Up until a couple weeks ago, Cars was almost a virtual lock for a Best Animated feature win. But with it's 77% RT score, it's certainly lost that status. There's a load of contending animated movies this year, including:

Cars
Over the Hedge
Ice Age: The Meltdown
Flushed Away
Happy Feet

Other than Over the Hedge, which I think could give Pixar a run for it's money, the one I could particularily see taking it is Flushed Away. If it get's that favourable claymation reception like W&G or Chicken Run, it could pull out a 90+ RT score, enough to pull off the win.

If one of the end-of-the-year movies really catches on, critically or financially, of course it can beat Cars. It's not a "Finding Nemo-everyone else pack up your things and leave" type of success. And the Academy is not afraid to give Aardman awards.

Also, Shack, Flushed Away isn't claymation! Although it has the same look as Aardman's previous features.

77% is pretty good, you know.

But, I just can't imagine another film taking it except MAYBE Happy Feet.

Flushed Away has a good chance. If I had to bet money right now I'd put it on this movie for the animation award.

Trailer:
http://www.dreamworks.com/trailers/flus ... qt_352.mov

McKellan, Winslet, Aardman, Dreamworks, it has an academy-friendly group of talent working for it and looks pretty good.

Flushed Away and Happy Feet are possible contenders.

Scanner Darkly is going to win it. Period.

Scanner Darkly? NEVER

I don't think Happy Feet will pose a threat. Flushed Away is the only other serious contender, but it'd either ned to score 90+% at RT or gross at least $150 million to compete.

It's either Flushed Away or Cars. Flushed Away will get it if it ends up being REALLY good. Otherwise, the combination of Pixar and still good reception (despite being labelled as one of Pixar's poorer efforts) will allow Cars to get it.

Scanner Darkly? Sorry guys, isn't happening. Ice Age 2, Over the Hedge have worse reception than Cars, so both of those are out too.

PEACE, Mike.

Total bias on my part, but I just can't see Over the Hedge being a contender. Then again, Shark Tale scored a nom, so OTH is probably going to be right up there. Right now, I think Cars has it, though. And it's only competitor from a major studio right now is Flushed Away.

I think if A Scanner Darkly is well-received, it will most definitely have a shot at a nomination. I think Waking Life was just a little too small, and even though it did a bit of trailblazing, I just don't think enough attention was paid to it. I think that will be different for A Scanner.

The early words on Scanner Darkly were quite bad, so I don't see it being a contender at all.

Shrek has the lowest RT rating among all the winners, and it is at 88%. If Cars had been around 85% range, it would've been a lock. 77% does leave the door open (I think Wallace & Gromit would've won against Cars), but it looks to be a weak year for the category.

My money is on Flushed Away.

Now if I think back, I think Wallace & Gromit would have probably won against everything except for Nemo and probably The Incredibles... The Academy just loves Aardman.

I don't think W&G would've won against Shrek, which was, after all, a phenomenon in itself. Spirited Away would've lost in any other years, so I'm very glad it was up against 4 lackluster nominees. This is how I think academy would vote if the winners were all released in the same year, while all other circumstances remained the same (box office, how they are perceived culturally, etc., even though for sure those would've all been different):

1. Finding Nemo
2. Shrek
3. The Incredibles
4. W&G
5. Spirited Away

I agree with Nemo being #1. I think it is maybe just a little less appreciated than The Incredibles, but it did have the box-office.

I would say that The Incredibles would have beaten Shrek, though. It had certainly better reviews and about the same gross.

The best of all those was Spirited Away, anyway.

The reason I think Shrek would've beaten The Incredibles is that it did beat Monsters Inc. that year, which had a similar gross and reviews, although it did come a little lower than The Incredibles on both accounts.

The only challenge Cars has is Happy Feet...

Flushed Away looks retarded

Cars could lose. Not to A Scanner Darkly... getting recognition by a nomination would be a victory in itself. But xiayun is right, there are some (by my eyes) fairly credible reviews floating about which state that the thing just isn't very good. Of the past winners, only Spirited Away could not have won against Cars probably.

Over the Hedge seems like the next most-likely at this point. I really don't think Happy Feet is going to go anywhere... just a feeling.

Dreamworks is a powerful studio in the animation game. This is the kind of year where (at this point) some underdog foreign animated film could come from nowhere.

Flushed Away... the animation style is Wallace-ish but the film is not a Nick Park production. There are some screening reviews on IMDB... grain of salt time.

BTW, also on the radar is:

Everyone's Hero (formerly "Yankee Irving") by 20th Century Fox. A CG animated film... Christopher Reeves was working on this when he died....



Being released on September 15th. An Americana film released on the week of September 11th 5th anniversary.

Happy Feet is the dark horse.

Scanner Darkly is at 20% on RT; it's going nowhere.

Pixar has only lost once (Monsters Inc. losing to Shrek) and Aardman has never lost, so it's gonna be close, between Flushed Away and Cars. I don't think any of the others will come close.

Aardman lost once, W&G: A Grand Day Out...only that it lost to another Aardman feature (Creature Comfort), hehe.

I'm sorry but Cars does NOT have this locked up. Have you seen the film? It's probably the weakest Pixar film imo. I think the film that will win Animated this year will be one with a more interesting story while having a fresh appeal to it.

Even the weakest Pixar film is better than most others.

I think if Flushed Away is any good (as I expect it to be) it will give Cars a definite run for its money and even be the frontrunner, but I don't see any other animated film on the horizon threatening either of those two.

But you forgot how compelling and heartwarming Happy Feet will be.

When that penguin's mother and father get eaten by that polar bear.

It can easily beat Ice Age and Over the Hedge...so that leaves Happy Feet and Flushed Away. It's not a lock so it all depends on how those movies do...

In an ideal world A scanner Darkly would be great, it would be nominated, and it would win...and it would make up for Waking Life's snub, but...