Almost each year has a dark horse at the oscars. Some rather small movie that comes out of (pretty much) nowhere and ends up getting quite a couple of major nominations and in the end, some wins too. Last year, it was Lost in Translation and the year before that definitely The Pianist, a movie that deserved the Best Oscar award more than any other movie nominated back then.

This year is pretty crowded with possible oscar-contenders, dare I say. Some movies are already near-locks like Closer and The Aviator while there is a wide array on those which are very likely to grab a nom.

What movie this year, will be the aforementioned dark horse, though?

My personal pick goes to Hotel Rwanda. The Academy just loves movies like that. Many call it this year's Schindler's List due to somewhat similar content. This movie delas with genocide in Rwanda, about 10 years ago when almost one million people were murdered by the government. A man tried to hide as many as he could in his hotel and this way, he saved their lives.

The movie has already won the People's Choice Award at the Toronte International Film Festival and those who have seen it seem to love the movie. I just think it has a lot going for it - good actors (Don Chedale, Nick Nolte) and a captivating topic.

What are your opinions?

Vera Drake has just been released in 2 theaters last weekend and is getting great reviews. I see it as a dark horse that can grab 4-5 nominations, including best picture.

Something deep down inside me keeps saying keep an eye out for Garden State.

I can't think of any true darkhorses. The Pianist was kind of one (being that everybody thought Far From Heaven had the nomination in the bag), but Lost in Translation DEFINATELY was not a darkhorse. People were clamoring for its nomination starting in late August of last year. Everybody who saw it in its first month knew that it would do great. I guess you could say that if Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind were to be nominated that it would be just as big of a darkhorse as Lost in Translation was.

I don't think a dark horse is going to be nominated this year. Vera Drake is an independent film, and there are at least 4 independent films this year who are going to be fighting for slots against the big American studios. Best Actress? Sure, why not, but Monster, Monsters Ball, etc. were not nominated for the big awards either.

I think the big studios' slots are lacking this year. If Alexander disappoints, The Passion of the Christ may be the only big one box office wise contending for Best Picture, and even that is really an independent film. The Aviator, Closer, Phantom of the Opera, Ray, Finding Neverland, and rest of the contender won't get close to 100M without the help of Oscar nominations and wins. They all have the feel of independent, art-house films even if they are backed by big studios. That's why I think a foreign film such as The Sea Within, The Motorcycle Diaries, and A Very Long Engagement really has a chance this year. Big Hollywood releases have been weak this year.

While I don't disagree with your statement in general, I disagree with some of your choices. The Aviator and Phantom of the Opera are the two films of the winter that MOST stink of big studio manipulation.

To me, Phantom of the Opera would be a darkhorse actually :?

I think Vera Drake could be a dark horse. Best Actress for sure, but then also Best Picture, Screenplay and maybe some technical ones. A lot like The Pianist.

Oh and Artur, is a trailer up for Hotel Rwanda?

Yep, but it doesn't work for me for some reason.

Here it is:

http://movies.channel.aol.com/movie/mai ... &mid=19505

Wow...It looks pretty good. Was this in Africa?

Yep, in Rwanda, about 10 years ago when over 1 million people were murdered within 3 months.

Wow. The guy playing the lead looks soo familiar. I know I've seen him before.

Don Cheadle. He has starred in Swordfish, Ocean's Eleven, Mission to Mars, Out of Sight, Traffic and many others.

Oh, I think he was also on ER for a short time.

You can chek out his full filmography here:

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000332/

Haha...yea, he was on ER!

I saw it at the Toronto International Film Festival in September and it brought down the house. It won the Peoples Choice Award, so it's in good company considering past winners include: Whale Rider, Amelie, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, American Beauty, and Life Is Beautiful.

As a side note, when my screening was finished and they prepared for the usual question and answer session with the director, the festival people introduced a surprise guest......Paul Rusesabagina himself, along with his wife. Now, I don't usually hang around for the Q and A's, since I'm usually rushing to another film, but I made a point to stay and shake the hand of a truly important human being.

Looks like Hotel Rwanda might very well end up being nominated in quite a couple of categories, including Best Picture

Not going to be a movie about an abortionist. No way, not in this socio-political climate. Look for acting and perhaps screenplay and direction, but they aren't going to give it an best picture nod over Garden State, sideways, closer, Hotel Rwanda, and Eternal Sunshine. Thats just my thought.

Right now I lean towards Rwanda cause of the buzz, and the Eternal because well, I;ve seen it. :wink: I'm going to watch all the others though and then be able to make a better call.

When they go for the indies in the BP category it is definately a content driven selection more than technical stylistic, etc. Look at what films that make under 20 million get included. I always return to secrets and Lies (maybe cause I love it, maybe cause I have a point, i don't know which yet). it was about a family that ultimately accpeted a black daughter heh. would have been quite different if they didn't at the end there. Even with all the great direction (inclusion of the photos being taken etc) it wouldn't have gotten a nod if it ended in a different fashion.

Obviously Million Dollar Baby

I went back through my 2002 predictions and I had The Pianist in my predictions of the 5 best picture nominees as early as June/July (I got all of them right, too, minus Road to Perdition instead of Chicago ).

I do remember at one point though Far From Heaven seemed like a lock, like andaroo said, so I think that's what kept it from being on people's predictions, but I still don't know if I'd call it a dark horse.


I also wouldn't call Lost in Translation a dark horse...when you're the year's best reviewed movie, there's always even a slight chance of a nomination. The Coppola name doesn't hurt.


True dark horses are movies like In the Bedroom (over what was considered to be one of the year's biggest contenders, The Shipping News), and again this year's Million Dollar Baby which came out of nowhere, mainly because it wasn't even scheduled for this year :wink:

Hotel Rwanda....yes, but it's had plenty of buzz for a while, at least for Don Cheadle.

Sideways is winning many critics choices but it's not the kind of film Hollywood usually nominates for an Oscar. Would anyone consider that a dark horse or do you think it's a shoo in?

Depends on if you mean a win or a nom...

It is a lock for a nom, but a possible dark horse for a win.

Yea, it wont even be nominated. That was back in October, come on. :wink:

Would Closer be considered a dark horse? Many have written it off, and it probably doesn't have a change, so I would say so. If it is nominated, it would shock some people, for sure.

Oh, and Rod, In The Bedroom was a dark horse over The Shipping News? I wouldn't say so.