Well, it seems to me like the following line-up is pretty surely in:

Javier Bardem
Casey Affleck
Tom Wilkinson
Philip Seymour Hoffman


But who'll get in for the 5th remaining spot?

I'd say the following are duking it out:

Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
John Travolta (Hairspray)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Russell Crowe (American Gangster)

None of them, except for Halbrook and Travolta ave received any mentions so far, so I think it'll be between the two. Who do you think will it be?

My gut feeling says: Travolta. They've gotta somehow reward Hairspray, one of the best-reviewed films of the year, more well-liked by critics than even Chicago or Dreamgirls.

honestly, even though they're likely, Wilkinson and Hoffman are definitely not LOCKS yet. Michael Clayton could get ignored by the Academy, and CWW hasn't even come out yet.

But I do predict both to get in at the moment.


What I don't understand is why PAUL DANO has gotten like no buzz so far. He looks so fantastic in TWBB. Maybe DDL's performance drowns him out?

I actually think the last spot might...might go to...Travolta...

I agree that beyond Bardem and Affleck, no one's a lock yet, but they are just very likely.

Last year, the only supporting actors who were nominated in both GG and BFCA:

Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland as George Reeves
Jack Nicholson – The Departed as Francis "Frank" Costello

They both missed out on Oscar noms.

Although in prior years it's been a very accurate predictor.

Casey Affleck in particular is not a lock (I think he will be snubbed) if they follow last year's Affleck pattern.

BUT Affleck won NBR.

In all the recent years, the winner of National Board of Review's Best Sup. Actor went on to get an Oscar nom.

Yeah it'll be interesting. I say Holbrook for now, but Into the Wild could get totally shut out by the academy.

DANO!!!

Hairspray's got only a 76 on Metacritic. You could make a better argument for Paul Rudd with this logic. I don't see Travolta in the discussion at all...

I'm saying von Sydow

I don't think Travolta's at all worthy, but a big name actor playing a woman is perfect Academy bait. I think he gives maybe the weakest performance in the movie, but it's gotten tons of support, and could sneak into the last slot for that.

Theodore

jack black

Travolta. It's a pick that would really piss me off, so it makes perfect sense.

But it's a musical which is a rather easy sell. Dreamgirls and Chicago managed multiple acting noms, Hairspray could make it as well considering its not really worse reviewed than they were and Chicago aside, its the most successful musical in recent memory.

Except Travolta has like, actually gotten a mention somewhere, something Cohen and Rickman have yet to do.

Still, I think Travolta's mention is closer to Ferrell's nom for The Producers two years ago than a decent indication of a nom, unless SAG follows. Still, Holbrook seems like a good bet for now, unless Diving Bell takes off, in which case watch out for von Sydow.

Well, Holbrook is in the poll as well, Loyal

And I'm really pretty sure about that four.