Variety - Best Pic Analysis

Chances and glances at this year's nominees

By STUART LEVINE

Nothing this year could be as different as it was 12 months ago in the picture category, when "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King""The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King" was such an absolute lock it turned Oscar's most anticipated category into an afterthought.

High drama has returned to the big race, with the picture outcome possibly hinging on how the director's competition goes.

There's plenty of speculation that the battle between Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood could determine the big trophy, too. Some awards onlookers are saying that if Scorsese wins for "The Aviator," then "Million Dollar Baby" will take home the big prize, and vice versa, to give both men something to take home.

That's a distinct possibility. Each film has its fervent supporters, though it seems fans of "Million Dollar Baby" have been more vocal as of late.

Though the pic came out Dec. 15 -- as Eastwood was putting the final post-production pieces in place after he and Warner Bros. determined that the film had serious Oscar potential -- that late date seems be playing to "Baby's" advantage as momentum seems to be in its favor.

Still, 18 of the past 20 years, the film with the most noms has taken home the picture prize, and "Aviator's" 11 trumps "Million Dollar Baby's" seven.

"Aviator" is a supremely solid, if not spectacular, piece of filmmaking by Scorsese and, most would agree, a great improvement over "Gangs of New York." Scorsese has never been honored with a helmer prize nor have any of his films won the pic prize. Sentiment has been growing ever since "Raging Bull" lost to "Ordinary People" in 1980. Seems at this point even a home movie by the director would get serious consideration.

Speaking of momentum, "Sideways" seems to be losing it, despite its win at the Golden Globes in the music/comedy category. Opening to stellar reviews in October, pic was the darling of critics this year, but the omission of Paul GiamattiPaul Giamatti from the actor race might mean the accolades could be drying up.

"Sideways" is a case where reviews were so terrific that it might've set expectations too high for auds and voters.

"Ray" got some Oscar love when helmer Taylor HackfordTaylor Hackford -- who was left off many guild and critics lists -- picked up a director mention. Its inclusion in the picture race is a testament to both Hackford and lead thesp Jamie FoxxJamie Foxx.

"Finding Neverland" seems the most lightweight film of the bunch. That being said, being in this exclusive group of only five pics is an achievement and the film's performances -- Johnny DeppJohnny Depp, Kate WinsletKate Winslet and youngster Freddie Highmore -- were all universally praised.


"Aviator"
Current kudos: Golden Globes (win), PGAPGA (win), BAFTABAFTA (nom), Broadcast Film Critics (nom)

Why it will win: It has the heft and feel of a picture champ and a Golden Globes drama win already on its mantel. High production values, an A-list star in Leonardo DiCaprioLeonardo DiCaprio, (mostly) terrific reviews, released just at the right time and, maybe most importantly, a respected director in Martin Scorsese who's never taken home the big prize.

Why it won't: While everyone admires and respects the film, it's not clear if there are enough voters out there truly passionate about it. "Sideways" and "Million Dollar Baby" seem to be the two films in this category that have the most fervent followers.
What critics say: " 'The Aviator' may well be the movie that breaks the director's longstanding Oscar jinx. Can the Academy's venerable membership ignore a film that features both a glittering Grauman's Chinese Theater movie premiere and a splashy Cocoanut Grove party? And how about a movie that offers terrific aerial footage, enhanced by CGI effects? " 'The Aviator' is Mr. Scorsese's shiniest film, and the Academy loves polish," says Phillip Wuntch, Dallas Morning News.

"Finding Neverland"
Current kudos: National Board of Review (win), BAFTA (nom), Broadcast Film Critics (nom), Golden Globes (nom), PGA (nom)
Why it will win: There's always room for an underdog -- and when they occur, the Brits always seem to end up on top. "Chariots of Fire" defeated two strong American pics ("Reds" and "On Golden Pond") and then there was "Shakespeare in Love""Shakespeare In Love" knocking off favorite "Saving Private Ryan."

And "Shakespeare," don't forget, was also a Miramax pic.
Why it won't: While it's enormously sweet and good-hearted, the fragile, small-scale subject matter doesn't stand the test of time to be included with best picture winners that carry such gravitas as "The Godfather" and "Unforgiven." And only twice in 76 years has a pic won the top prize without its director being nommed.
What critics say: "At its best, 'Neverland' pays sad, sweet tribute to Depp's intelligence as an actor and to (director Marc) Forster's ability to avoid the most mawkish of sentiments," says Robert Denerstein, Rocky Mountain News.

"Million Dollar Baby"
Current kudos: National Society of Film Critics (win); Broadcast Film Critics (nom), Golden Globes (nom), PGA (nom)

Why it will win: The third act hits harder than an Ali right hook to the head. And even before then, we have a film that does everything well: terrific acting, steady direction and a story that doesn't waste a moment in moving the plot forward.

Why it won't: If "Aviator" wasn't in the race, "Baby" might be a slam dunk. But there's so much admiration for Scorsese that it wouldn't be a major surprise if either film wins.

What critics say: "Staying at the top of his game when most of his contemporaries have long since hung up their gloves, Clint Eastwood delivers another knockout punch with 'Million Dollar Baby.' As if 'Unforgiven' and 'Mystic River' weren't grave enough, this endlessly resourceful filmmaker goes just as dark and deep in this slow-burning drama of a determined female boxer and her hard-shelled trainer, a tale Eastwood invests with rewarding reserves of intimacy, tragedy, tenderness and bitter life knowledge," says Todd McCarthy, Daily Variety.

"Ray"
Current kudos: Broadcast Film Critics (nom), Golden Globes (nom)
Why it will win: Who knows, maybe Jamie Foxx's performance is big enough to carry both the Oscar for himself and one for the film, too. Top-notch supporting actresses Regina King and Sharon Warren went unrecognized in their respective categories, but voters might give them credit here with a picture win.

Why it won't: Certainly the most feel-good pic of the five nominees -- nobody sat through "Finding Neverland" clapping in their seat -- music isn't enough to propel "Ray" over the two favorites.

What critics say: "For many older people in the audience, the sound of Ray Charles' impassioned music is inseparable from memories of dating, dancing, lovemaking, and loss. 'Ray' has the bold good grace to honor the enraptured kids they once were and the sterner but still hungry grown-ups they have become," says David Denby, The New Yorker.

"Sideways"
Current kudos: Boston Film Critics (win), Broadcast Film Critics (win), Chicago Film Critics (win), Golden Globes (win), Los Angeles Film Critics (win), New York Film Critics (win), Independent Spirit Awards (nom), Online Film Critics (nom), PGA (nom)

Why it'll win: The film landed on more top 10 lists than any other. "Sideways" resonated with critics and united scribes in ways that few films do these days.

Why it won't: Comedy -- the genre in which Fox Searchlight is promoting this film -- often has a hard time breaking through voters' traditional preference for dramas and epics.
What critics say: "Alexander Payne has made four wonderful movies: 'Citizen Ruth,' 'Election,' the Jack Nicholson tragicomedy 'About Schmidt,' and now this. He finds plots that service his characters, instead of limiting them. The characters are played not by the first actors you would think of casting, but by actors who will prevent you from ever being able to imagine anyone else in their roles" says Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times.

Well, that clears up nothing. :razz:

This makes no mention of Million's DGA win, meaning this article was likely written before then.

The DGA win is what makes the race murky.

It ran yesterday but makes no mention of the DGA's. That is strange but it does seem pretty wide open at this point.

I think they only mention Best Picture wins and noms, no Best Director ones

That would explain it. Thanks.

I think it becomes clearer by the day , what movie is the frontrunner for Best Picture. :grin:

At thsi point, even though I said I was rootin for Million Dollar Baby, I think The Aviator is just such an amazing piece of movie-making that I can't see how it can lose out the Best Picture, and I'm kinda leaning on it to win. It is no doubt a bigger accomplishment than Baby because of all the work involved, more actors, more set pieces and everything altogether. I still think Baby is the better film by the slightest margin.... Basically, I'll be pleased either way, though I want Eastwood to take the Directing trophy home. I think the Academy might just not like Scorsese or his type of film making. He's a director of epic proportions, while Eastwood is the more personal and close-knit director. Scorsese is more for polish and detail while Eastwood goes directly for the biggest swings.

Scorsese has been nominated 6 times. The Academy obviously likes him.

While I think part of the reason why Lord of the Rings or Titanic won was because of the mammoth proportion of the productions, I don't think that means that we should value these overbudget epics with a Best Picture win every year. I don't think The Aviator is really any more of an achievement than Sideways is. Lost in Translation, in fact, was in many ways a bigger achievement than any of the Best Picture nominees last year.k

Maybe Sideways SHOULD win this year

I also don't really buy this bullshit about Scorsese being this director that is aloof and technical and Eastwood is the king of melodrama. Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator have much more in common with each other than 90% of the other films out there.

I think anyone who thinks The Aviator is a lock to win is, honestly, fooling themself.

Million Dollar Baby has to be considered a formidable competitor, considering the DGA win and immense recent buzz.

While at this point I don't thihnk anything can be a lock even up to the minute the Director Oscar is given out.
But The Aviator has the advantage and is the front-runner because it is such an Oscar-freindly film and not just that, it soars above its expectations and it actually is one of the best films of the year.

Of the 5 Oscar nominted Best Picture films, the Aviator did undertake the most work and long hours (the only one that may come close or compete on this level is Ray). I think anyone who doubts that is fooling themselves.

I'm just sayin don't get surprised if Oscar goes its usual way. I mean, it IS all about politics.
Eastwood's Actor nom may have been his reward, even though I think it mgiht not and hope it wasn't. it is possible.

All I am saying is...
1) I'm rooting for Eastwood for Best Director
2) right now I'm rooting for both Baby and Aviator to win and won't be disappointed either way
3) don't get all upset if Aviator takes both top prizes
4) there might actually be a possibility that Marty loses out AGAIN but wins Best Picture.

Besides all those movies Scorsese was nominated for before all were among the top movies and directing of their respective years... nods were no brainers. Not awarding Scorsese (and awarding Polanski last time!!!!!) shows they don't exactly LOVE the guy.

The only thing getting clearer by the day is the fact that Best Picture isn't a lock for anyone, unlike seemingly any other year in recent memory.

Anyone completely discounting The Aviator (not my pick out the five), it has Oscar history on it's side.

For those fanatic Million $ Baby fans out there, I wouldn't spend so much time creating "Eastwood's Acting Chops are Great" threads. I don't want you to be sidelined and scrambling to create "Why Aviator and Marty Won" threads on Oscar night.

If it hurts you to see those threads, just pretend they don't exist, and you'll feel better. :wink:

I stick with my Eastwood - director, The Aviator - Picture predictiong. The theme of The Aviator appeals to Hollywood immensly. I mean it is about the Golden Era in Hollywood and shows so many beloved Hollywood stars of that time. Moreover, it'll be the highest grossing Best Picture nominee by the time of the awards and it also has the most nominations.

Well, it has the most nominations, but not the most of the IMPORTANT nominations. That would be M$B as well. \:D/ Get used to hearing that named called out on the 2th. Best picture, best director, best actress, best supporting actress. Marty's flick will get some tech awards...

Do you understand that tech noms are very relevant for a win because The Aviator has way more guild support through these tech noms? If anything, it's a big advantage.

The funny thing is, our roles this year are completely reversed than last year.

I'm enjoying not being in the flock and you're Little Bo Peep. :wink:

For what it's worth, I like the change of pace.

But next year, hopefully they'll be an epic or two to unite us all instead of the hodgepodge of excellence that is this year's Oscar race.

Do you understand that acting WINS (and M$B has two favorites to do that, compared to Aviator having one possibility in the supporting actress category ) , as well as Eastwood's front runner as best director, means more than those tech awards?

I'm enjoying my wool this year. \:D/

Next year may indeed put out something that we both can get behind. Cameron needs to do something that garners some nominations. I could get behind that!

As much as I loved Aliens of the Deep, come on Jim, the world needs a feature film from you.

I'm holding out hope for Ridley Scott in the next Oscar Race.

But...

on topic, in the last 18 of 20 Oscar races, the film that led with nominations, won BP.

Doesn't mean Million Dollar Baby can't be the third, lesser films have beat those odds.

Just means you can't completely discount Oscar history.

Actually, Eastwood is NOT the frontrunner for Best Director, Scorcese is still a frontrunner, I believe (even though I think he'll lose).

Also, Million Dollar Baby is likely to lose Best Screenplay (and so is The Aviator), so no extra support there.

And in the end, remember Chicago...

The Pianist had more acclaim, was according to almost everyone a better movie, it won Best Screenplay AND Best Actor AND Best Director and yet it lost Best Picture against Chicago.

I'm not discounting history, that's why I say Marty won't win. :-({|= #-o

Says who? Eastwood won both the Golden Globe and the DGA. He's clearly the one to beat for that award. The only thing Marty has going for him, is the academy has been known to hand out pity awards, but that doesn't make him the frontrunner., it just means he has a shot.

That's right and that's why you shouldn't discount history. Every other year there has been a Picture/Director split recently:

2004 - Peter Jackson/ROTK
2003 - Roman Polanski/Chicago
2002 - Ron Howard/A Beautiful Mind
2001 - Steven Soderbergh/Gladiator
2000 - Sam Mendes/American Beauty
1999 - Steven Spielberg/Shakespeare in Love

Which means Eastwood takes the Oscar home and so does The Aviator

Well, apart from DGA and Golden Globe (who pretty much everyone expected Eastwood to win becase Marty won for GONY) Scorcese has received more praise from critics' groups and smaller awards.