98% final predictions:
Achievement in art direction
1. Pan’s Labyrinth
2. Dreamgirls
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
4. The Prestige
5. The Good Shepherd
The Good Shepherd = no shot. The Prestige is unfortunately lacking in support elsewhere, and will probably be overlooked. Pirates has box office in its side, and has some wonderful work from period fare to fantasy spectacles. However, unlike a certain other nominee, Pirates was critically reviled. So, this is a pretty easy 2-way battle. While Dreamgirls
Achievement in cinematography
1. Children of Men
2. Pan’s Labyrinth
3. The Illusionist
4. The Prestige
5. The Black Dahlia
This category is really odd, not just because of the no-Best-Picture thing, but also the fact that only Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men were the only films to score major nominations, and those were in the screenplay categories (Throw in The Prestige and they're the only films here to have other noms
period), so the race is pretty much down to those two. While Pan's Labyrinth (And possibly The Illusionist, if enough voters actually see it) could get votes for being the prettiest film (Which is what many people judge this category in), I think enough people will realize that the category is more than that, and hopefully there are enough CoM fans that feel this'll be their way of awarding the criminally overlooked film.
Achievement in costume design
1. Dreamgirls
2. The Devil Wears Prada
3. Marie Antoinette
4. The Queen
5. Curse of the Golden Flower
Honestly, this is one of the most open categories this year. The two films most could agree were out (The Queen and Golden Flower) surprised and won the Costume Designers Guild awards for best costumes. However, I think that Golden Flower's lone nomination status (Meaning most voters probably won't bother with the screener) and The Queen's lack of focus on costumes still keeps them where I thought they'd be: last. Marie Antoinette is probably the baitiest here, but like Golden Flower, its lone nom status is probably fatal. Prada probably stands the best chance of playing spoiler, because not only will most voters see it (Thank YOU, Best Actress nom), the movie IS fashion, which could make people feel that it's the film that hinged most on its costumes, hence making it the most worthy (Not a bad way of judging, mind you). Still, Dreamgirls has an equally extensive wardrobe, and will probably walk away with the prize for being the closest to a period film with multiple noms.
Achievement in film editing
1. The Departed
2. Babel
3. United 93
4. Children of Men
5. Blood Diamond
The category almost always goes to a BP nominee, and while Babel's intertwining storylines will make it worthy in the eyes of many voters, The Departed's complicated timeline and action movie edits one ups Babel.
Achievement in makeup
1. Pan’s Labyrinth
2. Apocalypto
3. Click
I have a hard time seeing the Academy turning away the fantasy and torture make-up twofer of Pan's for a Mel Gibson or Adam Sandler pic.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
1. The Queen
2. Notes on a Scandal
3. Pan’s Labyrinth
4. Babel
5. The Good German
This category is right up there with Picture in terms of just how hard it is to pick a reasonable winner. The Good German is Thomas Newman's eighth nomination with no wins, but I doubt he'll win for a critical and commercial flop with no others noms. Babel is a Picture nominee with a very multi-cultural soundtrack that would make it a great contender - had Gustavo not won for Brokeback Mountain last year. Which brings us to probably the three big contenders. Pan's seems like an easy film to rank the lowest, seeing as it's the first nom from an otherwise unspectacular composer (His only other major film was del Toro's The Devil's Backbone), but it's also a very light, lovely score that's both fantasy and war themed. Notes is from the much-acclaimed Philip Glass, and he could get some votes from voters feeling he already deserves one (And unlike German, his film was actually good), but there are also people that feel his scores (Especially NOTS's) are too overbearing. So I think in the end it'll go to the second rookie of the bunch, Alexandre Desplat, a much acclaimed composer finally making his mark here (He won the Golden Globe for scoring The Painted Veil), and the film's Best Picture status only helps.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
1. “I Need to Wake Up†from An Inconvenient Truth
2. “Listen†from Dreamgirls
3. “Love You I Do†from Dreamgirls
4. “Patience†from Dreamgirls
5. “Our Town†from Carsâ€Â
Probably my riskiest prediction here, but I'm beginning to think that the Dreamgirls song might end up splitting each other, and voters might want to make a statement by awarding Etheridge's anthem to take action against global warming.
Achievement in sound editing
1. Blood Diamond
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
3. Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Flags of Our Fathers
5. Apocalypto
Could a vote for Letters really be considered a consolation prize? Can Sound editing BE a consolation prize? I think they'll end up going for the loudest film here, and with Pirates already taking Visual Effects I think they'll go for Blood Diamond...as a consolation prize.
Achievement in sound mixing
1. Dreamgirls
2. Apocalypto
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
4. Blood Diamond
5. Flags of Our Fathers
While Apocalypto could get pity votes for 19-time loser Kevin O'Connell, I don't think enough people know he's a 19-time loser to vote for him. So they'll probably go for the music-centered film, like they did with Chicago and Ray
Achievement in visual effects
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. Poseidon
So, do you vote for the financial loser or the box-office smash here? No contest, really.