dude I'm in.

I see as real possibilites

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Song

That's a solid 5 noms, on par with previous nominees over the past several years.

Still trying to iron out my predictions, but I'm seriously considering this. It has the kind of small but passionate fanbase that can get a movie far, and unlike say Once it has a pedigree (And an actor-turned-director, somthing they loooove).

Into the Wild has captured the hearts of voters in the Screen Actors Guild. No Country has serious legs. 3:10 to Yuma FINALLY gets some love and American Gangster is still in play. Atonement, Sweeney Todd and There Will Be Blood? Not so much.

Into the Wild Leads both the SAGs and the BFCAs. This is significant because, especially in the case of the BFCAs, you are looking at a lot of people voting. It isn't twenty critics in a room, it's a ballot sent out to many members who separately agreed that they loved Sean Penn's film. The SAG nominating committee is a small percentage of the very large SAG membership. The entire membership (something like 90,000) votes for the winners.

There Will Be Blood and Into the Wild seem to be appealing to two different bodies of voters. But the more mainstream tastes are leaning towards Into the Wild. It is an interesting race between the two. The Critics Choice and the SAGs have now both gone nuts for Into the Wild, which means, to me, it's in for Best Pic. It is still possible, in the 11th hour, that the AMPAS might not go for it but come on, who are we kidding. The actors make up the largest voting block in the Academy and what they really really REALLY like often pushes through.
But it's more than that. Into the Wild is several things at once, just like No Country. It is not just one thing. It is a great leap forward for Penn as a director. It is well acted throughout. It is moving and ultimately uplifting and it is among the most beautifully filmed films of the year. When you watch the movie you feel like you are on the road with Chris McCandless. Penn's camera, as Hal Holbrook has said, gets right in there amid the trees and the wildlife. There does not even appear to be a fourth wall.

On the other hand, people do have problems with the lead character. Many have exhibited a loss of patience with McCandless for being a "dumbass" in terms of confronting the wild. But the thing is, this point couldn't be more front and center in the movie. The kid's spirit is intact. But it is his realization about life (that, frankly, many of us old timers learn after years of having life kick us in the teeth) that is what makes the movie. You can't watch Into the Wild and think, oh, gee, maybe I'll go out there in Alaska without any weapons and command the wilderness.

The plot, though, probably isn't what moves people about the film so much as the immediacy of it. Is it any wonder the actors went for it when this director in particular, like Clint Eastwood, Steven Soderbergh and the Coens, is so good with actors.

Similarly, No Country for Old Men is many things at once. It is a career-best for the Coens, and in their career that is saying a lot, the best writing of the year hands down ("You can't stop what's coming. It ain't all waitin' on you. That's just vanity.") And the acting is brilliant across the board. What a relief to see Mr. Tommy Lee Jones at last awarded for his AMAZING performance in this film. There, I exclaimed.

Even still, these SAG nominations don't move us any closer to the Best Picture lineup except to say that No Country is even stronger and is becoming too big to ignore. I don't see No Country not winning ensemble but I suppose anything is possible. Bware of Into the Wild. Am I crazy in thinking the movie could actually win Best Picture when all is said and done? Remember that the SAGs also picked Crash over Brokeback Mountain the year Crash won. The actors are the largest group in the Academy and what they like matters great deal.