What Movies, Performances, Etc are Gaining or Losing Momentum as More Awards are coming out. Now that we are through the Golden Globes.

or

Which of the above have you changed your opinion on whether they will get a Academy Award or even a nomination.

------------

And the Oscar nominations are

*ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

COSTUME DESIGN

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

MUSIC (SONG)

"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

The thing a lot of people are forgetting is that ballots are due on Friday (the 15th) and it is said that most Academy members vote early (ballots sent out on the 27th of Dec) and don't wait til the last minute. This however, is the final week that nominations can be influenced by screenings and possibly acclaim, but at this point I don't think anything is "gaining or losing steam".

I think Hotel Rwanda is a victim of too little too late syndrome. It has been well recieved at screenings but so far hasn't gone anywhere... maybe if the public (who didn't get a chance to see it!) got on board it would have helped, but even the box office totals and general love for this weekend are going to be too late for many. Just as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind hit waaaaaaaaaay too early. Rwanda should have hit in November and given the public some time to react to it, it might have maybe had a better chance to emerge as an "important feature" and be a more solid competator, gaining headlines and momentum. For better or worse, Ray is the closest thing we have right now to the "publics" feature this year, which is why it has a nomination pretty much sewn up.

I don't think momentum on Million Dollar Baby has changed, cheering industry crowds were where we first heard about this film being recieved orgasmically.

Sideways might be developing a bigger backlash, but it wasn't going to win Best Picture or Director anyway.

Box Office increasing can only help The Aviator with its last few votes.

I dunno, at this point, the nominations are pretty much done. Take a snapshot of how the race looked a week ago and it will probably be more to talk about. Once we decided on the nominees, it's almost time to start thinking how the events of this week will translate to actual wins.

I think its very stupid how many Academy members vote early, especially seeing as some of the best movies usally come out at the end of the year.

bump - so as we are through the Globes, after tonight, who do you feel are the Oscar sure bet winners, in your opinion.

Locks for win?

Best Director - Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Best Actor - Jamie Foxx
Best Adapted Screenplay - Sideways
Best Score - Howard Shore, The Aviator
Best Song - "Old Habits", Mick Jagger, from Alfie
Best Animated Film - The Incredibles
Best Visual Effects - Spider-Man 2

Everything else has a good argument against it.

They get special screenings and exclusive DVDs of almost all the competative films in advance.

Agree on all but Score and Director. Direcotr after Eastwood upset for essentially doing everything, and Score unfortunately might not even be able to be nominated based on technicalities. Personally, I find it hillarious that Alfie will win more Oscars then Hotel Rwanda, Spanglish, The Life Aquatic and Finding Neverland will.

There is no evidence that the Golden Globes have any impact on the Oscar race. If Eastwood wins the DGA, you may see a retraction by me. (although, again, I wouldn't be disappointed by an Eastwood win). The Academy will not give Eastwood another win and deny Scorsese.


What technicalities? This is the first I've heard of?


Best Song should be eliminated from the Oscars in my opinion.

At least in the past it's been one of the more surprising categories (Lose Yourself anyone?), but yeah, there is no reason that this should be a category and not ensemble acting.

I would like it but is the Incredibles really a lock over Shrek 2.

What Movies, Performances, Etc are Oscar Winner Sure Bets?


Hillary Swank and Jamie Fox lol sure bet to win.

The Incredibles has a Golden Globe nom and a PGA nomination, and will likely get a screenplay nomination. It's win is a done deal.

Score is so uber weak this year... there are great choices... The Aviator, The Village, Door in the Floor, The Passion of the Christ, The Terminal/Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, We Don't Live Here Anymore, The Incredibles... but few of those stand any chance of getting a nomination...

I'm thinking:

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
The Incredibles
The Passion of the Christ
Ray

Among those, Shore is SO winning again.

The Aviator has best cinematography locked up.

I also think Cate Blanchett will be getting her oscar this year because; (1) she was brilliant and (2) she has done great work in the past, notably for Elizabeth.

Cinematography doesn't always go hand in hand with Best Picture. In fact, since 1999 the trend has been that Picture and Cinematography don't match up at all. I would not be surprised to see one time Academy award nominated (Chicago) Dion Beebe win for Collateral or newbie Tom Stern win for Million Dollar Baby, or even 4 time nominee Caleb Deschanel (the Patriot, Fly Away Home, The Natural, The Right Stuff) win for The Passion of the Christ, over one time winner (JFK) and 4 time nominee (Snow Fallin on Cedars, Born on the Forth of July, Platoon) Robert Richardson for The Aviator.

Year - Picture winner/Cinematography winner
2003 - Return of the King/Master and Commander (King not nominated)
2002 - Chicago/Road to Perdition
2001 - A Beautiful Mind/The Fellowship of the Ring (A Beautiful Mind not nominated)
2000 - Gladiator/Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
1999 - American Beauty/American Beauty
1998 - Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan
1997 - Titanic/Titanic
1996 - The English Patient/The English Patient
1995 - Braveheart/Braveheart
1994 - Legends of the Fall/Forrest Gump

The Aviator is ineligible for Best Score, so that category is wide open.

I agree Marty is a lock for Best Director. Clint winning the globe because globe just awarded Marty a couple of years ago. I don't think best song is a lock yet, neither is best visual effect. On the other hand, Best Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature, and Actor are locked. Technical categories are always hard to say. We know The Aviator will win a few, but which ones.

The Aviator is also pretty close to a lock for best picture. Winning best drama at globe is the key. It will win PGA and BAFTA for sure and most likely DGA.

Damn. The only thing stopping The Aviator from winning Score is it's disqualification.

I'm going with The Incredilbes as winner this year (hopeful nominee maybe?) even though it's in no way a lock.

Just going to bump this up ( don't want to lose all of these early predictions) as there is going to be lots to talk about over the next month.

Cool, nominations are here, let's clap and dance. =D> \:D/

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

COSTUME DESIGN

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

MUSIC (SONG)

"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Vera Drake is a lock for Original Screenplay. The surprise entry always wins here, especially with the boost coming from the best picture nod. Too bad for Eternal Sunshine...

- Only 1 miss is still pretty good. But anyway, what do you think happened?

Vera Drake didn't get best picture nod. I don't see it winning. If Eternal Sunshine doesn't win, The Aviator will take it. Its two surprise nominations does boast Imelda Staunton's chance greatly, considering Benning's Globe speech and the ever-asking question on if Swank deserves two oscars in 6 years. It's like Training Day: having Ethan Hawke nominated showed broader support for the whole movie.

Sorry, I meant the boost from the best director nod...

well,

MArty for Director is a lock
JAmie foxx for Actor
Cate Blanchet for Supporting Actress
Morgan Freeman for Best Supp. Actor
Annette Benning for Best Actress

Those may not all be universal lock, but they are no brainers in my opinion.
all of them are due actors who all turned in awesome and one of the best performances of the year (so it's not only because of the 'due' factor)

The only exception is Jamie Foxx, whihc is the most sure bet out of all fo them.

Annette Bening is far from being a lock. IMO she is only number three behind Staunton and Swank

I don't think Foxx is a sure thing at all. and this isn't having seen any of them. i hate to speak about the "minority" vote, but it has to be put out there. diana Ross (Lady sings the Blues) and Cicely Tyson(sounder) in '72/3 were the last time two african-americans were nominated in the same category. I skimmed a book once that they killed eachother's chaces. well with Foxx's double, Cheadle, and Freeman, that's a double in both. I think its going to affect the outcome. I'll say that Cheadle and foxx are both first time noms and that's going to be "good enough" especially a double for Foxx. Because if we go into the supporting role category its going to Freeman hands down. I saw million dollar baby today and he was excellent in it. with all the actors bing strong the distinction of being the fan fave will go to Freeman. He's been around a long time and had nods in both Glory and driving Mrs. daisy, but he's never won. He's not young anymore either. i think people want him to win and off all the voting trends, Foxx will suffer the most on this account.

as i see it, Foxx walks away ala Julian Moore a few years back, Cheadle goes home empty handed but with some good recognition and maybe more offers to spearhead projects, and Freeman gets Best Supporting Actor. He's a sure thing.