Well, as of now, I see three more or less major frontrunners for acting categories:

Forest Whitaker for Best Actor
Helen Mirren for Best Actress
Jennifer Hudson for Best Supporting Actress

Thus making polls about those categories is rather futile. But Best Supporting Actor has really been all over the place so far.

These are possible contenders for a nom (and a win), IMO:

Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Brad Pitt (Babel)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Michael Sheen (The Queen)
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland)

I really have hard time seeing anyone out of this field taking it home...

So far, Jackie Earle Haley has the slight advantage as far as critics awards go, but he missed out on a BFCA nom and a GG nom...will enough people have seen his performance?

After him, the field is really wide open. Nicholson and Hounsou (!) scored some nods, while others are still all in consideration.

I think the Oscar winner will be down to Haley and Nicholson...but really, currently it is hard to tell. Any thoughts?

Dreamgirls wins are a big question mark aside from a few categories. If Dreamgirls is a box office success (I think it will do well) I could see Murphy coming into the race very rapidly. Best Supporting categories with this much flexibility can be crazy.

The Departed is my all around pick for BP as this point, so I bet it will get at least one win in the acting field. I'm not as sold on BA as you are, but I think (at this point today) that Jack would probably be the winner.

First off, while Jennifer Hudson may be the frontrunner at this point (solely because she's won the most awards) I would not be predicitng a win for her.

Best Supporting Actor is really going to come down to 3-man race.

1. Jack Nicholson: It's a very big meaty supporting role. He nails it. It's Jack Nicholson

2. Brad Pitt: I think he's gained alot of respect from within the industry and a win here would be more of a ststement or for his body of work thus far rather than for Babel (the role for which I don't think is enough for a win... then again Judi Dench). Another tidbit to remember... he is going to be up for n Oscar with The Departed's Best Picture chances. (could it be another Clooney 2005?)

3. Eddie Murphy: If and only if Dreamgirls is the mainstream success it's looking to be. Haven't seen the film yet, so I can't make final judgments, but I can see them awarding Murphy for a body of work/comeback/deserving for the role combo.

I'm extremely iffy on this one but if I had to pick one, I may go against safe bets and say Eddie Murphy. I'd love to see Jack or Pitt win though!

I think Pitt is the frontrunner in a Clooney-esque fashion for now, he's a big beloved actor/producer, his friends want to award him.

Apart from that, I don't see them giving another Oscar to Nicholson for this role, as IMO he is outacted by Leo, Wahlberg, and Damon, he is a bit cartoony, and I think to give him the Hepburn-tieing Oscar #4 they'll wait for a really brilliant performance, they won't just hand out another Oscar to Jack.

As for Murphy... he's pulled a giant goose-egg on the precursors. Granted he's still in it if it picks up, but for now I have him behind Pitt and Nicholson. Dreamgirls kind of seems like the 5th nominee to me at this point, with Condon being on the outside looking in in terms of BD, so he won't win in a Dream fever sweep like previously thought. I actually don't think Murphy has his nomination locked up, considering he hasn't shown up at all thus far other than the GG nom, a snub is still possible, unfortunatley.

I would love to see Pitt walk away with 2 awards.

I think Shack raises a valid point about Nicholson's chances for winnig. The thing is, the Academy loves him. And I don't think this role is that undeserving to give him the tie for most Acting oscars. They'd be particularly picky if it would be giving him the 5th one. Plus, he's turning 70 next year.

My pick for a while has been Eddie Murphy. Reviews were all raves for him, and it has the comeback angle going for it. However, if enough Academy members see the trailer for Norbit, he's completely screwed.

I'd like to see Mark Wahlberg or Alan Arkin win it. Both were excellent scene stealers.

Eddie Murphy has this going for him...

1. Will be nominated in a film which probalby has a Best Picture nomination
2. Sings
3. Dances
4. Wears Period clothing!
5. Is extremely well known
6. Career comback
7. Is African American (hey... it can help!)
8. Is actually deserving for his role
[spoil]9. Is drug addicted in the film
10. Dies in the film[/spoil]

So yeah... Not saying he will win because Nicholson also [spoil]Is well known, deserving, drug dealing and actually gets shot up![/spoil]

But yeah...

It's either going to be Pitt or Nicholson, but I have to give the edge to Pitt seeing that Jack has three already.

I'd say by percentage...

35% Eddie Murphy
30% Brad Pitt
28% Jack Nicholson
12% Somebody else