You know the drill. My very early gut instinct selections are:

Matt Damon - The Good Shepherd
Brad Pitt - Babel
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Derek Luke - Catch A Fire
George Clooney - The Good German

Matt Damon has put together several strong roles over the years, and I think he'll get his second nom since 1997's Good Will Hunting. Unlike Ben Affleck, who has damaged his career considerably by roles chosen and off camera drama, Damon has consistantly gained respect in the industry in different genres.

Brad Pitt is a pick that I don't want to happen. I'd hate it. He doesn't deserve any special praise after his public frolicking about at the expense of another celebrity, who is well liked. Unfortanely, this film tore it up at Cannes this year and won Best Director, and with Pitt firmly established in the elite circles of Hollywood, he's due for another nomination. It's been even longer for him than it's been for Damon, going all the way back to 1995's Twelve Monkeys. I'm personally hoping that he'll be held back because of backlash over scorning Jennifer Aniston publicly like he did.

Will Smith is the closest thing to Tom Hanks that the industry has. Immensely likeable, down to Earth, despite amazing success and popularity, and versatile. Who wouldn't root for Will Smith to win an Oscar except members of the KKK? Even some of them would probably be secretly crossing their fingers. He was nominated for his brilliant portrayal of Muhammad Ali, and very possibly could have won had the film been stronger. He's ripe for a win this year.

Derek Luke is basically unknown, and his color is going to be the only thing to work against him if reports of the Hotel Rwanda quality film Catch a Fire are true. Oscar needs a fresh face in the crowd, so that's why I believe he'll get in, and not Forest Whitaker for his role as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. One of them will probably make it, giving us two black lead actors up for the Best Actor award this year. I give the edge to Luke. Those would be my top 5 picks if I had any faith in the academy to be color blind, but I don't. Is Derek Luke the next Denzel? We'll see.

George Clooney is my 5th pick because I think the academy is currently in the middle of a love affair with him, and they'll continue supporting his good work, this time in a leading role. He is my weakest pick of the group, though.

DiCaprio is most likely gonna snatch a nom with two high profiles coming out.

Yes, he was my other guy, but I went with Clooney because I am very unsure about that 5th spot, and his film is more Oscar-ish than the two Leo is doing, but Leo could definitely get another nod. It's up in the air. It hard to believe that 3 of the Ocean's 11 actors would make the finally 5, so Clooney would be the odd man out between himself, Pitt, and Damon, I would think.

I'd put him ahead of Derek Luke. Then again, Forest Whitaker is out there as well. I'd put him into the race ahead of Luke too.

I agree with Smith, Damon and Pitt, though. The Academy certainly owes Pitt another nomination by now. I don't think Clooney and Luke will get the noms. I'd replace them with DiCaprio and Whitaker.

Pitt might just win it or DiCaprio. Smith's film looks waaay too corny to be awarded an Oscar for. Whitaker will probably be great, but I doubt he'll be awarded on his first nom. Damon...it's just a feeling he won't win.

Scorsese knows how to bring actors to Oscar noms and wins. DiCaprio has been lauded a lot in the last years. For The Aviator, Catch me if you can. Already nominated once. Pitt's role in Babel will most likely be very showy (see the actors in 21 Grams) and Pitt, by now, is a huge force in Hollywood and he has been overlooked for a long long time.

Tough guess, but I'd probably go with Pitt as my early prime candidate for the BA win.

The male categories are harder for me to predict until I see the performances or read reviews. I'll try tomorrow.

Oh, and Mav, you're not bitter or anything toward Pitt are you?

I used to like Pitt, but I've pretty much lost all respect for him after the way he handled that whole situation. I'm putting my bias behind me, though, cause the more I look at it, I can see a nomination. I just hope enough people in the academy think that a humbling would do him more good than an ego stroke.

Um..I'd like to add Javier Bardem for Goya's Ghosts(if it ever does get released). And probably Patrick Wilson in Little Children, who is getting praise in most reviews, might not make the cut, but he's still a candidate. Also Jude Law for Breaking and Entering.

Peter O'Toole has a lot of early Oscar buzz for Venus. Man, I hope that works out. AMPAS may have a chance to right a 44-year-and-counting wrong. The man should have about 4 statues on his mantle right about now.

7 noms no wins yet...if he manages to get nominated this time, he will win for sure.

That's what they said about Richard Burton when he got his 7th (and final) nom in '77 with Equus. Then 20-something-year-old Richard Dreyfuss won. If they can fuck you on your seventh, they can and will fuck you on your eighth.

Oscar seems to have gotten out of the 'lifetime achievement' Oscar habit lately anyway. Albert Finney losing for Erin Brockovich, for example. So overdue.

Okay, I know what needs to happen for him to win. O'Toole needs to die right after the announcement of the noms. He'll win for sure then.

Equus... Was that a good movie? Harry Potter is doing the stage production of Equus in London.

I am not terribly familiar with the movie Equus. It was probably one of those movies Burton couldn't recall making. The man had a 'lost weekend' period that lasted 25 years.

Henry Fonda? Or did he die right after he won...I know Jane accepted it for him.

Henry Fonda died shortly after winning. But I think everyone knew by then that he...wasn't going to be starring in Airport 1983, if you catch my drift.

Thanks...I knew his health was getting bad by that time.

Here are my predictions for Best Actor:

Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd
Ed Harris, Copying Beethoven
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Brad Pitt, Babel
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

I think Whitaker is the only sure thing so far, surprised you would overlook him. Peter O'Toole is another one thats getting major buzz, i'd switch out Luke and Clooney or Damon for those two, hell I dont even think Pitt will make it, since Babel seems more like a Crash or Traffic where it's a big ensemble piece.

I wouldnt count out Jackman either, Fountain might not be a major best picture player but if his performance is as great as some are saying I wouldnt be incredibly surprised with a best actor nod.

If you're talking to me, you must not have read my comments. I definitely didn't overlook him.

Hmm, I'm not sure if I like the batch this year. Supporting Actor and Actress just seem a lot more interesting...

I'll say:
Brad Pitt, Babel
Forest Whittaker, The Last King of Scotland
Russell Crowe, A Good Year
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Matt Damon, The Good Shepard

Surprised nobody has mentioned Crowe yet, the movie looks nothing more than a pleasent watch, but Crowe around Oscar time is hard to stop. If Cinderella Man came out in this season last year, he would have nominations in 4 out of 6 years in this decade. It's not like the academy feels he's been awarded too much either, it's been 2 years since his last, and this will make up for Cinderella's performance being overlooked, really.

Pitt, well he has the beard and transformation thing going, and Babel will be picking up enough steam to push him in. Probably the closest thing to a sure bet.

Whittaker, I trust the buzz I guess. Could be the winner.

Leo, well with his two movies, and the fact that he is increasingly becoming the prime actor in Hollywood, it shouldn't be too much of an issue to get a nom.

Damon, yeah the awarding for multiple movies thing applies too, and he does look pretty good in the role, judging from the pictures so far. The upkept eyeglasses thing and all.

I wanted to post my comments abot Whitaker that I made in the Contenders II thread:



Oh, and Shack, I did mention Crowe in my "lame" thread, but I don't see anything happening, just like it didn't after his great performance in Cinderella Man. He's already got plenty of past love, and I think the phone throwing antics and general personality have turned off moviegoers and academy members alike, so that's why I didn't mention him here. I guess you can never count him out, but I'll believe it when I see it where he's concerned now.

It was a good movie. But the play is bmuch etter. In fact, the play is tremendous, one of the most powerful and disturbing dramatic works in recent decades. I highly recommend it- you will not regret it!

Hey! Where did Christian Bale go in all of this. He has revcieved rave reviews with his past few films, and with The Prestige i don't see why he wouldn't have a shot at a nom.

I don't think The Prestige is going anywhere or will carry Bale through to the end of the season. Things are possible but...

Whitaker looks good but I wouldn't call him a lock, far from it, it really depends on the response of the film, being that is a smaller one. With a few exceptions, Whitaker is a great actor working with a lot of sub par material. If any of these established stars needed a nomination it would be him.

Brad Pitt looks like he could be returning for his second nomination, but I'm unsure. I wouldn't call Derek Luke unknown, he picked up a lot of print for Fischer and the movie looks pretty daring and deep, I'm keeping my eye on him, Catch a Fire actually looks interesting. The Pitt nomination specifically makes me think that Babel (and Blanchett) have chances beyond actor.

If I had to go with a "sure bet" at this point I would say Matt Damon because he's got two Oscar aiming films, he's a former winner in another category, he's had a good run lately with the Bourne movies so he's a bit "hot".

I would never count out Will Smith or Russell Crowe. Not sure about Clooney.

Mav, a question


I don't know how long it's been since a set of 5 Best Picture nominees didn't have at least one Actor nominations. So, in your opinion, which are the one (or more) films here that you think will be nominated for Best Picture... if any?

I guess I would lean towards Babel and The Good Shepherd.

Well, things look good for Pitt (grrrr....), and if The Last King of Scotland gets Capote comparable reviews, then I do believe Whitaker and the film will get in (and the same goes for Derek Luke if Catch a Fire gets the raves. Whitaker and Luke are in competition with eachother, I believe.). I think Damon will get in, regardless of if The Good Shepherd does.

Of, course, there is bound to be a major contender that isn't on the radar yet, just like Million Dollar Baby and Brokeback Mountain weren't major considerations in early September, and they both scored Best Actor/Best Picture nominations.

Well people on Goldderby and Oscarwatch were talking about Brokeback Mountain like a year in advance, it wasn't (IMO) the surprise by the time we were into September.

If I recall we also knew about Million Dollar Baby at this point in 2004. I dunno... I think we pretty much have all the potential nominees on the table this year.