Thoughts?

Potential nominees? Am I missing any (I sure I am) that anybody can add?

Lauren Bacall, Birth
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Julie Christie, Finding Neverland
Irma P. Hall, The Ladykillers
Daryl Hannah, Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Angelina Jolie, Alexander
Regina King, Ray
Cloris Leechman, Spanglish
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Maia Morgenstern, The Passion of the Christ
Natalie Portman, Closer or Garden State
Meyrl Streep, The Manchurian Canidate
Barbara Striesand, Meet the Fockers
Kerry Washington, Ray
Kate Winslett, Finding Neverland (or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind if that's considered "supporting")

And I'm totally not kidding about Barbara Striesand either.

I'm thinking...

Laura Linney, Kinsey
Cloris Leechman, Spanglish
Maia Morgenstern, The Passion of the Christ
Natalie Portman, Closer or Garden State
Meyrl Streep, The Manchurian Canidate

I love angelina Jolie.. But i think Cate Blanchet is such an amazing actress.

If she has a "female-Power role" in the aviator, i think she'll take it.

My predictions (winner in bold):

Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
Laura Linney (Kinsey)
Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
Natalie Portman (Closer or Garden State)
Meyrl Streep (The Manchurian Canidate)

Predictions
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways (this movie will be this year's Lost in Translation)
Natalie Portman, Closer
Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

I'm thinking the winner would be a toss-up between Linney and Winslet.

My gut tells me that Neverland will be the snubbed film of the year (with the Best Actor race all but over by now) and that Winslett will get a best actress nomination but for that little "Eternal Sunshine" movie, which seems to have the weight of the cult-indie audience behind it.

I think, based on the reviews I'm reading, that Linney and Kinsey are going to fight with Closer for the drama spot. If Closer ends up being a strong best picture runner, then I can see both Julia and Natalie having increased chances of getting nominations/wins.

But so far, yeah, it looks like Linney's award.

Here's who I want to get nominated, since I don't feel like predicting:

Meryl Streep- The Manchurian Candidate

Meryl is always fantastic, and her performance in The Manchurian Candidate is no exception. The only thing going against her is Angela Lansburry's oscar nominated performance in the same role, which is considered by many one of the best supporting performances of all time.

Angelina Jolie- Alexander

It's a very dark, very evil role for Angelina. And she could very well be the scene-stealer of the movie, as seen in the trailer. The film may get snuubed in some acting categories, but Supporting Actress (and maybe Supporting Actor, for Val Kilmer) seems like the safest bet for Alexander IMO.

Maia Morgenstern- The Passion of the Christ

Critics have agreed that her performance is spectacular. I think so as well, as she conveys so much emotion without even saying a word sometimes. Only thing is, if the film gets locked out of Best Picture, her chances are minimal for getting nominated.

Daryl Hannah- Kill Bill Vol. 2

Daryl Hannah was fantastic in Kill Bill Vol. 2. But if Mirimax focuses to much on Uma, or doesn't compaign for the film at all, her chances are down the drain.

Cate Blanchett- The Aviator

She's possibly the closest thing to a lock right now IMO. She's playing a legendary actress, and that alone could garner her a nomination. Anything going against her? Hardly, but they might push her for Best Actress instead (i've read this on several other sites).

If the list contained 3 or more of these nominees, I'd be very, very, happy. [/i]

No one's mentioned Julie Christie for Finding Neverland. I personally don't think she'll get nominated, but she does have a chance.

Yeah, and I should also mention Irma P. Hall from The Ladykillers. She did win the Jury Prize in Cannes this year.

It seems that this might be the easiest category to predict this year. (Now watch me be totally wrong).

My choices:

1. Laura Linney (Kinsey)
2. Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
3. Natalie Portman (Closer)
4. Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
5. Cloris Leachman (Spanglish)
Alternate - Meryl Streep (The Manchurian Candidate or A Series Of Unfortunate Events - NEVER count Meryl out!)

I could easily see any of these ladies winning, but at the moment Blanchett's buzz is quickly building.

Most Aviator reviews state that Cate Blanchett shines in the movie and basically steals the whole movie. I still stick with my original predictions. I believe that Winslet will get a Best Actress nom for Eternal Sunshine, but not a supporting one for Finding Neverland.

It appears as though we already have 4 pretty definitive nominees:

Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer

This last spot is a toss-up, though. Kate Winslet? Meryl Streep? Cloris Leechman? Sophie Okonedo? Sharon Warren?

I wouldn't call Madsen a lock at this point. A movie like Sideways can easily be snubbed by the Academy, just like last year's American Splendor.

I would think that this lays with politics

But After seeing Closer

I think Natalie Portman should be a Best Actress Nom

and Julia Roberts the Best Supporting Nominee.

Anyone have comments if this is possible.

It is not. Go the the FYC Ads Thread, you'll see that Portman put up for Best Supporting consideration and Roberts for Best.

OK, I was asking what people think. Cause After seeing the movie - I think Portman was the star. Doesn't that determine the Best Actress.

Like I said above, is this politics which is decided when a star like Roberts signed on 9 Maybe in her contract. Or do they feel Roberts is the best.

- I don't remember the opening of how they were listed but at the end they were in order of appearance with Portman first and Roberts later.

You asked if it is possible. And as a matter of fact, it is not.

LOL, As we both know how often you are wrong, I will wait for others to answer.

Oh and would you mind telling me how exactly often I am wrong?

OK, Lecter if you are asking.

- Your pick for Eternal to be #1 in that awards was shocking to me. Then it didn't even make the top 10 and got honorable mention with what 10 other movies.

That said, all I want to wait until others comments. UNLESS YOU ARE 100 % SURE OF HOW HOLLYWOOD CONTRACTS WORK. DO YOU KNOW WHAT WAS IN JULIA ROBERTS CONTRACT.

Hopefully, as we know your opinion, we can wait for others to answer.

Your utter ignorance and unwillingness to understand is highly annoying, therefore here you go:

God, Lecter again you don't get it. No surprise. I can't say this any simplier.

I asked based on seeing the movie and Portman having a bigger and meatier role, how do they decide Best or Supporting.

- For a star like Roberts, is that decided before the movie is started or in her contract.

When is the decision made on who to nominate for what.

NOW, HOPEFULLY I HAVE MADE THE QUESTION SIMPLE ANYONE CAN UNDERSTAND IT.

Julia is being marketed as the star of the film, or at least a bigger role than Portman's. Maybe they all should be Lead, but that's ridiculous if the studio would do that. To have a better chance at more nomination, they split the 4 up into the 4 respective categories, and sinec Portman is the lesser known actress, she gets Supporting.

It depends on how the studio markets the movie and who they push for the lead. If all ads as well as the studio push Roberts for Lead, the Academy voters won't come out and proclaim Portman the lead, no matter how it really is. A good example is Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs. Considering his screen-time he shouldn't be the lead of the movie, but much rather a supporting actor. Nonetheless, Lead was what studio pushed him for and where he ended up being nominated and winning.

Lecter is quite right about this one. Another instance i remember is Adaptation where the confusion was if it was an adapted or an original screenplay. The studio took its stance on it.

The FYC decide pretty much what something will be marketed as. In this case, Portman will be marketed for best supporting actress so nomination for a best lead performance is close to impossible.

Ok Baba,

But in case you didn't go back far enough, there was the question. When is the decision made on who to nominate for what.

Is it made after the movie is made and fully reviewed or is it made much earlier in the process.

I was asking if anyone knew the process of the selections presented.