I mean, I have been hesitant for a long time to join the NCFOM BP winner bandwagon, but as of now, I simply don't see a film that could upset it.

Here are the movies contending to upset it (theoretically):

There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Michael Clayton
Juno
Sweeney Todd
Into the Wild

I don't think anything else has the slightest of a chance to win over it.

It clearly has the frontrunner status by far and away right now, so let's think about other cases when BP frontrunners were upset at the Oscars:

- Crash winning over Brokeback Mountain:

Crash had Best Original Screenplay frontrunner status
Crash got a SAG Ensemble nom and two acting noms and it kept winning all the Best Ensemble awards
Crash got the precious Golden Globes Best Screenplay nom
Crash had half Hollywood starring in it

- Million Dollar Baby winning over The Aviator (kinda frontrunner):

Million Dollar Baby won Best Director at the Globes
It had clearly the better reviews and swept the critics awards

- Shakespeare in Love winning over Saving Private Ryan:

It dominated the nominations
Had Screenplay/Director/Picture noms at the Globes
Had FIVE SAG noms and won SAG Ensemble


_________________________________________________________________________

All of the winners had some signs foreshadowing their chances to upset, though they became often visible after the winning, especially in the case of Crash. Important to note is that every single of those winners had a SAG Best Ensemble nomination. Moreover, all of the winners had at least some medium-sized box-office success with the smallest making $55+ million (and being the 2nd biggest box-office hot among the BP nominees that year)

Now what do the competitiors to NCFOM have?

Atonement: No SAG Ensemble nom, not a frontrunner in a single category and might miss out on all acting noms

Sweeney Todd: No SAG Ensemble nom (or any SAG nom for that matter, same as Atonement), not a frontrunner in a single major category, no Screenplay nom at the Globes, not a single assured acting nom

There Will Be Blood: No Best Director nom at the Globes or at the BFCA, No Screenplay nom at the Globes or BFCA

Juno: No SAG Ensemble nom (despite them usually LOVING indie quirky comedies), No Director nom at the Globes or the BFCA and likely no Director nom at the Oscars

Into the Wild: Not a single major nom at the Globes, not even Screenplay, very small box-office

Michael Clayton: No SAG Ensemble nod, no Screenplay/Director nom at the Globes, no Director nom at the BFCA, rather mediocre box-office

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Not only that, but No Country for All Men is actually sweeping all the critics awards and it's not like one of the filkms above is more acclaimed than it. I think only There Will Be Blood might get close in terms of acclaim.

The only competitor above to get a SAG Ensemble nom is Into the WEild and it just has such a small box-office that I simply can't see it winning, especially after also being ignored at the Globes and not featuring an "important message" like Crash.

Juno and Atonement might fare rather well at the box-office, but no SAG Ensemble noms and the very small likelihood for a Director nom for Juno as well as the lack of passionate support for Atonement make a win doubtful


After consdering all the factors, I just think that it's really very unlikely for NCFOM to lose at this point.

Also: It stands a serious chance at pulling a Guilds sweep, something accomplished only by American Beauty in 1999, a year this year has been frequently compared to.

dhun dhun dhun?

Actually, AB is an excellent comparison, really. Both are not exactly the types that AMPAS usually go for, but they both had excellent reviews and won their fair share of critics awards (It wasn't quite as dominant as NCFOM), excellent WOM and fine box office to match, and of course that above possibility.

Loyal: It was hardly a frontrunner after Cannes, merely a very early potential contender. It didn't become a frontrunner until recently.

I agree with Jon. It got a lot of hype at Cannes, but was somewhat forgotten about two months after Cannes as people turned their eyes more to Atonement

They were, but it was still a dark, violent Coen Bros. film, a duo Cannes loves but the Academy is iffy on. It didn't even win any awards there. It WAS a contender, but I don't think anyone was using the "F" word on it just yet (No, THAT "F" word).

At the moment, it's certainly hard to think of anything that can upset No Country for Old Men, but I still have to wait until any major winners are announced. For now, No Country is still "only" a critics behemoth winning critics circles left and right.

Once the BFCA/Guilds start it up, I'll have a better idea.

In particular, the ACE and WGA winners could change things. PGA and DGA nominations are still to be announced (certain films could get even stronger), and I'm still not sure who SAG will pick as Best Ensemble. I actually think Into the Wild is in the best position to win Ensemble.

Peace,
Mike

I had been hesitant to jump on its bandwagon due to its divisive ending and supposedly the not-entirely-enthusiastic response from early academy screening. But now I could see it winning because it's in a perfect year, where its main competitions are either as dark as it but releasing too late to gather as much critical acclaims or sweeping epics/lighter affairs with no passionate supporters. And people could be feeling it's time to award Coen brothers a BP win.

Into the Wild might win Ensemble and it's still too small of a flick to win BP at the Oscars and the Globes took a dump on it as well. At least Crash got a Screenplay nom there which is a competitive category.

NCFOM is a frontrunner right now for Best Picture/Best Director/Best Supporting Actor/Best Adapted Screenplay

Juno is the only other Screenplay frontrunner right now and at the same time, its chances at a directing no are minimal and its reviews aren't as good. Missing SAG Ensemmble isn't a good thing either.

How many movies have won BP without SAG Ensemble noms?

Braveheart

Uhh...that's it. In every other year, the BP winner got a SAG Ensemble nom and about half of the SAG Ensemble winners also won Best Picture.

With Into the Wild and American Gangster being the only possible competitors to NCFOM and both having big disadvantages over NCFOM as far as the BP win goes...looks like a clear thing.

That's a really good point, actually. I hadn't thought of that.

This is what makes SAG's choices this year even weirder to me.

I don't know what to think anymore! lol. I guess No Country has it all packed up, and we can move onto 2008 now.

Peace,
Mike

Brokeback taught us nothing is certain in Oscar season, so I'll hold off for now. Especially when you consider No Country would probably be the "riskiest" BP choice they ever made (seriously, what beats it? It's equal to Silence of the Lambs except with the arty open ending).

So who's second in line? I would say Michael Clayton if it didn't randomly miss that SAG Ensemble. So I'll say Into the Wild. The Globes haven't represented the rest of the race well the last couple years, it has SAG Ensemble, it has the actor turned director, it has a passionate base.

But yeah, No Country is 100 miles ahead of everyone right now.

Or Sweeney if it turns out just no-one has seen it

No, regretably. There are more deserving movies out there, but No Country won't be stopped. I'd MUCH rather see a different Miramax movie (Gone Baby Gone, which is so much more deserving) win it all.

I have a feeling this will be the year of greatest disconnect between the Academy's picks and my own.

Hmm....the only thing I could see possibly happening is There Will Be Blood, but there's a good chance it won't even me nominated. If it is though, and maintains it's 96%+ RT and enough people see it, there could be a problem.

yes.

Juno could because it's a comedy, just like how LMS seemingly nearly did it last year.

TWBB could because it's the only other nominee that will do as well with critics as NCFOM, or at least come close to it...not to mention, it's an epic, it's a film about America, and it's being compared to "Citizen Kane". Outside it, however, I don't think much has a chance. "Atonement" is falling out of the race for a win, and it would only shoot back into it if it won the Globe. Michael Clayton has no chance, and Sweeney Todd has very little.


but of course, No Country is and will be the frontrunner until Oscar night.....that is, unless it gets pwnd at the Globes, in which case the race will be completely up in the air.

Little Miss Sunshine had a SAG Ensemble nom and actually won it.

TWBB has no SAG Ensemble nom, no GG Director/Screenplay noms and no BFCA Director/Screenplay noms.

So...yeah.

There Will Be Blood is also 10x more of an Academy-loving film than LMS...not to mention it has won tons of awards, and its very clear DDL-frontrunner-for-Best-Actor status will definitely help its push for a BP nom. Once it's in, things could definitely change.

Noone cares about the Golden Jokes anymore...

Sure, easily actually.

NCFOM is not a grand scale event film or a film with a very significant message of our society....at least not one that wants to beat us over the head repeatedly like Crash.

I'd have so much more respect for the Academy if Country or Blood win the oscar, but though one of them should probably take home the trophy I do feel theres a 50% chance neither of them walk out with it.

Six wins wouldn't be shocking at this point.

well, they definitely have an impact on the Academy in some ways, if nothing else.

From what I've read about it, the only thing Academy-friendly about it is a powerhouse lead and period setting. Otherwise, it's pretty damn dark, and unlike NCFOM it's not gonna make a lot of money at the box office. Even with a BP nom it'll probably be lucky to make $40 million.

And yeah, it's in an excellent position for six wins at this point. At the very least it's the far and away frontrunner for S. Actor, Screenplay and Editing, with Cinematography (Deakins love) and Director also looking strong.

i agree with that for the most part. We should remember that although box office required for a BP winner isn't the same as it used to be, this won't have more than $60-$70m by the Oscars, a pretty low figure [films like "Juno" and "Sweeney Todd" will likely be higher] compared to past BP winners outside of "Crash".

and remember, at this point in time, "Crash" really had zero buzz. I was surprised it picked up the Globe nomination. There's SO much that can happen between now and the end of February that calling BP a lock for any film is taking a bit too large of a step.

Exactly... No Country will be their riskiest choice (from what I've heard) since Silence. Hmmmm....


I still think Atonement stands a great chance of winning if nominated (which I think it will). It's the closest movie to Braveheart in tone and all. It can easely pick up a few techs along the way, along with the GG and the BAFTA.


But yes, you can easely argue that No Country has everything to win at this moment, if we ignore the fact that it doesn't seem like the Academy's fave type of film.

I could even see NCFOM win Sound with a bit of luck.

Of course critics aren't the end-all for Oscars. Just ask Sideways. The thing is, NCFOM's frontrunner status has been less a surge from itself but more a flailing of other contenders elsewhere. Granted, all we have to work with here is SAG, but looking at the past history of SAG, there aren't a lot of contenders that could pop up now. Crash made its move here, and the only film to make any move like that is Into the Wild, a film with a passionate fanbase, but also a tiny film, far tinier than Crash.

For the sake of comparison, Silence of the Lambs was in a similar "winner by default" case, where you had the tech-heavy film that nobody was really crazy over (Bugsy), a small, dark film with a pedigree, plenty of passion but too much controversy (JFK), and two crowd-pleasers that missed Director noms (Prince of Tides and Beauty and the Beast). Braveheart had a similar "by default" win, with the two most Academy-friendly contenders (Apollo 13 and Sense & Sensibility) missing out on a Director nom, and the other two films being a small foreign Rom Com and a Family film starring a pig. The final results probably won't be as wacky as those line-ups, but I think all of the contenders will end up having similar setbacks, making NCFOM a "by default" winner.

That's at least one way of looking at it, I guess.

What do you think can beat it?

Oh, and as awesome/deserving as it would be, NCFOM isn't winning Sound. It's finally gonna be O'Connell's year with Transformers.