My theory is... not enough #1 placements. Then again, that theory could be used for a lot of things.

So what happened?

The same thing that happened to Walk the Line last year. It just wasn't a masterpiece to most in the academy. It had great performances, but that's where the greatness really ended. I gave it a B+, but never saw it as being so good that it would be in the race. Actually, I even picked LMS to beat it at the GG.

It just didn't have support beyond the performances, a la Walk the Line. It did have more tech support, but it just wasn't strong enough. I'm actually a bit surprised. I thought it *probably* would get a BP nomination, but when it came down to it, Clint and Steven have a lot more influence and bumped it right out of there.

Walk the Line, though, was on much more tenuous ground with its lack of Guild support. Although it seems odd, as Walk the Line was a big hit with the public, I don't feel like it ever garnered the amount of Oscar buzz that Dreamgirls did this year.

I never thought that Dreamgirls was worthy of a BP nom (it's not a bad film, I'm just not a huge fan), but I also never thought that it wouldn't receive one.

I don't know. I found this pretty shocking.

Most Oscar followers got caught up in the theater experience with all the cheering and applause after each song influencing their judgment of the film. Whereas most Oscar voters saw screeners in their own home.

Also, Dreamworks probably decided that Letters was its horse moreso than Dreamgirls (ala Gladiator over Almost Famous).

I wonder if United 93 was in 6th place ahead of Dreamgirls...

I hate to be the one to say this, but...

Maybe if all the characters were white it would've been nominated.

I knew the Academy wouldn't overlook Eastwood.


Bunch of old dinosaurs.

It just wasn't good enough, that's it. All those talk about the reviews are unimportant was dead wrong. Reviews are as important as the guilds, because most Academy voters agree with the majority of the reviews. I'm going out on a limb and say that Dreamgirls wasn't even #6, that went probably to U93. I'm not even sure if it had the upper hand against Blood Diamond or some of the others

THANK. YOU.

Then call me a liar, but I for one had never ever Dreamgirls in my major predictions. I openly stated it in here and you were all ready to let me have it, so don't take that away from me. I stated the reasons for it time and time again. The signs were all over the place, look at the WGA, the PGA loss, the so-so reviews, I have no idea why each and every single Oscar site and forum user chose to completely ignore the signs. They all called it a lock, to me it would always have been lucky to slip in at #5, it never ever was a lock

That's not true at all. The guilds and the Globes are usually WAAAY better indicators than reviewers.

but to totally ignore it was just wrong. It wasn't like Crash where you had avid followers and haters. It was okayish reviewed all over the place.

I was shocked, too. And I don't hold your club against you know... honestly, until this morning, I was sure it had the best shot at winning BP.

Shack, I don't think it would have been nominated if it had a white cast... that's pretty damn foolish considering the supporting nominations (and likely wins) and tech support. People liked it, but the passion didn't translate to a BP win. It's kind of odd. Then again, the huge number of nominations is HIGHLY inflated by the fact that it got THREE song nominations.... heh..

No, I was convinced. My pride doesn't go as far as endangering my picks by just going after what I like or dislike.

First, I had my share of success with the Oscars the last few years as you very well know. Second, if Dreamgirls would have get the big ones you would have ridiculed me for my stance that it won't get Picture, Screenplay and Director. So at least have the dignity to give that one to me.
Just because not many others predicted it, doesn't mean I got lucky. I was actually more surprised by the fact that Letters snuck in instead of U93 than by the fact that Dreamgirls didn't get in. I made enough mistakes in my predictions for you to mock me about, but don't try to jump on me for Dreamgirls just because you can't imagine anyone would have predicted that

but as lead actor

LA Times article on the subject:

http://www.calendarlive.com/printeditio ... 3952.story

Pretty much hits everything we've covered.

It's more or less this year's Cold Mountain/Walk the Line mixture.

CM had some guild support and a lot of tech support. WTL and CM were both hits and had two acting noms with one frontrunner for the win. CM also had two Best Song noms like Dreamgirls and it ruled the Globes with 8 noms.