preference: Hilary Swank

Best supporting actor

Prediction: Morgan Freeman
Preference: Morgan Freeman, with a tug toward Thomas Haden Church

Best supporting actress

Prediction: Virginia Madsen
Preference: Virginia Madsen

Best director

Prediction: Clint Eastwood
Preference: Martin Scorsese

Best animated film

Prediction: "The Incredibles"
Preference: "The Incredibles"

Best foreign film

Prediction: "The Sea Inside"
Preference: "Yesterday"

Best documentary

Prediction: "Born Into Brothels"
Preference: "Tupac: Resurrection.


ALL THE PICKS (+ Commentary):

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbc ... /502130302

Roger's predictions are FINE to moi, esp Director, Sup Actor, Film and Actor.

There's a contest as well on the Sun-Times site. Outguess Ebert and win a vacation.

The other big Chicago film critic has weighed in and sees a sweep of sorts for Million Dollar Baby

Chicago Tribune/Sunday, February 13, 2005

"The Oscar will go to..."
There are some clear favorites but very few locks in this year's race
by Michael Wilmington

BEST PICTURE

Who will win: "Million Dollar Baby"
Top contenders: "The Aviator" "Sideways"
Who should win: "The Aviator"
Emotion may carry the day here. "Million Dollar Baby," the smaller, more intimate movie, tends to put people through the wringer. "Aviator," for all its imressive logistics, is a spectacle that leaves them colder. Actors will probably be inclined to vote for "Baby," tech people for "Aviator." "Sideways," the only other film with a chance, may strike many as 'just a comedy'-- a longtime Oscar contest prejudice. The one that wins, in the end, may be the one that stirred hearts rather than minds: "Baby" rather than "Aviator." But this race and the next seem so close, anything is possible.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who will win: Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Top contender: Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"
Who should win: Scorsese
Is it possible to have two sentimental favorites in the same category? Scoresese is overdue, but Eastwood is a legend to whom movie people would love to give a valedictory. Though they're two of my favorite directors, it's Scorsese who has never won the top prize- and who executed the more complex, dematnding, ambitious assignment. Yet crucially, Eastwood's is the more obviously personal film and the one that most moved people.

BEST ACTOR

Who will win: Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Top contender: Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Who should win: Foxx
Considered a lock for this Oscar almost since the day "Ray" was released, Foxx has done nothing since to spoil his chances. But there's a catch. If "Million Dollar Baby" does win four or five oscars, as many now project, then normally Eastwood-the-actor would have shared in the bounty, winning a kind of career achievement acting award. But how can he beat Foxx? How could the academy ignore such a brilliantly executed role: both a dead-on impersonation of Ray Charles and a lucid unveiling of The Genius' sometimes dark and self-destructive drives?

BEST ACTRESS

Who will win: Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Top contenders: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"
Who should win: Staunton
The vaunted repeat race between 1999 combatants Swank and Bening never really materialized, since Bening tended to igrore it. Swank seemed far ahead. And Imelda Staunton, who fave an extraordinary portrayal in the controversial "Vera Drake," has been absent from many oscar events (because of the recent death of her mother), while her film has probably been much less seen than either "Julia" or "Baby." I suspect, though, that if more people had seen it and seen her, a major upset might have occured here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who will win: Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Top contenders: Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Clive Owen, "Closer"
Who should win (tie): Freeman, Church.
The kind of career Oscar that probably won't go to Scorsese-the-director and Eastwood-the-actor will almost certainly be bestowed on Freeman-the-master for his grizzled, compasionate old trainer-attendant Eddie in "Baby." Deserving the Oscar on other ocasions, he can finally be rewarded for local and general excellence here. Church, who gave the year's finest comic supporting performance, has already been awarded with a fistful of critics' group prizes and a career renovation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who will win: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Top contender: Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Who should win: Blanchett
Blanchett, clearly one of the best movie actresses today, excelled in 2004 portraying the greatest American movie actress ever (Katharine Hepburn), while Madsen reinvented herself with a perfect, earthy love interest Maya in "Sideways'" brilliant ensemble. Again, very close. But Blanchett, like Foxx, captured a portrait of greatness with true inspiration and amazing conviction.

BEST WRITING
(Adapted Screenplay)

Who will win: Alexander Payne, and Jim Taylor, "Sideways"
Top contender: Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"
Who should win: Payne and Taylor
Unless Virginia Madsen breaks through, this will be the "Sideways" Oscar.

BEST WRITING
(Original Screenplay)

Who will win: Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gongry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Top contender: John Logan, "The Aviator"
Who should win: Kaufman, Gondry and Bismuth.
This category is rarely won by a non-best picture nominee, but the "Eternal Sunshine" script may own Hollywood's hip vote. It's clever enough to defy traditions.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Who will win: "The Sea Inside" (Spain)
Top contenders: "Downfall" (Germany); "The Chorus" (France)
Who should win: "Downfall"
Two big winners about assisted suicide? Initially, it doesn't seem likely, but that's why this Oscar night may ultimately surprise us.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Who will win: "The Incredibles"
Top contenders: none
Who should win: "The Incredibles"

This is the only lock.

Hmmmm.

I'm not ready to give in to the Million Dollar Baby. It's my favorite to win, but my prediction?

I just don't know anymore. I can't shake the feeling that both Picture and Director will go to Aviator in what is soon to become an upset with so many 'Baby' predictors.

I think if Jamie Foxx loses there will be a civil war. Lol jk
But as much as I would like to see Clint Eastwood win, Foxx and DiCaprio delivered the best performances of the year with very little competition for the title.

I am starting to finally give in to Swank's win. Mostly because Benning hasn't been vocal enough.
what a feat for Eastwood, 2 years in a row, his films will deliver 2 acting statues!!

So far, ny card will read like the following...

Best Picture
Will Win: Aviator
should Win: Aviator/Baby
My preference: Million Dollar Baby

Director
Will: Scorsese
Should: Scorsese
Preference: Eastwood

Actor
Will: Foxx
Should: Foxx
Preference: Dicaprio (just to see the reaction and he does deserve it)

Actress
Will: Swank
Should: Staunton
Preference: Winslet

Supp. Actor
Will: Freeman
Should: Foxx
Preference: Freeman

Supp. Actress
Will: Blanchet
Should: Blanchet
Preference: Blanchet

I don't know how Ebert could possibly think Madsen will win this one. Come on. She virtually had 1 important scene, though she did it the best any actress could, Cate delivered on a harder level.

Animated
Will: Incredibles
Should: Shrek 2
Preference: shrek 2

Foreign Film
Will: Sea Inside
Should: Sea Inside (granted I've only seen Chorus from the rest)
Preference: Sea Inside

I haven't seen any of the documentaries!



If Million Dollar Baby sweeps, I'll be extatic, but I can't see it happening.

Anybody who thinks Foxx isn't a lock for Ray needs to have their head examined.

Very very true...

A.O. Scott said Ray will win Best Picture. :razz: Most should agree Jamie is a lock though.

A.O. Scott also thinks that critics only like Sideways because they think they will be able to have sex with Virginia Madsen.

So he is not a good source!

Roger Ebert is the man, he thinks Tupac Resurrection should win best Doc \:D/ Oh and Chicago Tribune sucks \:D/

I wholeheartedly agree with him and RAY should Win... I mean let's consider this for a moment: What will all of you do if somehow through the Grace of God, RAY Manages to come out of nowhere and pull it off beating out both AVIATOR and MDB, a movie no one would see coming??? Would you be crushed?? Shocked??? What?? I mean, RAY is a Fantastic movie and Jamie Foxx does play the role superbly and it's a movie that is well done and a fine tribute.. Why shouldn't it be recognized?? How would you folks feel if it pulled it off in an upset??

Since I was unable to secure a producing credit on any of the five nominated films this year, I wouldn't be too heartbroken over it.

Worse films have won.

Dude...how can you say that ray should win....you HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN M$B or Aviator.....

Yeah?? And I don't have to either... I saw RAY and was immediately sold on it...Also looks like Ray Charles Swept the Grammy Awards with 8 Grammys according to this link:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... mu/grammys

It would be even more beautiful if RAY Won Best Picture out of nowhere proving everyone wrong who feels this movie has no chance of winning Best Picture which in itself is Assinine..

^^^^BKB....seriously you make me laugh...at you:laugh:


Its ludacris and...well...ignorant to try and hail a movie as the best pic, and a sure fire oscar winner when you havent seen the others.


I know that M$B AND AVIATOR are not your typical blood and guts, played out horror "VS" type movies...but they are good

WIth that I end this debate, because it is pointless to continue it...its as if Im arguing with a child( a very young child...haha)

Hey BKB, maybe you can go ahead and predict next years winners...obviously you dont need to see the movies!! LOL

WIth that I bid farewell to this debate


so Long! \:D/

Explain to me WHY I have to see MDB or AVIATOR in order to form an opinion as to which movie I think should win BEST PICTURE, when I've seen 1 Oscar Nominated movie that's already sold me on it??? Explain this??? WHY should I go out of my way and see MDB, a movie so over praised to the point that it's turned me off along with the AVIATOR??? You say you bid farewell to this so called debate if that's what you want to call it, when in fact, you follow me around thread to thread, post to post and reply to my every move... Bottom line: I think RAY should win BEST PICTURE and you don't.. Now what??? Obviously, I'm not alone in my assessment of thinking this movie should win now am I???

No your not alone...but if you want to go by box office success, well AVIATOR should win...since it HAS grossed the most money....

Just feedin ya what you spew buddy :wink:

How would you know if a movie is overly praised if you havnt even seen it yet, lol dope. Didnt you like Mystic River? MDB is better then Mystic River imo. BKB I think you just like to say BS you dont even belive is true, you just say things just to rile people up, that has to be it, otherwise you're just crazy.

Uh, kid you don't have to see a movie to determine whether it's overlypraised or not just based on reading the critics reviews of MDB and how they go on and on about it you Dope.. I did enjoy MYSTIC RIVER, but if I had seen this movie at the time it was Nominated, I wouldn't of thought it was BEST PICTURE Material.. Not at all...

Reviews? Coming from the person who thinks everyone should give white noise a change regardless of the HORRIBLE reviews

bkb, honestly...you like movies...You would like both aviator and million dollar baby

Lost in Translation is the definition of overpraised and I can actually say that, seeing as i've actually seen it. You cant judge a movie before you see it, sorry. Unless you wanna look like a dumbass :wink:

Gee?? I thought you said you were done debating this and you were outta here?? You can't fucking resist repsonding to me..

Yeah?? And I saw that to and it should've won BEST PICTURE over the much overrated ROTK that did NOT deserve to sweep the oscars, not at all.. The only reason ROTK even swept it was because they were making up for snubbing the other 2 films at previous oscars and had ROTK not of won BEST PICTURE, the fans would've hung themselves and went on a suicide rampage over it... Once again, I saw RAY and I'm simply content with this movie being BEST PICTURE Material and I'm obviously not alone on that.. I don't have to see MDB or AVIATOR to think otherwise.. I'm not the least bit concerned about those 2 movies.. I'm not and don't care... Maybe like MYSTIC RIVER, I'll wait for it to come on DVD, but I have no desire to see these 2 movies in the theatres at all..

Lol I agree with ROTK, they're decent flicks - but just didnt do it for me. Though I did love Ray, I just dont think it's oscar material ( except for Jamie Foxx's performance ) It's pretty sad Ray got nominated for best picture instead of Hotel Rwanda, though it wouldnt of had a chance to win - but I dont think Ray does either, odds are it'll probably come in 4th or 5th in the voting. You never know though

^^^I agree about Rwanda...I just saw it tonight.

I have seen all the oscar films, and Im stuck between M$B and Aviator, although I think Rwnada should have been in there somewhere.