Well, you know how it goes.

And we have our winner!

I still don't see Ledger getting any mentions come December. It seems way too much like a fanboy wet dream for now...

If ANY blockbuster gets an acting nomination, I would say it's Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder. And that is VERY much pushing it.

In blackface?
No fucking way.

If Downey, Jr. gets nominated for anything this year, it will be The Solist. He won't get it for Tropic Thunder because it's an action-comedy that will surely stir controversy, and he doesn't have the kind of "Johnny Depp as Jack Sparrow" backing to pull it off for Iron Man. At this point, I'd bet that he gets nothing.

Even though Benjamin Button seems likely to get him a Best Actor nom, after watching the trailer for Burn After Reading, I'd say that Brad Pitt looks Oscar-nom-worthy, and the Coens are surely gonna get attention for this film after how well they performed last year.

Actually, that's possible. The Academy likes to ignore films like Burn (where the director/writer had a BP winner the previous year), but Supporting Actor nominations are some of the few they're winning to hand out. Just think of Annie Hall...the year later, Woody Allen made "Manhattan" (which was just as well received, if not better), but it was only to pick up a Screenplay and Supporting Actress nom.

Actually, he did Interiors between those two, and that movie, in spite of mixed reviews and disappointing B.O., got 5 nominations, including Direction and two acting awards. Weeeeeird.

The Oscar follow-up curse is mainly a recent phenomenon, and has gotten worse every year it seems. The closest any director has come to beating it is Clint, who followed MDB up with FOOF, which bombed before Iwo Jima became his comeback. Quite crazy.

But outside of maybe Screenplay, I don't see much for Burn After Reading.

The problem with Burn After Reading isn't so much the follow-up curse as it is the idea that it just doesn't really look like an Oscar movie. But then again, No Country didn't at first glance either (or at least not like a Picture winner).

Is it just me or is this category INSANELY weak this year? I'm strugging to come up with 5 noms.

I just picked four who are having (or going to have) great years, plus Ledger (who did not have such a great year). Downey Jr, Brolin, PSH, and Pitt.

Ledger
Smit-McPhee (just read the book, though this depends on the movie coming out this year)
Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Brolin
Sheen for Frost/Nixon

Universal is pushing Michael Sheen for Lead Actor (for now, anyway).

Stupid.

Then...maybe Franco in Milk. I don't know...

Is that in doubt?

Well, the studio is interfering with the production, there aren't any trailers despite the film being a month away...

Yeah, this category is looking to be mostly filler this year....like...umm....every category.

Eddie Marsan from Happy-go-Lucky was REALLY great but I don't know if anyone/anything besides Sally Hawkins will get attention from that film. If so, then it will definitely be him.

There's always that supporting performance that goes nowhere nomination-wise.

Agreed.

Hell, he was even better than Hawkins. THAT scene with him at the end....amazing!

Yeah. I was actually afraid of admitting it (I don't know why) but I, too, would say he was better than Hawkins. He stole every scene he was in. Yeah, and that last scene was just....

I'm drawing out my predictions right now and decided to put in Marsan, I couldn't think of anyone better really, and that's even with putting Michael Sheen in this category (I think the studio will change their approach by the time of the heavy campaigning when they realize lead is way too hard and supporting is way too easy). I'm not feeling Smit-Mcphee or anything from The Road.

I'm really afraid for the Road now that I hear of studio tampering and the total lack of trailers or posters.

I'm still pulling for Downey Jr. to be nominated for his work as Kirk Lazarus.