Raffiki was right about more specific threads. We are more than half into the year, so it's time to start more specific discussions, while general discussion can still remain in the main thread.

So, any contenders already released? Discuss those and the upcoming possibilities.

It would never happen, but Sienna Miller deserves a nod for interview.

Actress is definitely the busiest category at the moment. Already we have two very strong contenders in Christie for Away from Her and Cotillard for La Vie en Rose, and two minor "Maybe" contenders in Jolie for A Mighty Heart and Russell for Waitress.

At the moment I think Keira Knightly (Atonement) and Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire) will join Christie and Cotillard, though I'm still unsure about the fifth nominee. Blanchett would seem like a good bet, but everyone is predicting Blanchett/Christie/Cotillard/Knightly already, which worries me, and Blanchett strikes me as the weakest of the four. Then again, this category was also set pretty early last year, so who knows.

Blanchett looks INCREDIBLE in the trailer...but the fact that she's played the role before could kill her.

Catherine Keener for An American Crime?

Knightley for Atonement?

Hmmm... something like this:


Julie Christie
Nicole Kidman
Angelina Jolie
Keira Knightley
Halle Berry

Julie Christie's acting didn't adequately portray her character's debilitation by alzheimers - - she was too busy trying to look glamorous (which, of course, she is very good at!)...

I doubt Christie...film released too early, too small...I think Keri Russell is a bigger contender right now.

Keira Knightley- Atonement
Anne Hathaway- Becoming Jane
Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart
Keri Russell- Waitress
Marion Cotillard- La Vie en Rose

Julie Christie will be totally revived by critic awards and, being a veteran actress, is a lock. Russell is a contender, but has a lot more obstacles. I think that's it from so far.

Agreed - Jolie and Cotillard are very unlikely imo to be nominated. It doesn't help Jolie in particular that her film was kinda DOA at the box office.

I've got a very strong feeling that Blanchett will get a nomination, and certainly could theoretically win. Judging from Levy's thoughts Knightley is very unlikely to get nominated.

Julie Christie is incredible in Away from Her. Unless some other actress has an incredible performance later on in the year, she will win critic's award left and right. With the DVD coming out soon she is the one lock at this point.

Angelina Jolie...I can't see happening.

If the trailer is any indication of the performances in Atonement, Kiera Knightley will receive her second nomination (Judging's from the plot she seems to be playing a CO-LEAD character, not supporting.)

Thing's We Lost in the Fire does not look all that great, in spite of all the talent attahced to it. So as of now I don't think Halle Berry will get a nomination.

Russell might stand a chance depending on the DVD release for Waitress. She is excellent in the film, but not quite Oscar-worthy IMO.

Kidman could get nominated depending on competition

Blanchett will probably overcome her obstacles and up with another nomination especially if the trailer is any indication of her performance.

Reservation Road looks like a combination of In the Bedroom/21 Grams...I'm not sure that's good for Connelly even though both Grams and Bedroom received Best Actress Oscar nominations.

And I'm tired so my predictions as of now...

1. Julie Christie- Away from Her
2. Kiera Knightley- Atonement
3. Cate Blanchett- The Golden Age
4. Helena Bonham Carter- Sweeney Todd
5. Wei Tang- Lust, Caution

6. Marion Cotillard- La Vie en Rose
7. Laura Linney- The Savages
8. Jennifer Connelly- Reservation Road
9. Reese Witherspoon- Rendition
10. Nicole Kidman or Halle Berry

If Helena Bonham Carter goes supporting then Christie/Knightley/Blanchett/Linney/Tang

It'll be difficult for an unknown young foreign actress to break into the lead race, even though her name is easier to pronounce than Zhang Ziyi. Joan Chen is likely the only acting possibility from Lust, Caution if she has a good supporting role, but I wouldn't count on it.

Here are my predictions at the moment:

Cate Blanchett, The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en rose
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages

it does happen every once in a while (catalina sandino moreno) so more than anything its a gut feeling since it's ang lee and because of the role she plays.

I've lost all faith in Halle Berry. Otherwise though, I agree with most here

Julie Christie, Away From Here
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Cate Blanchett, The Golden Age
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd

alternate: Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart

I also think it's time for a HBC nomination.

There has to be more movies and contenders than this though. I really need to dig into it... I'm going to be really upset if they award another biopic actress this year. I've had enough. Of course that's probably what's going to happen.

Right now I actually think Christie can win.

A win? Frontrunner? Really?

I guess I just wasn't that taken aback by her performance. I would have thought her chances were lackluster but I dunno, Rod has made some great early calls before
Hasn't she won before?

I really don't think Angelina Jolie is in this race. A Mighty Heart came and went and most people didn't even know about it. Hell, even I missed seeing it and I'm in indie central.

I'm starting to really look forward to Sweeney Todd so I'm hoping Carter gives a great performance and can get a nomination.

If Knightley goes lead, I'm pretty sure she'll get it.

I honestly think Russel can get in the mix if the category is as weak as I'm seeing it.

I'm not very good at early predictions but oh well...

Helena Bonham Carter
Keira Knightley
Cate Blanchett
Kerri Russel/Julie Christie

My goodness that's an odd mix. I know there's no way Russel AND Christie will get nominated. I'm tempted, very tempted to say Nicole Kidman... oh what the hell. I'll say Nicole Kidman for the last spot.

41 years ago.

For Darling... come on, Raffi!

Is there any precedence for Julie Christie's case? I.e. a relatively small (box-office-wise) film released in the first half of the year to still snatch an acting nom?

Because it still looks unlikely to me...

Maria Full of Grace made it in on $6.5 million from the summer, and that was a foreign language indie with a newcomer. Then there's Half Nelson, where Gosling got a nom for a summer indie flick that made only $2.7 million. Both weren't technically in the first half of the year, but they were still pretty early on. Eternal Sunshine also had pretty ho-hum box office (Considering the star, anyway), but Oscar vet Winslet still got in thanks to great reviews.

Also, Christie got her last nom for Afterglow, a film that made only $2.5 million with unimpressive reviews (68 on RT and Metacritic). The reviews for Away from Her, OTOH, are almost universally good. Finally, a veteran actress with a previous win playing a woman with Alzheimer's? I can't see how they'll resist.

Well, Eternal Sunshine is out of discussion because $30+ million isn't the same as less than $5 million.

And I think there's a difference between a mid-August/mid-July release and an early May release. Maria Full of Grace was a foreign flick and its widest release was 127 theatres (Away from Her was in 275), that's pretty impressive for it. The only comparable one with that is rather Half-Nelson, but that was released three months later into the year...

I'm not aying it's impossible, but I think that Waitress' Keri Russell has a better chance with the bigger film released around the same time.

Gah. I had typed a huge post and lost all of it.

Recap:

You don't really have to worry about being forgotten when you're Julie Christie.

Nicole Kidman's roles in The Golden Compass and Margot at the Wedding will put her on the right track for nomination #3 but is unlikely they will overcome recently underwhelming films to get her that nomination just yet. Not this year.

I can't remember the last time I saw a revenge flick that was better than average, which is why I had reservations about Jodie Foster even with Neil Jordan directing. But, apparently that is just the case with The Brave One so I'm on the Foster bandwagon.

New rankings:
1. Julie Christie
2. Kiera Knightley
3. Jodie Foster
4. Cate Blanchett
5. Wei Tang

-Helena Bonham Carter- (I'm guessing it'll probably be supporting but if not I'd put her here)
6. Marion Cotillard
7. Laura Linney
8. Reese Witherspoon
9. Naomi Watts (Eastern Promises)
10. Angelina Jolie

Next year we could have Meryl Streep (Doubt) Nicole Kidman (Australia) and Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road.) I'm anticipating that line up already!!

Away From Her didn't make as big an indie splash as it could have, but I agree that at this point, Christie's a safe bet for a nomination. It's almost September, and it's unlikely that we haven't seen any of the nominees thus far. I'd love to see some love for Keri Russell, but Christie's seems to be the more lauded of the two.

Cate Blanchett's position is interesting this year. When was the last time an actress was nominated for a sequel?