Babel
Blood Diamond
Departed, The
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes On A Scandal
Queen, The
United 93

http://www.bfca.org/top10.asp

I guess we still need to wait tomorrow for other categories.

Blood Diamond making the list is bizarre. It only had a score of 82, and unlike Memoirs and Phantom, BD is released early enough for them to realize it's not going anywhere.

Full List

BEST PICTURE:
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ben Affleck – “Hollywoodland”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adam Beach – “Flags of Our Fathers”
Djimon Hounsou – “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Catherine O’Hara – “For Your Consideration”
Emma Thompson – “Stranger Than Fiction”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Clint Eastwood – “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass – “United 93”
Martin Scorsese – “The Departed”

BEST WRITER:
Michael Arndt – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillermo Arriaga – “Babel”
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta – “Little Children”
Zach Helm – “Stranger Than Fiction”
William Monahan – “The Departed”
Peter Morgan – “The Queen”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
“Cars”
“Flushed Away”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”
“Over the Hedge”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR:
Cameron Bright – “Thank You For Smoking”
Joseph Cross – “Running With Scissors”
Paul Dano – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Freddie Highmore – “A Good Year”
Jaden Christopher Syre Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”

BEST YOUNG ACTRESS:
Ivana Baquero – “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Abigail Breslin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Shareeka Epps – “Half Nelson”
Dakota Fanning – “Charlotte’s Web”
Keke Palmer – “Akeelah and the Bee”

BEST COMEDY MOVIE:
Borat
For Your Consideration
Little Miss Sunshine
The Devil Wears Prada
Thank You For Smoking

BEST FAMILY FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Akeelah and the Bee
Charlotte’s Web
Flicka
Lassie
Pirates of the Caribbean 2

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION:
Elizabeth I
The Librarian
Nightmares & Dreamscapes
The Ron Clark Story
When the Levees Broke

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Apocalypto
Days of Glory
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver
Water

BEST SONG:
“I Need to Wake Up” – Melissa Etheridge – “An Inconvenient Truth”
“Listen” – Beyonce – “Dreamgirls”
“My Little Girl” – Tim McGraw – “Flicka”
“The Neighbor” – Dixie Chicks – “Shut Up & Sing”
“Never Gonna Break My Faith” – Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige – “Bobby”
“Ordinary Miracle” – Sarah McLachlan – “Charlotte’s Web”

BEST SOUNDTRACK:
Babel
Cars
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet
Marie Antoinette

BEST COMPOSER:
Philip Glass – “The Illusionist”
Clint Mansell – “The Fountain”
Thomas Newman – “The Good German”
Gustavo Santaolalla – “Babel”
Howard Shore – “The Departed”
Hans Zimmer – “The Da Vinci Code”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
An Inconvenient Truth
Shut Up & Sing
This Film Is Not Yet Rated
Who Killed the Electric Car?
Wordplay

no children of men?

I fear that Children of Men is a great movie with no buzz behind it.. but I can't say anything though, haven't seen the film yet..

This seems to be a pretty good list, though

(I'm really glad Babel made into the list, Sunshine too but that's expected.. now if they just have Prada instead of Blood Diamond)

Unless the Globes save CoM, I'm gonna be receiving a big whoopin' in the kisser by Snrub.

Blood, Diamond, just...WTF?

Despite no Children of Men, which would have been nice to see (although I never really did expect it; unfortunately the film hasn't been able to build up any buzz because it hasn't even opened yet in the US)...

... I'm supremely happy with the inclusion of United 93, Babel and Little Children (!!!!!!!!). Little Children has been getting zip, and finally it makes something (and the BFCA sure is something; they are one of the better indicators. Better than anything we've gotten thus far).

Peace,
Mike.

All three are expected to show up though, given their BFCA scores are 94, 95, and 94. The film with highest score to be ignored is Flags (93), and that's understandable with Letters getting better reviews.

Letters will probably end up having the best score of the year. 96, 97?

I understand that. Little Children was the only one that I emphasized simply because it's been getting nothing, and I'm glad for it to have made this. That being said, you and I both know their scores don't always jive with their top 10 list anyways, so just because they are expected doesn't mean they will make it (and vice versa; look at Blood Diamond).

Peace,
Mike.

Notes continues to hang around, but otherwise this list doesn't distinguish *that* much because all the big guys made it.

So, question I want to pose to you all:

At this point, are there really any other films fighting for the 5 Oscar Best Picture slots other than these 7 below?

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
Babel
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine

I mean, what else is there that could possibly grab a Best Picture nomination? I'm trying to think, and I just can't seem to see anything else getting in. Little Children hasn't gotten enough support overall (has won virtually nothing, has no other categories going for it either, not even Winslet is a for sure thing unfortunately). If you consider the BFCA history, all 5 of the future Oscar Best Picture nominees for this year are very likely in this BFCA top 10 list. I can't see Blood Diamond getting a Best Picture nod at all, and I can't see Notes on a Scandal making it either, and nothing outside this list save for Flags seems possible (and with Iwo Jima being deemed much superior to Flags, and with Iwo Jima getting all of the awards over it, Flags seems like history now too).

Is it the above 7 films I listed fighting for the 5 spots?

I feel like The Departed, The Queen, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Dreamgirls are all in, and Babel/United 93/Little Miss Sunshine are fighting for that final slot. But have we ever deciphered the Oscar Best Picture nominees so early? Is it really down to only 7 films already?

These are all questions I'm posing - I'm not trying to claim I know any of this. I'm truly wondering - what are everyone's thoughts now? Am I speaking too soon? Should I wait for the rest of the BFCA and more?

EDIT: I suppose I forgot about The Good German and The Good Shepherd - are those two still in the race? I haven't really been keeping on eye on them. I find them both blurred together because of the similar titles. I don't think I can even tell you which one's the DeNiro one... is it Shepherd?

Peace,
Mike.

Why consider Babel at this point for Oscar at least? Paramount is not going to get Dreamgirls and Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima (co-production!) nominated.

I mean, if one assumes Letters/Departed get nominated that's already 2 for Warner.

1. Dreamgirls (probable winner?)
2. Letters From Iwo Jima
3. The Departed
4. The Queen
5. Little Miss Sunshine
-------------------------
6. United 93

With United 93/Little Miss Sunshine splitting BP/BD (which I still think LMS is ineligible for?). United 93 has surprised me, because while I had always left it as a question mark, Arthur can tell you that I was never super confident about its chances. I do think Greengrass still has a better chance of getting a nomination than the film. Direction helps United 93, screenplay helps Little Miss Sunshine. BO/ensemble tips the balance to LMS. Although U93 should get BD and a DGA, maybe even a PGA considering they seem not to typically go for smaller films... who knows.

In the end, this is a fine crop of pictures (assuming I like Dreamgirls and Letters From Iwo Jima). I'm thrilled about Eastwood's Japanese film, and anybody can tell you that I wasn't so thrilled about Flags Of Our Fathers. Seeing the reaction to LFIJ, it would be a shame if FOOF garnered the nomation instead of the more interesting/daring/critically acclaimed (so far) film.

The Good German and The Good Shepherd are both dead, reviews have killed it. You would be hearing about these films mentioned like Letters and Dreamgirls if there was a chance for them at this point. Will Smith is still marginally alive in Happyness, but the award for Best Actor will likely come down to Leo vs. Forest.

Best Supporting Actor is a fucking mess, it's anybody's game at this point. It would be amazing if Whitaker, Murphy and Hudson won the acting awards though.

I hope Watanabe is eligible/good/nominated.

Well, then you prove my point even further andaroo (if we take Babel out of contention), then there's only 6 films left going for the 5 slots. And if you think United 93 is not as good for Best Picture (but more likely to get directing, something which LMS can't get at the Guilds, I don't think), then we basically roughly have our 5 Oscar Best Picture nominees right now:

The Departed
The Queen
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine

Peace,
Mike.

Babel keeps showing up though, and we know it's going to do well at Globes. It really does feel like another Crash, which also didn't win any BP/BD critically except for Ebert/Chicago but just keeps popping on the important lists.

Notes on a Scandal still hangs around. The two Goods are officially dead. Bobby never entered the race. Little Children absolutely needs GG, along with more nominations from BFCA tomorrow. Otherwise, I have the same 7 that Mike pointed out.

Yeah, that's the thing with Babel. It's one of the only few that have actually made all of the lists so far: NBR, AFI and BFCA.

Peace,
Mike.

The way I see it...

Little Miss Sunshine is a natural 5th due to its success factor, something Babel and United 93 didn't enjoy. United 93 is really the one film that needed this late surge to pull ahead. U93 is winning awards that Babel really needed, most importantly Iñárritu awards.

Babel does show up on lists though, but kind of nebulous lists IMO, and Flags and Babel are natural candidates for any list which allows the inclusion of more than 5 pictures or lists that split by musical/comedy, and both have huge chances at the Globes (although if the Globes are anything like last year, U93 has a good shot there even if it doesn't at Best Picture).

Not that I have a problem with Babel, it's a fine film and would be a decent addition to the final five.

(Don't get me wrong Mike, U93 is my favorite film of the year... perhaps I'm not trying to get my hopes up too much, but it has quite a bit going against it).

BFCA I think pegged the BD list:



Replace Blood Diamond with Flags Of Our Fathers and you've pretty much got the top 10 contendors this year.

Right now I think we have four locks - Dreamgirls, The Departed, Letters, The Queen. Can't see any of them faltering since they all look strong for various guilds. I do also have Little Miss Sunshine at No. 5, but it's actually one film out of those three contenders to have no chance at a BD nom, so its position is precarious.

These BFCA lists for Actor and Actress are pretty good too. Especially if you merge the Leo nomination into one and label it "The Departed".

I'd replace BD with Volver. Flags is pretty much dead.

Nominations:

BEST PICTURE:
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ben Affleck – “Hollywoodland”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adam Beach – “Flags of Our Fathers”
Djimon Hounsou – “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Catherine O’Hara – “For Your Consideration”
Emma Thompson – “Stranger Than Fiction”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Clint Eastwood – “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass – “United 93”
Martin Scorsese – “The Departed”

BEST WRITER:
Michael Arndt – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillermo Arriaga – “Babel”
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta – “Little Children”
Zach Helm – “Stranger Than Fiction”
William Monahan – “The Departed”
Peter Morgan – “The Queen”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
“Cars”
“Flushed Away”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”
“Over the Hedge”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR:
Cameron Bright – “Thank You For Smoking”
Joseph Cross – “Running With Scissors”
Paul Dano – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Freddie Highmore – “A Good Year”
Jaden Christopher Syre Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”

BEST YOUNG ACTRESS:
Ivana Baquero – “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Abigail Breslin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Shareeka Epps – “Half Nelson”
Dakota Fanning – “Charlotte’s Web”
Keke Palmer – “Akeelah and the Bee”

BEST COMEDY MOVIE:
Borat
For Your Consideration
Little Miss Sunshine
The Devil Wears Prada
Thank You For Smoking

BEST FAMILY FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Akeelah and the Bee
Charlotte’s Web
Flicka
Lassie
Pirates of the Caribbean 2

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION:
Elizabeth I
The Librarian
Nightmares & Dreamscapes
The Ron Clark Story
When the Levees Broke

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Apocalypto
Days of Glory
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver
Water

BEST SONG:
“I Need to Wake Up” – Melissa Etheridge – “An Inconvenient Truth”
“Listen” – Beyonce – “Dreamgirls”
“My Little Girl” – Tim McGraw – “Flicka”
“The Neighbor” – Dixie Chicks – “Shut Up & Sing”
“Never Gonna Break My Faith” – Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige – “Bobby”
“Ordinary Miracle” – Sarah McLachlan – “Charlotte’s Web”

BEST SOUNDTRACK:
Babel
Cars
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet
Marie Antoinette

BEST COMPOSER:
Philip Glass – “The Illusionist”
Clint Mansell – “The Fountain”
Thomas Newman – “The Good German”
Gustavo Santaolalla – “Babel”
Howard Shore – “The Departed”
Hans Zimmer – “The Da Vinci Code”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
An Inconvenient Truth
Shut Up & Sing
This Film Is Not Yet Rated
Who Killed the Electric Car?
Wordplay

http://www.oscarwatch.com/2006/12/bfca_ ... .html#more

Full list: http://www.oscarwatch.com/2006/12/bfca_ ... .html#more

Im glad apocalypto got nominated in the foreign category.

Good call.

Babel got 7 nominations, LMS got Ensemble nom, and United 93 got Best Director nom. Everybody has something. Still a close race.

No screenplay for Letters or Dreamgirls; no ensemble or Sheen for The Queen .

No Brad Pitt or Ken Watanabe.

I had to think about this statement for awhile, and I guess I disagree. Not because the stats line up (they sort of do) just because I think in general the reason why Crash went so far/won, etc. was due to factors like:

- A very early campaign that reeked of "importance"
- Vocal critics, even the super negative ones made 'Crash' an issue
- Things like an Oprah special
- Race relations issues due to Katrina
- Successful DVD campaign
- Pretty fantastic Box Office

While Babel has some of this it just doesn't seem to have the umfph needed for a Best Picture nomination I guess. I guess I just don't see anybody caring for it, it's kind of like the contestant on Survivor that gets into the final 6 to 7 people because he's so understated and non threatening that nobody takes him out. Beyond Babel's production company, it's non showing as a winner in some of these awards and the general lack of interest from the public and the even the critics it just seems like it would be an... unfortunate Best Picture nominee. Definately not one the audience would have any interest in.

It's also sad to me that Apocalypto and Letters are considered Foreign. I'm actually glad they are not eligible for Oscars.

This category should be actually reserved for actual foreign films, not (partially) American producers/directors (well... Mel could be considered an American Filmaker I guess... do the Aussies want him back?) producing films in other languages.

Seems like they take opportunity away from writers/producers/directors who have a tough time getting their films recognized in the US.