Every year, something surprising happens regarding nominations or winners at the Oscars, even if some years feature a lot more surprises than others. Although it's not easy to predict a huge surprise, do you see anything happening that nobody else seems to see? A heavy contender missing out entirely? A film coming out of nowhere and scoring some big noms? A Best Picture winner that doesn't have the words "No Country for Old Men" in it?

Mine:
-American Gangster will score more noms than expected (two acting noms, Screenplay, and maybe even Director along with some techs)

-There will be a surprise acting nomination featuring an old actor (Langella, Holbrook, Dee, etc...)

-Atonement won't win any major Oscars

-Although Amy Ryan is the current frontrunner, Cate Blanchett will win Best Supporting Actress

-Best Picture and Best Director will split

Not a surprise, per se, but I'm smelling Ellen Page making her move. The movie's opened, she's won a few more critics awards, Ebert slobbered all over her, and Christie and Day-Lewis are both previous winners...and Christie's not gonna work for it. She's completely vulnerable.

When was the last time actor and actress were both previous winners?

A little research reveals it was '94, Hanks and Lange.

Atonement is bruised, beaten, bloodied. It's in serious trouble all around.

Smith getting nominated *ducks away from snobby posters*

American Gangster will grab less than 3 noms.

Even though I don't think Smith deserves a nom for I Am Legend, I certainly wouldn't complain IF he was nominated. He's a really likable guy, and another nomination under his belt would only be a good thing. However, I'm quite confident that he won't get nominated, even if he was slightly better here than he was in Pursuit of Happyness last year.

I actually think that if anywhere, the Oscars are where a film like American Gangster would thrive.

Look at films like Babel and Crash. Somewhat so-so reception, huge names, little pre-Oscars buzz, and in AG's case, huge box office/popularity. The Oscars have never gone with an absolutely perfect lineup, so I wouldn't be surprised to see two of the three hopeful actors (Denzel, Russell, and Ruby) get nominated, along with maybe the screenplay and MAYBE even Ridley Scott sneaking into Best Director.

It's the kind of movie the Academy would like, is all I'm saying.

I don't know about Crash, but Babel was an early mentioned contender for Oscars.

I'm tempted to say Atonement, There Will Be Blood, and Sweeney Todd will all be snubbed.

Dunno though.

There Will Be Blood will be the only real competition against NCFOM.

Atonement might be snubbed.

Hairspray will be nominated for BP. Maybe American Gangster if Atonement is shut out.

If not snubbed, Atonement makes a comeback (with a little help from the Globes and the BAFTAs) and wins BP (and possibly BD). There.

it could happen to one...MAYBE two...but there's no way all three of those will miss out. TWBB is in. ST and Atonement both have some work to do to ensure it.

I think "There Will Be Blood" will not be nominated for BP.

Blanchett winning would not be a surprise. Holbrook getting nominated would not be a surprise either. I mean, yeah, Ryan is the frontrunner, but not by too much and Holbrok is right now the legitimate #5 candidate.

However, American Gangster getting many noms would be surprising (and it won't happen probably, especially NOT for Screenplay!).

*sigh* Loyal...

Hm, my crazy calls?


Ellen Page will win Best Actress

Denzel Washington will get nominated for Best Actor

Either Juno OR Michael Clayton will not get a Best Picture nom

There Will Be Blood will score at least 5 nominations (okay, not THAT risky) and win at least three Oscars!

Which of the two do you think is more likely to happen?

I really think that what helps Lewis is that he lost for GONY which was probably a very close race at the end and he delivered an even more iconic performance now.

But looking at your list, obviously two wins from 4 noms would be something!

Also, OT, but I think that Hanks and Nicholson will win another one in their lifetime.

First of all, if you see it coming it will not be a surprise.

I had a second of all, but either I forgot it or it was mean.

I think that my guess for this thread is American Gangster NOT getting nominated for Picture. Maybe that's not a prediction so much as a wishful thought.

I also think people are being suddenly and unreasonably hard on Atonement and that it will do much better than some wanna think.

That's about all I got. Maybe Gosling for Lars. That'd be cool.

what i mean is, what do you see coming that others do not?

I have to ask: When's the last time a film has gotten as much critical support as No Country for Old Men? Does this date back to like Schindler's List or something?

Not a surprise, but Andy Griffith will be nominated and win.

ooh, i was expecting the answer to my question to provide proof that NCFOM was a sure-fire bet. Now, who knows?

Critic's darlings don't always make Oscar winners, ya gotta please the ticket buyer's too, not just the art weinies...

Which NCFOM has done, as shown by its box office.

Anyway, I'm not predicting it just yet, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if TWBB gets snubbed by the Oscars out of a nom. The music branch doesn't react kindly to non-classically trained composers.