Well, just like the Best Picture thread, this one is for the best actor nominations.

However, for some reason, this category doesn't appear to be as easily predicted as the Best Picture one. There are some possibilities, but by far not locks or clear favorites at this point. Liam Neeson in Kinsey, Jamie Foxx in Ray and Javier Bardem in Mar Adentro come the closest to be locks right now.

My see these getting nominated winnder in bold):

Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
Javier Bardem (Mar Adentro)
Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)


What are your predictions?

I think Jamie Foxx is a possible, i dont know about the others!
i havent seen ESOASM, but was it that good the performence of Jim Carrey to recive a nomination??

can Jim Caviezel get a nomination?!?

This category is going to be one of the most competitive one. I'm going to go with some of the wild cards here

Jim Caviziel - This could have a shot since the academy normally awards at least one blockbuster movie with a few awards like they did for Forest Gump and LOTR. I can see them doing the same for the Passion and it my pick up a few nominations in the Best Picture,director and actor category.

Christian Bale - There is always some history with oscars nominating people who go through the process in gaining and losing weight just like they did for Charlize Theron, Robert Deniro, and Tom Hanks. But here Bale goes to the extreme end of losing up to 65 pounds making him look like a holocaust victim. The movie also is getting rave reviews also so it may help Bale's chances

Jamie Foxx - I feel that he will win the oscar for his portrayal of Ray Charles and thats what most of the critics are predicting too

Javier Bardem - I heard from the reviews he is just 20 something and one of Spain's best actor and he is supposed playing someone in his 50s too convincingly

Liam Neeson - Kinsey has been receiving a warm welcome at the Toronto film festival

Anybody think that Bill Murray will be nominated for Life Aquatic?

I think he has a chance but this category is too competitive for it too happen this year for him.

My predictions in order of likelihood:

1. Jamie Foxx (Ray)
2. Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
3. Javier Bardem (The Sea Within, or whatever it's called)
4. Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
5. Jeff Bridges (The Door In The Floor)

Also very possible:

Leonardo Dicaprio (The Aviator)
Jim Cavieziel (TPOTC - I really hope this happens)

What about billybob in FNL?

Right now I see three locks:

1. Jamie Foxx (Ray)
2. Javier Bardem (The Sea Within)
3. Liam Neeson (Kinsey)

And about 5 other people vying for the other two spots. My picks now are
4. Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
5. Leonardo Dicaprio (The Aviator)

I see either Foxx or Bardem winning.

Yes, in my book it is the performance of a year.


The movie is not high profile enough, and he's not getting the kudos he needs.

Jamie Foxx and Javier Bardem are the leads here based on existing buzz.

I think Foxx will be the eventual winner actually (even though I haven't seen the movie doh!). In addition to the performance getting great reviews, the success of Collateral, Foxx's rising star, and I'm sorry if this offends, but I'll be honest, the fact that there is and was an opportunity for a highly acclaimed, serious performance by a black actor is just too good of a story for the Academy to pass up.

locks:
Javier Bardem - The Sea Within/Adrift/Water in My Shorts/(Insert Title Here)
Jamie Foxx - Unchain My Heart, The Ray Charles Story (the origional title!)

Elevated chances:
Jim Carrey - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind of the Series of Unfortunate Events
Tom Cruise - Collateral 2: Cruise Control
Liam Neeson - Kinsey's List

Maybe
Jim Cavaziel - The Passion of the Jebus
Johnny Depp - Finding Nemo's Neverland
Leo DiCaprio - The Last Temptation of the Aviator of New York
Jude Law - Alfie's one step Closer to the World of Tomorrow

Probably not:
Billy Murray - The Life Aquatic

You are DREAMING!
Christian Bale - The Machinist Returns
Jeff Bridges - The Floor in the Door

Kevin Bacon (The Woodsman)
Jarvier Bardem (The Sea Within)
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)

You're damn skippy I do!

You know who gives a good performance? Cary Elwes in Saw. It'll never be nominated for an Oscar, but if I ran the show, he would get a nomination.

Johnny Depp (Neverland)
Leonardo Di Caprio (aviator)
Tom Hanks (The Terminal) [he always gets nominated]
James Caviziel (The Passion of the Christ)
Colin Farrell (Alexander)

Snrub would beg to differ...

I think his performance was very decent, but not really oscar-worthy.

I'm just currious about something. Would David Carradine's work as Bill in Kill Bill -- Vol 2 be considered as a lead or supporting role?

Supporting, I'd say, but chances of him being nominated are equal to a snowball in hell.

Cary Elwes in SAW!?!? I would be to differ..that was absolutely the worst performance by an actor on screen this year...I think he should get a Razzie for that movie.

Adding to my earlier comments, I've seen Hotel Rwanda and Don Cheadle is amazing in that movie, definitely worthy of a nomination and I've seen Finding Neverland a second time, and I think young Freddie Highmore (who steals the scenes from Johnny Depp) deserves a Supporting Actor nom.

Wow...there's been no love for Don Cheadle at all? You're all missing out on an amazing performance in an amazing movie. Could even pull the Adrian Brody this year.

You are right. I just forgot about him. I'd replace DiCaprio or Carrey with him on my list.

Javier Bardem (The Sea Within)
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda) -- the big suprise.
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)

Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
Javier Bardem (The Sea Within)
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
Colin Farrell (Alexander)

Christian Bale, dreaming?

Um no...maybe if you'd seen the movie you'd know this was a pretty amazing performance.

Alot of your are getting way to ahead of yourselves. Colin Farrel? Please! Kinsey? I think these are to early to claim Oscar rights.

With Alexander being bashed the heck out of, Colin Farrell's possible nom is out of question.

Johnny Depp and Liam Neeson have been constantly getting more buzz recently with Finding Neverland and Kinsey.

Javier Bardem in Mar Adentro and Jamie Foxx in Ray are locks anyway, I would say.

That leaves one open spot. Contenders are Jim Carrey, Leonardo DiCaprio, Don Cheadle, Jim Caviziel and some others. At the moment, I give a slight egde to Don Cheadle.

Therefore my new predictions:

Javier Bardem (Mar Adentro)
Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

It sounds like Clint Eastwood is getting a lot of strong buzz for his performance in Million Dollar Baby. Some are even saying it's his best performance and he should get a best actor nod. I didn't think this race could get any tighter, but it looks like it is.

1. Jamie Foxx (ray)
2. Johnny Depp
3. Liam Nesson
4. Don Cheadle
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
6. Jude Law (Closer)
7. Javier Bardem
8. Clint Eastwood (Million$Baby)
9. Gael Garcai Bernal (Bad Education/Motorcycle Diaries)
10. Colin Farrell (Alexander)
11. Paul Giamatti
12. Jim Caviezel
13. Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine)


That's my list for now. I will go in depth later this weekend like I ahve done with Best Picture and Best Actress

My analysis:


Jamie Foxx - He is a shoe-in for a nomination. I don't see anything that should prevent him from being nominated. His performance has been praised in all reviews of this movie and overall the movie got very warm reception from the critics as well as from the audiences. The box-office gross is better than Ali's and so are this movie's reviews. It has got a good release slot and he has buzz which shall only increase during the award season. Jamie Foxx has also had a praised performance in Collateral and that can only help. He is one of the year's biggest frontrunners. He is a lock for a nomination, but I doubt that the Academy will give the Best Actor Oscar to an African-American actor so fast after Denzel Washington.

Liam Neeson - Kinsey is getting great reviews and might as well be a candidate for a Best Picture nomination. However, one shall remember that the movie is almost completely carried by Neeson and a nom for him is inevitable. Critics praise his performance, however the content of the movie might be a bit too delicate for the Academy and the movie might be just too small.

Johnny Depp - He has gotten raves for his performance as Captain Jack Sparrow in last year's Pirates of the Caribbean and I have a feeling that just then the Academy realized what an underrated actor he is. Since then he became one of Hollywood's most acclaimed stars. His performances in Ed Wood, Edward Scissorhands and even Blow went rather unnoticed by many award shows and now the Hollywood seems to realize its mistake. He has been nominated last year and with all the great reviews and the good resonance Finding Neverland is getting, he will probably be nominated this year as well. The movie is doing well in semi-limited release and if its further box-office performace is at least very decent, he will be a lock for a nomination and a very likely winner.

Don Cheadle - Don is one of those actors whose face many people know, but not his name. He has been in many supporting roles, acting along many superstars, but has never recieved the attention and the credit he deserves. This year might be his. Hotel Rwanda has been described as this year's "Schindler's List" and it has already won in Toronto. The whole content of a movie about a selfless hero who saves hundreds of innocent lives is definitely oscar material. I have a feeling that this movie might be this year's Dark Horse at the oscars. It just reminds me of The Pinaist for which Adrien Brody surprisingly won an Oscar. Also the fact that the movie is based on a true story won't hurt. I believe that Don Ceadle is definitely one of the frontrunners and will get more buzz later.

Jim Carrey - Many reviewers have said that his performance in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind has been his career-best. However, the same has been said about Man on the Moon and The Truman Show. The Golden Globes like Jim Carrey, but Academy apparently doesn't. Another problem of this movie is that it has been released in March and didn't make a huge impact on the box-office. Kaufman's movies usually get acting nominations, despite not being nominated for Best Picture, but in Eternal Sunshine's case, I fear the acting attention will go to Kate Winslet and not Carrey.

Javier Bardem - He is the biggest frontrunner at the moment, in my opinion. Mar Adentro (The Sea Within) has gotten splendid reviews and it was a huge local hit in Spain. Javier Bardem's performance has been praised by everyone. He is considered Spain's best actor at the moment and he has already gotten a Best Actor nomination some years ago for Before Night Falls. His role in The Sea Within is the material that the oscars are made of. A true story of a disabled man fighting for his dignity for decades. It is a definite oscar-bait and it is a shoe-in for a Best Foreign Picture nomination as well as Best Actor. Out of all frontrunners, Bardem has the best chance to win, in my opinion.

Gael Garcai Bernal - His performance in The Motorcycle Diaries might have been good, but the movie didn't make nearly enough impact. Bad Education is NC-17 and something tells me that the Academy won't touch an NC-17 movie. Furthermore, I doubt that the Academy will nominate two Spanish-speaking actors at once and Javier Bardem is a much stronger contender. I think at this point Gael Garcai Bernal is out of the race.

Clint Eastwood - I am very unsure on this one. I have read little to nothing about his new movie, but some people here claim to have read raving reviews and I have no reason not to believe them. It is remarkable that despite such a great career, Eastwood has still no Best Actor Oscar. This year might change it. At the moment, I doubt that he will get nominated, but if he is indeed nominated, then he will be a very likely sympathy-winner.

Jim Caviziel - I believe that he is out of the race. The movie while it was huge at the box-office caused a lot of controversy and I doubt it'll fare well at the awards and recieve any major noms (with the possible exception of Best Director). The Best Actor race is tight this year and I see no space for Caviziel. He was good in the movie, but his performance has definitely not been amazing.

Leonardo DiCaprio - If The Aviator turns out to be the hoped for great movie with 10+ nominations, I can easily see one for DiCaprio as well. His performance in both Gangs of New York and Catch me if you can was underrated and the Academy might make up for it this year. But as I said, it'll only happen if The Aviator is really good and becomes the by far main frontrunner this year. However, I do not believe in DiCaprio winning.


My predictions:

Javier Bardem (Mar Adentro)
Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

In the end, I believe, it will be between Depp and Bardem, unless Cheadle pulls a real surprise. However, at the moment, I give the edge to Bardem.