Oscar ballots mailed to voters ahead of big night

Wed Feb 2, 3:01 PM ET

LOS ANGELES (AFP) - Final ballots to pick the winners of cinema's top honors, the Academy Awards (news - web sites), were sent to 5,808 Oscar voters, less than four weeks ahead of Hollywood's biggest night.

Is it an advantage or disadvantage to anyone that the Oscar voting has waited to start till today? Who benefits?

Well it hasn't really "waited", this is just the general order of things, if anything, the last two years have been rushed. And I would imagine that most Academy members know how they are going to vote (but maybe many of them are swayed into seeing some films they missed).

Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator are pretty neck and neck. Sideway's good b.o. performance and Ray's apparently amazing debut on DVD keep them as viable alternates but not realistic BP/BD contendors. The damage to Finding Neverland has been done with a very vital BD snub, and of the nominees, it's clear that its the picture this year that was lucky just to be invited to the party.

In the public forum (which often doesn't matter): I would say if anybody has been gaining momentum lately it has been Swank and Freeman. Swank seems to grab all the headlines, including those saying that "Benning is just getting the award because she's owed when Swank seems to really deserve it" type of headlines. It should help her to overcome Benning in the end, who's picture is not even accessible to most of the public. Foxx is still a lock and Blanchett, I'm think, will win.

But other than some movement in the top categories, I don't think much is different than it was after the DGA. I do think that there is a lot for the Academy to think about this year when awarding Best Director, but I think Best Picture is maybe easier this year and based on stats, the possibility of a split remains a realistic scenario

That's my perception at least.

Here are some of the big ones to discuss.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Since add-rock has sort of made this the outline your thoughts thread, I'll do the same:

I think Best Actor is the one category closest to a lock, for Jamie Foxx in Ray.

Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are fairly clear, going to Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett.

Best Actress is the fuzziest in my opinion. I can see the award conceivably going to Imelda, Hilary, or Annette. I first thought Hilary, then I thought Annette after her win, and then I led way over towards Imelda. But now Hilary is jumping back up again. I'm still lost.

Best Picture is going to an obvious The Aviator, which has won elsewhere

Best Director is a total toss up between Scorcese and Eastwood, and this will be extremely close between the two, in my opinion, even though statistically, Eastwood is way ahead with his wins with the Globes and DGA.

Original Screenplay is between Aviator and Eternal Sunshine, ending up going to Eternal Sunshine.

Adapted Screenplay is between Sideways and Million Dollar Baby, ending up going to Million Dollar Baby (wow, could Sideways possibly be shut out?)

Just my thoughts.

PEACE, Mike

Now I am not up on these things except Swank for Best Actress and Eastwood for Director but the ones that seem to have been lost in the dust - if they ever really had any chance.

*ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Don't think he ever was a leader here.
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND - and no Neverland nomination

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER - Maybe she still has a chance but people have stopped talking about.

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR - poor Marty
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Now let's get this straight - I think I heard except for Foreign all 5808 voters - vote for all categories.

Someone please confirm who votes for what?

This is how I understand how it works:

During the nominations, guild members who happen to be also Academy members only vote for their guild awards as apply to the Academy and Best Picture.

If you work in Make-Up, you go Best Make-Up and Best Picture.

So if you are a sound guy, you vote for Sound Effects and Sound Effects Editing and Best Picture.

If you are an actor you go Best Actor, Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Best Picture.

If you are Clint Eastwood you go Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Score (hehehehe). This explains why M$B is doing so well j/k

I believe the ballot has three spaces for Best Picture, and they put their top three choices. For the most part, a picture has to have placements mostly in slot 1 and 2 to be nominated (I think it is like 700 slot 1?). So if you had a hardcore audience that wanted say... Mean Girls nominated, all 700 people would have to put Mean Girls in slot one. The entire rest of the academy could ignore it, and it would still be nominated.

Some guilds have scricter rules than others (Score, Make-Up, etc.).

That's just during the nominations.

When it comes to the winners, the entire Academy body gets to vote on every single award. So a film like Lord of the Rings, might not play as well to actors but when the Visual Effects guys get to vote on like... Screenplay, then it can definately swing in Lord of the Ring's favor.

Does that make sense?

Yes, thanks.