I did this while eating pain meds like candy, so I apologize that it's not better.

Awards season has become my favorite movie season of the year, and I hope that I'm not the only one who likes it best! I've done extensive research over the past few days as I gathered all of this stuff together to try to form a bigger picture of what looks like it could make noise during awards season. Like last year, there are a lot of potentially great films coming up, and I'll try to cover as many as I can.

United 93

As of this writing, I think this is easily the best film of the year! Gripping, powerful, emotional, tragic, uplifting, gut wrenching,...just brilliant on every level. It's early release date and weak box office really hurt it's chances of getting much more than a possible screenplay and editing nomination amongst the various awards. The lack of no notable actors really hurts this, because unlike Crash, a film that could roll out big stars like Matt Dillon and Sandra Bullock on the red carpets and in the audiences of these awards ceremonies, giving the film an aura of "Big" and "Important", Flight 93 is left solely to the film's own merits to score nominations. It will most certainly have the critical support needed, but unless the academy and guilds feel a patriotic obligation to support this film, it'll fade into a minorplayer. Crash was also at that status, and it took one Oscar potential failure after the next to open the window for ir. It's doubtful that'll happen two years in a row, and Eastwood's film, De Niro's film, Scorcese's film, Bobby, etc...look a whole lot sexier with their all star casts or all star director/producer/screenwriter. Everything would have to go wrong for other films for Flight 93 to get passed screenplay and editing considerations. I think it deserves all kinds of awards thrown at it, but it's got much working against it.



World Trade Center

I have yet to see this one, but that ok forthis preview, as it's all about potential, not personal opinion. WTC certainly has the higher profile, with Oscar winners and award nominees front and present. It's biggest obstacle is that it's consider "good", but the majority liked United 93 better. It won't have the critical support necessary. It could possibly get some acting attention if there are enough performances that fail to take positions in the coming months, but that's probably it. I haven't heard the score, and it's probably got one that could be shoe horned into the awards.

Little Miss Sunshine

With a heavy DVD campaign, this little gem could become this year's little engine that could. Crash proved last year that Oscar films no longer have to be released at theaters during the fall and winter, although it still looks as though many are slow on the uptake about that. This movie was strong in every aspect, and could very well sneak in there somewhere. I would guess that it has a better chance for Steve Carrell and the screenplay than anything else, but nothing here is out of the running, especially if we have another season of disappointments.

Hollywoodland

It's early September release date doesn't bode well for it's Oscars hopes (as September is usually a dumping ground), but it's very possible it could be a great candidate for a DVD campaign if it's really strong. Planety of award possibilities in the acting categories, with Brody, Hoskins, Lane, and Affleck all looking to be in top form. Hollywood LOVES stories about themself, and the title of the film will get the attention of everybody in the guilds and academy. If the pacing problems are true, this will quickly be out of the race.

All the King's Men

Remember this? It was on everybody's list last year, but it must have sniffed a loss, and moved back an entire year. It's got studs in the acting categories, and some *should* be players this year. Sean Penn, Christian Bale, Kate Winslet (who needs to win already...), Anthony Hopkins, Patricia Clarkson, or Kathy Baker could garner attention. The biggest obstacle in it's way is the remake factor. The original already won awards. Unless there are lots of letdowns, I don't see this getting much beyond an acting nod or two.


Flyboys

This is just a darkhorse that I thought I'd throw in there. It's got a decent release date (though not great) and could surprise. We'll see.

The Last King of Scotland

Another film that we should keep an eye on. Decent enough release date, but under the radar. I don't see much, maybe an acting surprise. Perhaps editing, director, cinematography, Best Actor, but I doubt it'll get anything more than that, although Idi Amin is quite the historical figure, so it could really hit a home run. Even if it does, I think it would have to be EXCELLENT to even get a look.

The Departed

I expect "something" here. It's Marty, who gets a free pass when his stuff isn't up to par (Gangs of New York), and it's the return of the great Jack Nicholson, teamed up with Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, Martin Sheen, Alec Baldwin, and Marky Mark. The director and cast are just too high profile for the academy not to take this seriously, and as long as they don't treat it like a remake, I'd say it's chances are good for a slew of noms, quality permitting.

The Queen

This is interesting, a live action film about Queen Elizabeth and Tony Blair dealing with the death of Princess Diana. It's very possible that some award nominations for the actors could happen, though I don't know enough about this to consider anything else.


Infamous

Another Truman Capote movie. That basically kills any chance of it getting anything unless it's a masterpiece. It's got a nice cast, but it'll probably be off the radar quickly.


Little Children

Kate Winslet and Jennifer Connelly raise the level of anything they are in, and I'll flat out say it right now, Kate Winslett, congratulations on winning Best Actress of 2006. Jennifer Connelly, congratulations on your past win and for your incredible looks. Connelly "could" get a Supporting Actress nod, but with her past win in that category a few years back, she'd have to be extraordinary (which I expect), and she wouldn't win, anyway.

Flags of Our Fathers

Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg, and Paul Haggis make this an early frontrunner on paper. On paper means nothing, and the word frontrunner should never be used to describe a film that nobody's seen a frame of. Those powerhouse names attached bring plenty of weight to this thing's chances, however. The academy is clearly in a euphoric love affair with all of them, and when you add the important historic epic that's being tackled, it would have to be a major disappointment for a Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay nomination not to happen. Chances also could be affected by it's companion film, Red Sun, Black Sand, if it makes a 2006 release. Eastwood is the best director at getting a performance, as judged by the number of noms and wins he's responsible for when doing these serious pieces, so I'd say it's very likely that some actors could rise to the occassion. The biggest obstacle this movie faces is the success that Eastwood, Spielberg, and Haggis have recently had.

Marie Antoinette

Sofia Coppola and her gigantic chompers are back, and this time, she's clearly got a movie premise that's going for it. It will be enough to get considerations for Coppola as a writer and director, and Kirsten as an actress, but anything beyond consideratins will depend entirely on critical reception and box office returns. And even if Kirsten gets a nom, that's as far as it's going. It's Katie's year! Mark it down.

The Prestige

It's Wolverine vrs. Batman, with Christopher Nolan directing. It's also a period piece. This is a hard call. I don't see much beyond Costume Design, unless it's a big surprise in quality, which is always possible where Nolan and the actors are concerned. It definitely doesn't feel like Best Picture material, though.


Running with Scissors

With a cast featuring Annette Bening, Gwyneth Paltrow, Jill Clayburgh, Brian Cox, Joseph Fiennes, Evan Rachel Wood, and Alec Baldwin, it's got a good chance of getting reconition for somebody. It appears to combine quirky with adult themes, so while I don't see it as a serious competitor for the major awards, acting and screenplay noms could happen if the quality is there.

Babel

Brad Pitt is going to have his year sometime soon, but I think his public frolicking at the expense of the well liked Jennifer Aniston will piss some people off. Cate Blanchett just won, and unless this is a stellar film, I really don't see Pitt getting any love. (good!)

Lucky You

I'm only listing this because it's Curtis Hanson, and he's got actors like Eric Bana and Drew Barrymore, who are talented and have been paying their dues in recent years. Robert Duvall is always good, too. This is definitely a dark horse.

Catch a Fire

Focus Feature wants revenge! They could get it with this film directed by Phillip Noyce. Terrorism in South Africa is bound to grab attention as much as Syriana or The Constant Gardener did, so if it's reception is even better, this could go further if a big push is put behind it.

Volver

Apparently getting strong reviews in Spain (?), and this could be Penelope Cruz's Frida. I don't see the box office or anything else helping to get it much more than an actress nom for Penelope, but again, it's Katie's year, regardless of who is nominated.

A Good Year

The dreaded Crowe teams up with Ridley Scott in a November release, so unless it sucks, it'll at least get a look. Crowe's conduct may have been his undoing in the Oscar circles, especially since he's already been given more than enough love.

Casino Royale

This has no chance for anything, but it comes out on November 17th (my birthday!), and I humbly request that you all go see it.

Candy

This looks like the type of pretentious period piece gobbledygook that the academy just loves, and it could get some attention for Heath Ledger or Geofrey Rush. I wouldn't expect this to be a major contender, but not much is really known right now.

The Fountain

Hugh Jackman in yet another period piece, as he's obviously trying to make a mark in serious acting circles. He's got a better shot here than in the Prestige, and this film also has a real shot at something, if the quality is present. Having Rachel Weisz in the movie only enhances it's visibility, though I don't expect her to get a nomination after just winning the Oscar last year. No major noms, anyway. This *could* be Jackman's breakthrough. If this isn't, some upcoming musical will be.

Bobby

MAJOR player, and something I would call the closest thing to a lock on paper that wasn't directed by Clint Eastwood. If Estevez provides the filmmaking chops, the incredible cast will take care of the rest. America, for God knows what reason, has a love affair with the Kennedy family, so unless this isn't very good, I expect nominations all season, and if it IS good, it could be the film to beat.

Bug

Ashley Judd does her impression of Charlize, though doesn't de-glamorize herself to near the extent, but even though this is director by legendary Exorcist director William Friedkin, I doubt this will get the critical reception to be a factor, even for Judd.

Apocalypto

How many Jewish people are going to boycott anything with Mel Gibson attached? I think Mel has a lot to make up for, and I wouldn't vote for anything of his, either, until he earned some forgiveness.

The Good German

This one has been on my radar for a long time. Remember me? I'm the only George Clooney supporter this forum had when people were trying to convince me that Jamie Fox was somehow more powerful in Hollywood, and when people were trying to convince me that Paul Giamatti was going to win over Clooney at the Oscars last year, no matter how much stronger my argument was. Now, of course, Clooney has legions of fans 'round these here parts. He's Warner Brothers' new golden boy, and anything he's attached to, you can bet WB is going to put some campaign muscle behind it if it's awards-ish. Clooney in another B&W movie? Surrounded by quality actors and Steven Soderbergh as director? Yeah, this will have to be a major letdown not to go far this season.

The Holiday

Nancy Travers follows up Something's Gotta Give with this film, featuring Katie (this year's winner Best Actress for something), along with Jude Law and Cameron Diaz. Probably not much here in the way of awards, aside from acting possibilities, as they are all capable. Screenplay is also a possibility, but it would have to be amazing. This loses points for casting the annoying Jack Black, who's 15 minutes can't be up soon enough.


Breaking and Entering

Robin Wright Penn and Jude Law have the best shots here, but writer/director Anthony Minghella (the English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Cold Mountain) can't be counted out.

The Blood Diamond

This gets a mention because of the release date, Leo, and Jennifer Connelly, but not much else that I can see.

The Pursuit of Happyness

This looks kinda interesting from an awards standpoint, although I personally have no interest in Will Smith when he's not doing his normal schtick. It could be another nomination for him, as his career progresses toward Tom Hanks-like unlimitedness. Watch out for Thandie Newton, too, who might be "owed" something for her Crash snub last year.

The Good Shepherd

This is another film that has been high on my radar for ages now, mostly due to the return of the great Joe Pesci, who hasn't done anything since he posed for the group picture at the end of Lethal Weapon 4 in 1998. Yes, it's been THAT long. He is missed. He better get a nomination just to remind him of how loved and missed he is. Besides the surprising similar name to The Good German, which will, no doubt, confuse the stupid, it also features Alec Baldwin and Matt Damon, who appear in the other "Good" film, as well. This Robert De Niro directed film is sure to get some notice, as it stars De Niro, Joe Pesci, Alec Baldwin, Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie, and Billy Crudup, which doesn't appear to be a large part. I expect this to be a MAJOR contender, and a battle of the "Good" films would make for interesting headlines.

The Painted Veil

This has an interesting theatrical rollout, and Naomi Watts is always a sure bet for a good performance, as is Edward Norton. Plus, this features Diana Rigg as Mother Superior! How cool is that? I kinda expect a nomination for Watts, but once again, it's Katie's year. Watts will win sometime, but it's Katie's year.

Notes on a Scandal

Ok, here's another Cate Blanchett possible, and this is actually quite topical, as it has cate playing a teacher who has an affair with an underage student. The best thing this has going for it is the uber sexy Judi Dench is in it! TWO MOVIES WITH THE DENCHER IN ONE YEAR!!! (you shouldn't have to guess what the other is...) I love me some Judi Dench, whether she's wearing a bride of Frankenstein wig or her natural look.

Dreamgirls

I know I'll be virtually slapped for this, but it'll take a lot more than "it's a musical" for me to believe this has a shot in hell. I say that as somebody who looks forward to it, but Musicals disappoint more than anything else. I'd love to see Eddie Murphy get a much deserved career award for this. I think that's the best possibility here, unless it defies the odds. (sorry, guys)


Letters from Iwo Jima

That's apparently what Eastwwod's companion film is being called now instead of Red Sun, Black Sand. It's not known at this time if this will make a 2006 release, but if it does, it significantly ups Eastwood's chances of getting a Best Picture and Best Director nomination, unless it's a major dud. This is a huge undertaking, which is something that the academy rewarded Peter Jackson for, so Eastwood is very likely to get a nomination for the effort unless BOTH films suck.

I agree with much of the info presented but I gotta say...

as you mentioned for WTC, it's all about potential, not personal opinion. Yet you completely dismiss Dreamgirls based on PERSONAL OPINION.

You say musicals disappoint more than anything else.

Ok

Rent, Phantom, and Producers all struck out.

But

Moulin Rouge - BP nomination
Chicago - BP win

Lucky You was quietly shipped off to boarding school (2007) in the middle of the night last week. He must be a very, very bad boy.

Underestimate Dreamgirls at your own peril.

Rent= Chris Columbus
Phantom= Joel Schumacher
Producers= Susan Stroman
Dreamgirls= Bill Condon

One of these is not like the others.

^

I like that game!!!

Haha... nice yoshue!

I have yet to really get into any type of Oscar mode. I'm so out of it with movies this year.

My best of the year would include
-Little Miss Sunshine
-United 93
-Thank You for Smoking
(Devil Wears Prada )

In all fairness, I did say this was lame and that I was doped up when I wrote it, as my embarrassing spelling mistakes will attest to, but I couldn't resist a little poke at you and Libs.

Honestly, my personal opinion is that I'm really looking forward to it. I was just going by statistics. Moulin Rouge and Chicago have taken care of the Musical for the foreseeable future, I believe. Most musicals don't resonate with the academy, because they are so hard to pull off. In the last 10 years, most have not seen any Oscar love. Even Woody Allen struck out with Everyone Says I Love You. He did get a Golden Globe nomination, but Oscar wasn't interested. I believe that Moulin Rouge and Chicago were only a mini revival in the genre, and not something that would make Musicals a perennial awards season powerhouse. I don't have anything against Dreamgirls, though, and wish it much success, both at the box office and during awards season.

Jude Law is in All the Kings Men not Christian Bale

I like your casting more though.

haha...I'm telling you, it was the Vicodin. I will go and edit all of the spelling mistakes and Lucky You and Christian Bale/Jude Law when I get a chance. I needed an editer two ficks mi mustakes.

I actually spelled "plenty" as "planety", so that should tell you where my head was at.

I gotta agree with Maverikk on Dreamgirls, especially after that recent spot.

Well I definitley am not feeling Condon at all, he reminds me of James Mangold to be honest. At this point, I see the token BP nom without BD. I'm also in the "Fuck that movie" camp though, so I can understandably be wrong. Seriously, even it if it is pretty good, another breezy musical winning so soon after Chicago(another travesty) would make me very very sad.

It's from the Sesame Street! One of my favorite parts...


I don't think we'll see any pre-summer nominee this year... United 93 has much better reviews than Crash, yes, but its buzz has died now, I think.. and even with a severe bump from the critics' top 10s at the end of the year, I just don't see it as a BP nominee - right now, at least...

I heard fantastic things about The Last Kiss from a colleague who has seen it. Giving Haggis history with the Academy I would count it as an outside shot at least for screenplay

Enough with you already Zing.

Splaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

What's that?

The sound of KJ'ers hurling themselves off the tops of buildings as AI's Jennifer Hudson collects an Academy Award.

Heh

That's it? I spend hours in agony trying to think and type at the same time, and all you can contribute is a hiccup?

I read something about Infamous and it could just be spin. The article said Tobey Jones was just as brilliant as PSH in the Capote role.

Now wouldn't that be something. A lead actor nomination following PSH's win in the same role last year.

Imagine if he won, too.

Well Infamous debuted at Venice today, so some reviews should be popping up shortly.

Didn't have the time to read this in full yet, just overlooked some titles, so short comments:

I agree on Dreamgirls. This looks bad to me. I think it is among the frontrunners for whatever reason because apparently those who see stuff from it love it, but to me it looks terrible and I actually liked Chicago a lot.

Flyboys - Nah. Just nah. Heh

Marie Antoinette is OUT. It got slammed in Cannes like no other film other than Southland Tales. It got boo'ed at the screening. It was released in France to very mediocre reviews. This ain't getting anywhere.

Infamous received a mixed review from Variety. On Toby Jones:



On the rest:







I don't think this will be a player. It is destined to draw comparison with Capote, and given how high the praise Hoffman received (deservingly so) and the film itself, Infamous will suffer, like WTC vs. United 93, and at least WTC has something to distinguish itself (better box office, more heart-warming, etc.)

Nice thread.

Infamous won't be a factor because it's Capote again.

Underestimate Dreamgirls at your own peril (just repeating!)

Yeah, Infamous will not be a player in the awards this year. It looks like Sandra Bullock is actually getting really good reviews as Harper Lee, but I doubt she would show up as a contender either considering Keener was nominated for what looked like virtually the exact same performance.

I think Sandra Bullock is going to get something, soon. Maybe not for Infamous, but she was decent in Crash, and if she has a similar role but a larger part, I think she could nail it.

Nice list, Mav. Put me down on the "Dreamgirls isn't going anywhere" list as of right now. The clip was not good.

Thank you, Chris.

I agree about Sandra Bullock. I think she's another that has made her share of friends, and they are waiting for the right performance, and it could happen this year for a nom. (not the win, though, it's Katie's year!) I think Sandra Bullock's presence in Crash was a big reason it won. Crash trotted her out for all the premieres and red carpet events. She's a super star of high visibility, and the biggest problem that faces United 93 from being this year's Crash, is that it's an unglamourous pick. You could trot out Sandra Bullock and Matt Dillon at the Globes and Oscars, but NOTHING for United 93. Add that to the box office and release date, and we'd have one heck of a disappointing season if it makes it very far.