Raffiki was right about more specific threads. We are more than half into the year, so it's time to start more specific discussions, while general discussion can still remain in the main thread.

So, any contenders already released? Discuss those and the upcoming possibilities.

Personally, I don't think there are any real contenders released at this point. All the Ratatouille talk is simply wishful thinking, especially since the Oscars have a separate animation category. Hairspray is the only one with a slim chance, but in Hairspray's thread it has already been stated that due to the release date and the director the chances are slim, unless the competition is really lacking this year.

This is what my current, incredibly early predictions are for the Best Picture nominees:

The Golden Age
American Gangster
Reservation Road
The Kite Runner
Charlie Wilson's War

Dark horses: There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd

I think that one of either Charlie Wilson's War, Rendition or Lions for Lambs will make it. I don't see all three missing, but also somehow don't see more than one of them getting in. The Golden Age would be the surest bet, if this had not been a sequel. Reservation Road just has too much going for it with the director, the cast and the plot and American Gangster should be this year's The Departed.

Boy I hope Reservation Road doesn't get a nomination. Mark Ruffalo runs over Joaquin Phoenix's son, and shortly afterwards is hired to be Phoenix's lawyer tracking himself down? Puh-leez.

I'm waiting on any sort of footage from Charlie Wilson's War before putting my eggs in its basket, but it certainly seems promising at the moment, at least more so than say, Dreamgirls last year.

And if Once is still in theaters by the end of the year I think it has an excellent shot at getting major nods, including Picture. And I'm not kidding.

Rat.
A.
Touille.

A.
Tone.
Ment.

I can see American Gangster getting a Nom, not a win though no matter how good it is.

*major contender
-minor contender
~off chance

Contenders:
*Into the Wild
*Gone Baby Gone
*Rendition
*Reservation Road
*In the Valley of Elah
*American Gangster
*The Kite Runner
*Lions for Lambs
*Atonement
*Charlie Wilson's War
-There Will Be Blood
-Youth Without Youth
-Sweeney Todd
-No Country for Old Men
-Margot at the Wedding
-The Mist
-Across the Universe
-Eastern Promises
-Lust, Caution
-Grace is Gone
-Elizabeth: The Golden Age
-Waitress
-Once
-Rescue Dawn
~Away From Her
~Knocked Up
~A Mighty Heart
~Talk to Me
~Goya's Ghosts
~Becoming Jane
~Rocket Science
~Death at a Funeral
~3:10 to Yuma
~Zodiac
~The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Becoming Jane and Death At A Funeral have zero chance.

Charlie Wilson's War is probably my most anticipated...but I'm going to hold off on predictions for it until I see a trailer.

Neither has Jesse James. Why do people still call it a contender? It's utter crap.

This list will be weeded out as the time approaches, however, Jane and Funeral are off-chances, 1%, and Jesse James, until it releases, is still technically in the running. Also, an off-chance.

Okay, so here a little more detailed breakdown of my thoughts.


American Gangster:

The simple stats speak for themselves:

Ridley Scott (3 nominations, 0 wins)
Denzel Washington (5 nominations, 2 wins)
Russell Crowe (3 nominations, 1 win)
Steven Zaillian (3 nominations, 1 win)
Editor: Pietro Scalia (4 nominations, 2 wins)
Producer: Brian Grazer (3 nominations, 1 win)

Based on a true story, this currently stands as one of the frontrunners at main nominations, though its chances of winning are extremly slim simply based on the fact that the similarly-themed The Departed won last year. With such an overdue director, though and the great cast, it seems to have its way paved for a nom. Though if it's just "good" and not excellent, it might suffer Walk the Line's fate and miss out on the major noms (WTL did, partly because of Ray's nomination a year earlier, IMO). One major advantage it'll have over other potential BP nominees this year is that it'll likely be among the highest-grossing ones. With its marketing and the star pedigree it's guaranteed a solid $80+ million b/o take. So right now I see noms for Picture/Director/Actor/Screenplay and maybe 2-3 tech noms.


The Golden Age:

Let's face it: The only thing standing in this film's way, really the only single thing is the fact that it's a sequel to an already BP-nominated film. I mean that didn't stop The Godfather or LOTR, but it's not quite comparable. Still, I think this one won't miss out. Cate Blanchett was sorely snubbed for a win for the first film and judging by the trailer, she's at least as good as in that one. Shekhar Kapur was not nominated for the first film, I expect the Academy to give him a nod this time around. The movie is simply a prime bait for an Oscar. The cast is superb with Clive Owen, Samantha Morton and Geoffrey Rush. With it being a tech monster, we can expect big support once again and it might very well end up being the most-nominated film of the year. The original scored 7 nominations and that without a Screenplay or a Directing nom. The sequel might grab up to ten nods, IMO.


Reservation Road:

The film might be dealing with themes that other films have dealt with in the past, but I think that it is more high-profile than, say, 21 Grams or In the Bedroom (which was nominated for several Oscars). Mira Sorvino and Jeniffer Connelly are both Oscar-winning actresses and Phoenix is overdue anyway with two noms and two excellent performances under his belt. The role of the grieving father seeking revenge and justice is juicy, so we can at least expect him as a contender at this point. Terry George has received a whole lot of acclaim with Hotel Rwanda. In the end, it'll depend on whether the film can stand out of the mould of similar films or not. I currently predict it to snatch a BP nom, but this is certainly not something I would bet on. One of the riskier contenders, IMO.


There Will Be Blood:

This is, without a doubt, Paul Thomas Anderson's biggest and most epic film to date. While Punch-Drunk Love didn't earn him much love with the Academy, it was still well-reviewed and his previous two films, Magnolia and Boogie Nights were nominated three times each and both of them earned Anderson a screenwriting nod. This film definitely seems to be his most ambitious project so far and is, IMO, a dark horse in the race. With a limited release on December 26th, it might be a little too late in the race, but if it scores really brilliant reviews á la Million Dollar Baby, it will be in. Daniel Day-Lewis seems to be close to a lock for a Best Actor nom and maybe even a win after his unexpected loss for GONY.


The Kite Runner

There are things going for it, definitely with Marc Foster at the helm and this being an adpattation of a very successful and acclaimed novel, but the screenwriter has not been really aknowledged yet (though that didn't hurt The Departed) and the lack of any known cast might hurt it a bit too. I definitely need to wait and see how this develops, but the storyline of the novel (and the film) is the one that simply screams for award recognition.


Rendition:

Gavin Hood got a lot of accolades for Tsotsi and now directs this "important" film with an all-star cast. We've got three former winns here (Witherspoon, Arkin, Streep) and one nominee (Gyllenhaal), as well as a touchy subject, but a fairly inexperienced screenwriter who might not be able to handle the subject as well as it could be done. It has a lot going for it and should be fairly successful too, maybe along the lines of Syriana, just a bit bigger, but I think that this, Lions for Lambs and Charlie Wilson's War bear a certain resemblance and that only one of the three will make it into the BP race. I am not putting my money on this one.


Lions for Lambs:

This one is more high-profile than Rendition. Robert Redford (4 noms, 1 win), Tom Cruise (3 noms, 0 wins) and Meryl Streep (14 noms, 2 wins)...oh and it has Michael Peña which is has become an indicator to whether or not youe film will be nominated for BP as he appeared in Babel, Crash and Million Dollar Baby The trailer, though, seem rather average, so I'm just not feeling it right now. Maybe another noms for Streep and Cruise (especially if Streep delivers in Rendition as well), but BP...maybe, but I still put my money in the next film I'll mention...


Charlie Wilson's War:

Granted, we have to see some footage, but it'll arrive in due time (remember how late the trailer for Munich appeared). The pedigree is unbelievably great:

Mike Nichols (5 noms, 1 win)
Tom Hanks (5 noms, 2 wins)
Julia Roberts (3 noms, 1 wins)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (1 noms, 1 win)
Amy Adams (1 nom, 0 wins)
Screenwriter: Alan Sokrin (4-time Emmy Winner)
Cinematographer: Stephen Goldblatt (2 noms, 0 wins)
Editor: John Bloom (3 noms, 1 win)
Costume Design: Albert Wolsky (5 noms, 2 wins)

Combined with the release date, the "importance" of the topic and the mere fact of Nichols + Hanks + Roberts will give it b/o glory and likely awards attention unless it's completely mediocre.


Sweeney Todd:

A HUGE dark horse here. Tim Burton is INCREDIBLY overdue, Depp is overdue as well. Musical is acclaimed, good box-office is almost assured thanks to the Burton/Depp combo. It'll definitely score tech noms, at least 3-4 of them and Depp is very possible for a nom too. Maybe Burton...the film will need to be a BIG success and/or very critically-acclaimed to get in, but it's possible.


The Bucket List:

A funny plot, a great cast with Freeman and Nicholson on board, but director Rob Reiner hasn't produced anything decent in a long time. It MIGHT become this year's Sideways/Lost in Translation/Little Miss Sunshine, but for that, I think, it is released too late into the year.

Obviously there are more that I didn't cover like Atonement, Once and Margot at the Wedding...but I might get back to them later.

To be honest, I thing those discussions are ridiculous at this point. I keep my judgment to the movies I have seen or a reliable source has seen. So so far Atonement and maybe Once are the only real contenders for me. The Dreamgirls, Good Shepherd, Good German debacle of last year should be a lesson for everyone

But it would be boring without discussions and frankly some Oscar nominees simply can be predicted beforehand due to pedigree (like The Aviator and Munich), no matter what...

Lecter, great analysis. One thing though...Amy Adams didn't win (although I loved Rachel's performance as well. If only they had tied...)

Ah, sorry, I mistyped : ) Anf thanks!

Good job Lec

I wrote a paragraph or two last week, but right now I think Ridley Scott is the overwhelming favorite in the director race. Really, he's in a Scorsese stage where there aren't many who can beat him. Nichols, Redford, Burton, Coen Bros., Wright... I don't have faith in any of those guys. Maybe if the first two hadn't been rewarded, but of course, they have. Doesn't match up to an overdue Ridley Scott, not near.

I think his weight against the others makes AG the momentary frontrunner, but there's still the entire race to go.

Right now I think

American Gangster
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
The Golden Age
A biopic that wins Best Actor or Actress

I really lost my faith in Lions for Lambs after that trailer. IMO, it looks like a Syriana. I think Charlie Wilson's War has more of an edge on it at this point because Nichols is more consistent and more reliable than Redford, though I'm not betting on either being the big dogs the studios wanted them to be.

so far:

1. Atonement
2. Reservation Road
3. No Country for Old Men
4. The Golden Age
5. Gone Baby Gone

6. Michael Clayton
7. Charlie Wilson's War (need to see a trailer)
8. In the Valley of Elah
9. American Gangster
10. Lions for Lambs

11. In the Valley of Elah
12. Eastern Promises
13. Sweeney Todd (Although with the PG-13 rating, i'm not so sure)
14. Lust, Caution (the NC-17 rating REALLY hurts its chances)
15. Knocked Up

I'm not so sure Gone Baby Gone can make it to the top 5.

It's one of my most anticipated and the trailer was very good but really, I don't know how much weight I can put on a film directed by Ben Affleck. And I don't mean that offensively. I'm among the few who actually LIKE Ben Affleck. I just think the movie has to be really something to crack in there... like Mystic River status.

I hope it's that good though. And I hope that it gets in if it is. But at this point, we don't have much to go on.

I also don't think Michael Clayton has much going for it in the Picture race. It's basically Clooney's show and he may be in for a Best Actor nod but the trailer didn't make it stand out more than the other politicl thrillers we have this year.

I'm just really really hoping Atonement delivers the goods. It's been some time since a great English period piece won.

Yeah I don't buy Gone Baby Gone getting in, since it's supposedly a whole world of different than that trailer that we've seen.

Hmm, I didn't know about The Bucket List before...

Rob Reiner in crap land is probably a lot to overcome. But... well, ok, it'll be tough. Butttt it's Nicholson and Freeman and its has Oscar bait written all over it, from the plot to the release date. Anything with those actors and that potential can't be discarded.

The thing about RR is, he's been making crap for over a decade, but he's only made what... 3 movies in that timeframe? Rumor Has It, Alex and Emma, Story of Us. Those were all fluff romcom pieces and nothing more, there wasn't much ambition in there. Going back a bit more there was also Ghosts of Mississipi... a movie I'd never heard of but doesn't seem to have a horrible reputation, and North, a crap kids film. He made The American President at the same time as those two though, which was good. Other than Ghosts maybe, none of those had half the potential of Bucket List. In fact, if Reiner's large and probably devastating shadow wasn't pulling it down, I'd be calling this my most anticipated Oscar film.

I guess I still hold out hope that he'll make another good movie, I mean anyone with Princess Bride/Spinal Tap/When Harry Met Sally/Stand by Me/Misery/A Few Good Men on their resume has to have some talent left in there somewhere. That's one hell of an early career lineup.