98% final predictions (The 96% for Actor brings it down ( ):

Performance by an actor in a leading role
1. Peter O’Toole in “Venus” (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Council)
2. Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland” (Fox Searchlight)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
4. Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson” (THINKFilm)
5. Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

Yes, that's right, I'm predicting O'Toole. While the film hasn't been the most loved, I think the voters will feel it's time to finally give him the Oscar. They snapped Paul Newman's losing streak with the not-very-well-remembered The Color of Money, and they finally took away Geraldine Page's losing record for the very-well-forgotten the The Trip to Bountiful. In both cases they were surprising, beating a far more awarded perfs (Bob Hoskins in Mona Lisa and Whoopi in The Color Purple, respectively), and I think history will repeat itself come Sunday. It's a risk I feel confident in taking.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
1. Helen Mirren in “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
2. Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox)
3. Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
4. Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (New Line)
5. Penélope Cruz in “Volver” (Sony Pictures Classics)

There's Helen Mirren, then there's everyone else. Are YOU going to bet against her?

My rankings:

Actor:
1. Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland” (Fox Searchlight)
2. Peter O’Toole in “Venus” (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Council)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
4. Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson” (THINKFilm)
5. Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
1. Helen Mirren in “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
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2. Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox) (If anyone upsets, it'll be the American in a group of foreigners)
3. Penélope Cruz in “Volver” (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (New Line)
5. Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)

I don't care how due he is, Peter O'Toole, after Smith, is least likely to win this award. The film might as well be the lowest grossing film ever to be nominated for a major category. He has lost just about all the buzz he had and nobody cares anymore. It doesn't help that he technically does have an Oscar.

I know they're planning on expanding the film but honestly, it's just way too late.

I actually have it as
1. Whitaker
2. Gosling
3. O'Toole
4. Leo
5. Smith

1. Whitaker
*
*
*
2. O'Toole
*
3. Nelson
4. DiCaprio
*
*
*
*
*
*
5. Smith

Whitaker ought to win BA.

Mirren as well.

Actress is very strong this year, in my opinion. I loved each performance tremendously (sans Notes - haven't seen) and wouldn't mind any of the actresses taking home the award. Ideally, Winslet would win. Topping Mirren is difficult, though - she was just as superb.

Whitaker ought not to win BS. Maybe BSA but not BA.

I don't know why everyone has Leonardo Dicaprio lower than #2. He's had a phenomenal year and is amassing an impressive Oscar resume.

Mirren, Meryl, and Winslet all deserve to WIN. What a shame only one of them can.

DiCaprio would, ideally, win for Departed. That isn't happening, obviously.

Whitaker has long since deserved an Oscar. Especially since he was snubbed for his supporting work in 1992

Kate Winslet's 5th nod, and she's 31. She doesn't have to have a strong role next time, they will be alot more likely to give her the Oscar next time, with a 6th nod. She's made far too many good films, so early in her career, that she will win an Oscar in her next two tries (not this time though). Mirren just has it this year, but in a wildcard year next time, and with what could be a 6th or 7th nod, Winslet would get it. 3/4 of her nods have been for smaller films that alot of people haven't seen, and Titanic was just a whole other ball game, where the whole movie was the event, rather than her performance. She'll get a role sooner or later, which will just push her to the win.

Mirren is a lock, and Whitaker is very close, but I think a last minute push for Gosling could pull a Brody like upset...

Best Supporting Actor is always the most interesting category. I really hate it when frontrunners are figured out from thsi early on. Because if they lose, it'll be an outrage. And if they do, it'll be boring.

I was reading this article and they talk about DiCaprio being put up for supporting for Departed, not lead.

My question to you all is, if DiCaprio was supporting in The Departed, then who was the lead? Damon and Nicholson both seemed supporting as well.

Best Actress is as locked as it could be.
In Best Actor, there could be room for a surprise but I don't see it yet.
Let's consider the possibilities:
1. Peter O'Toole wins: The sentimental factor, technically hasn't won before and the guy is legendary.
But....he has got a lifetime achievement so they could think that's enough. Plus it's a small film.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio wins: People feel he is due, he is very popular and has had two award worthy performances this year. It's possible that the supporters of both his performances vote for him for this performance thus winning the Oscar.
But...he is young and he will surely be nominated again.
3. Ryan Gosling wins: Maybe he'll do an Adrien Brody.
But...little boxoffice for the film. Critics didn't give him any awards. Plus he's kinda a newcomer in the Oscar race.
4. Will Smith wins: Somehow his immense popularity and the film's popularity translate into a win.
But...No critics awards, solid but not fantastic performance.
I see the first two as being the most probable but for now, unlikely. We'll see. Whitaker is definitely the frontrunner.

Unlike SAG or GG, Oscar doesn't specify the category for the voters, so which category to put Leo in is up to each voter. And voters are lazy; that's where WB screwed up the whole campaign. They waited too long before deciding to list Leo as Lead in their FYC ads, after they submitted him as supporting to SAG. Some may have put Nicholson in lead because there was confusion early on with that as well.

I feel so bad for Kate Winslet. She truly deserves the win. It's possibly her best performance to date and probably one of the most deserving.

I don't want them to give it to her just because she has raked in a bunch of nominations. I want her win to be justified and this year, it would be.

I just noticed this about Judi Dench...

97 - Actress, Mrs. Brown
98 - S. Actress, Shakespeare in Love (WIN)

00 - S. Actress, Chocolat
01 - Actress, Iris

05 - Actress, Mrs. Henderson Presents
06 - Actress, Notes on a Scandal


All her nominations have been back-to-back pairs (with few years in between for resting, heh).

For best actor -- I pick "none of the above"...

Best actress -- Helen Mirren, of course...

I still think Peter O'Toole can pick up the win, although the SAG loss hurts. However, the screeners that were sent didn't arrive until 1-3 days before the ballots were due, so most already had them in. I can definitely see him getting it.

One day, Judi Dench is gonna win again. The Academy LOVES her.

Oh yea. And it will probably be a Lead Actress award rather than a supporting as that's what her past three nominations have been. Meryl Streep's also gonna win again for sure.

At this point I'd say O'Toole is done... if anyone pulls a Hilary Swank on Whitaker, it's Gosling or Leo.

The first for having a performance that many are calling the best of the year and getting #1 votes, it's only the indie nature of the film stopping him from getting more praise. The more people who see Half Nelson considering that now he is nominated, the better. Too bad the DVD couldn't come out earlier.

The second has had his votes split at every award junction this year, so essentially with 1 nom here his power nearly doubles. Whether or not that means he can win, it's still probably unlikely, but I think the academy wants to award Leo... Not to mention, I think he'd almost be deserving in this case, he's brilliant in BD.

But I still say Whitaker is 95% assured to win for now. He's no Mirren though.

She'll win eventually. I mean, goodness, she has 5 nominations and she's barely 30.

Her performance in Chocolat has to be among the least memorable of any nominated performance in the last 30 years. That was a good (but not great) movie, and I barely remember her even being in it.

And to think she won the SAG for it (Obviously a make-up for her last two losses). I wouldn't say she had the least memorable performance of the past 30 years (Catherine Keener in Capote? Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny?), but it is definitely up there.

I know I'm in a rather small minority, but I think Marisa Tomei deserved her Oscar.

entirely depends on your viewpoint. Chocolat is a top 5 of all time for me.