... that There Will Be Blood is winning Best Picture tomorrow night.

I'd like to think it has nothing to do with me loving it so much. I saw it for a second time last night, and about half way through I just kind of had an epiphany that went something like "there is no way the majority of Oscar voters saw this movie and didn't walk away in awe".

So at this point I am expecting a Picture/Director split. The Coens will win Director, Blood will win Picture. I think the Academy may be feeling a tinge of guilt from last year when they awarded a genre picture top prize, so they may balk at awarding another one this year. And let's face it, No Country is a genre picture. A masterful genre picture that spits in the face of genre convention, but one none the less. Under normal circumstances I'd say the odds of a Picture/Director split are too slim to go with, but I think PT Anderson is probably seen as a bit of a "punk kid" by the majority of the old guard, and the Coens have done enough great work to warrant this Oscar (also the fact that No Country is a fucking masterpiece).

So, yeah... I guess this is my bold prediction for the night.

Whatever the case, I'll be happy.

Now as long as fucking Juno doesn't win....

Though I am still predicting that No Country for Old Men will win best picture, it is very possible that There Will Be Blood can put the upset. It is between these two I say.

I completely agree. It would've lead the nominations if it wasn't "disqualified" in score. I think it takes cinematography and screenplay, foreshadowing it's eventual picture win.

Today isn't Sunday, it's Junoday!

In all honesty, I can't see that happening. At all. Not only it is waaayyyy offstream.

Fact is that it's the loewst-grossing BP nominee of the year. Did the lowest grossing BP nominee ever win?

Imagine if Michael Clayton won....it does have the largest amount of major noms...

But no editing nod. If my memory is correct, it's actually been a shorter amount of time since the last Picture winner to win with out a directing nod (Driving Miss Daisy eighteen years ago) than the last winner without an editing nod.

I am not predicting a TWBB upset, but both it and Juno do have a small chance of pulling one. The reason why it's possible is because NCFOM has won everything -- absolutely everything -- and Oscar voters probably watched it with much higher expectations as a result.

But I'm going with NCFOM in both Picture/Director. If TWBB surprises and wins BP, I'll be overjoyed. If Juno does it, on the other hand, I won't be so happy.

I'd love for a There Will Be Blood upset to happen, but No Country has won everything, so it would be incredibly foolish to bet against it. Still, I would have said the same thing about Crash (which I had a gut feeling would win) two years ago, and look at what happened there.

I will be happy as long as Michael Clayton doesn't win...

First off, I just don't see TWBB as the kind of movie that wins Picture but not Director. If anything a NCFOM/TWBB split of Picture/Director strikes me as more likely.

Second, I just don't see TWBB winning anything major outside of Actor. It's an epic, yes, but such a New-New-Hollywood kind of epic that I can't think of anything quite like it to win Picture. The only epics that usually win Picture are the most traditional of kinds, unless they make a bazzillion dollars (ROTK, Forrest Gump).

Sorryz.

Can't see it.

That is correct. The last movie to win Best Picture without a nomination for editing is Ordinary People, 27 years ago.

I finally got to see Michael Clayton.

And I have to say...

It's the second best of the Oscar nominees (behind No Country) in my opinion.

I really thought it was fantastic.

I'm kinda shocked by this...

I think people are overestimating the weirdness of TWBB. Yeah, it's strange for the average person, but as big as the fossils of the Academy are, I'm sure they've adjusted to weirdness since the 70s (which has become classical in itself), especially if it has an Old Hollywood feel as well. Plus, they have gotten looser in the last few years with being strictly "safe" (Cold Mountain not even being nominated, letting a fantasy film and an ultra-profane/very violent mob film win).

Aside from the fact that No Country has more entertainment value (chase sequences) than There Will Be Blood, there is not one thing about it that makes it less weird than TWBB. The only real difference is that one has a bit more mainstream appeal, but that hasn't affected the Academy in the past.

Regardless, it is far and away the frontrunner.

If you want to talk about gut feeling...I'm scared Juno might win.

Think about the average, run-of-the-mill Academy voter. He has voted for the "risky, award-season nonconventional, dark" movie in the past three years (M$B, Crash, The Departed). Isn't he ready for something new? The voters pick reputation over quality. Always. If you're a voter, you may think that NCFOM is a worthy movie and all, but you also might be bored with the same, old, same, old winning every year, ready to start a new trend and "shock" the public. Juno is definitely the shock choice here, and given that FOX Searchlight movies have been passed over twice in the past three years (Sideways and LMS)...it could happen.

I also have a scary feeling that Juno will win. But then again, I had the same kind of feeling that Babel would win last year.

I need Blood to win.

I need it to.

My prophetic visions of the future tell me there will be a HUGE upset in one of the 9 main cats (that includes Editing).

The academy was never going to award the art film... It was probably like 5th most likely IMO, but really 2-5 equally had no chance anyways.

Once again showing the long term effects of Crash's win. We're so damned paranoid now!