As stated elsewhere...

Scorsese, Eastwood, Payne need not be worried.

I think Forster is going to make the shortlist. It's incredibly possible for Finding Neverland to get Picture and/or Director at the Oscars.

It's an important day for Taylor Hackford, Terry George and Michael Gondry... their pictures arguably have the biggest chance of scoring a Picture nom outside the locked 3 and Finding Neverland. If one of them ends up on the list here it could really kick the others out of the race perminently.

But I think the 5th nominee will be someone like Mike Nichols, who's picture isn't really doing what it could but is still respected and thought of that Closer is at least decent, they could go with Mel Gibson, who took the ultimate director/producers gamble this year and did something which directors dream about. Michael Moore did the same as Gibson, on a lesser scale. Then there is Zimou who could squeek in like so many Picture-nominationless foreign directors of the last few years (or maybe we really aren't giving House of Flying Daggers its due in the Picture category?). It's also completely possible for Michael Mann to bring Collateral back to life at this late date. It's video release has ONLY helped its visablity.

One of the most fascinating things that could happen would be for Brad Bird to get a nomination... then Incredibles actually, actually might be a competator.

Thoughts?

Well, as you have said, three are locks.

As for the other two I'd say Mike Nichols (considering how respected his work in general is) and Michael Mann.

arent the nominations out today?
when are they announced?

Some time later today, not sure when.

10:00am, EST. Or in 3 minutes.

Wow! Is it true what I just read?

Eastwood
Gibson
Mann
Tarantino
Scorsese

That would be a shocker!!

Uhhh...that'd be very far-fetched

Some jerk in the Oscar watch forum made a bad joke :evil: It seems they're still not announced....grrr

Hehe

Payne won't be snubbed, that's for sure.

Official:

Eastwood
Hackford
Payne
Scorsese
Forster

So no surprises...

*waits for andaroo to come in and salivate*

Well, I admit, that boosts Ray's chances immensly. In the last two year's the DGA noms matched the Best Picture noms at the Oscars 5:5. As for the overall history, it's about 50/50, but in 90% of cases at least 4 match. That makes Finding Neverland pretty much a lock now.

That's not correct. They had Gary Ross last year, but the Oscar nod went to Fernando Mereilles
2002 they had Jackson, but the Academy went with Almodovar
2001 they were only 3 of five...

I think that Hackford and Payne are still no shoe-in, but their chance have risen of course

I didn't mean Best Director

I meant BEST PICTURE.

okie...

I'm talking Picture here.

Ray's chances keep increasing.

So, Aviator, Baby, Sideways--locks for Best Picture. Finding Neverland--near lock. That pretty much means, unless Neverland pulls something funny here, that ES, Ray and Rwanda will fight like hell for the fifth slot, which makes the fifth slot the point of interest now.

I give Rwanda the slight edge now. I'm worried about Sunshine, very worried. Critics love it, but it is not getting any love from the guilds. If there is any justice in the world, a dodgy preposition, it would be nominated.

OK, now I have to admit these 5 corresponding films look pretty good for Best Picture.

Levy, Payne is a lock for BD nom. Forster and Hackford are more iffy.

This is Marty's 6th DGA nom, and he had never won. This should be his year, then with the win at PGA and DGA, The Aviator will carry the momentum all the way through Oscar. I can't see any other scenario right now.

I think that the trend will continue and Scorcese won't win DGA (he will win the Oscar, though). I think the DGA will go to either Eastwood or Payne, but I'm giving Payne the edge.

4 of the DGA noms match 4 of the PGA noms. Only one changed, and that's George for Ray over The Incredibles in the PGA (obviously that was going to happen).

So, the guilds have really favoured the 4 films that have overall been the contendors over the whole awards season: Million Dollar Baby, Finding Neverland, Sideways and The Aviator. I think they will all 4 be nominated.

Since they threw Incredibles in as the 5th picture nom, I really don't know who to expect for the 5th slot now. Ray has definately boosted up now because of the DGA nod, but I'm still not convinced, because Ray is definately one of those films that are director praised rather than actually awarded as a film. I'm more convinced that Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sunshine, or another film will be the 5th slot at the Oscars. Could be wrong.

Overall, I'm disappointed with the DGA's and PGA's - I usually love them for choosing surprises and mixing things up. This time they have horribly boring choices and basically just solidified 4 films that were always the top 4 films for the Oscars. Bleh. Boring, boring, boring...

PEACE, Mike

I agree. It is getting too predictable, really.

Right now, I just hope for surprises in the SAG!

Even I didn't expect Ray to get DGA.


Yeah, I think Forster or Hackford (most likely the later's) position on the Best Director chart is somewhat weak to outside pressure, but I think we pretty much have our 5 Best Picture nominees now.

Everything else is fighting for recognition from guilds that aren't getting support. Ray may not have PGA, but it has techs that Neverland doesn't have. They both look like a really solid 4 and 5. Unless we can get some guild action to support the notion that Eternal Sunshine (which should get a screenplay nom) or Rwanda (which *might* get an actor nom?), there's no reason to think that Best Picture nominees won't be from the five directors here.

We agree? That's the second time in about one week! Who are you and what did you do with the REAL Dr. Lecter? :wink:

PEACE, Mike

There is also no reason to consider it a lock either

As I said in 50% of cases the DGA points out all 5 Oscar noms. However, there are another 50% of cases left.

However, if there is one thing for certain, then that the five Best Picture noms won't have all of their directors nominated. I went back to 1985 and in no year did I find such a case in which all five BP noms had their directors nominated too. I was too lazy to go further back, to be frank.

BTW, don't blame AMPAS for picking "boring" films (and considering Million Dollar Baby wasn't a competitor 2 months ago, the race has only been predictable in a short time span), blame the film industry for producing nothing worth awarding this year... which is the biggest problem of all.

Why are people flocking to Sideways and the like? Because everything else has let them down.

Ray is an easy choice, it may be the Seabiscuit/Chocolat/etc. choice but everything that this film is and stands for jives with the Academy. I could say the same with Finding Neverland.

Rwanda has important subject matter and Eternal Sunshine is brilliant, but neither of these two films are traditionally what AMPAS or the American public go after.

I ate him

I wish this were the list, because the real one is a total yawner. It's not like there hasn't been any more daring films of high quality released in 2004. I mean, both Kill Bill Volume 2 and Collateral were both very well received with critics and the public and yet all hope of either of them playing a large role in this years oscars is all but gone. And what do we have in their place? Lightweight oscar bait like Ray and Finding Neverland. It's just too fucking depressing . I really hope something like House of Flying Daggers can come out of left field and snatch a nomination for picture or director, but I'm not holding my breath.