I know dolce brought this up already, and the word seems to be on a lot of lips lately, so let this be the thread declaring it.

I think there's an over 50% chance that Scorsece will win this year, and that's probably undercutting it. He's due, and there's noone else to take it from him, as the award won't be going to Eastwood or Condon. Yes, he's the outright frontrunner, IMO.

If the director trophy goes to him, and people are so passionate about this movie, is it so far off of a possibility just to make it his year outright? Eastwood just won, Dreamgirls has it's reasons why not, Babel just had a similar movie winning last year... This will have the box-office, the star rollout, and it'll be a return to a big audience movie after the message Oscars of 05. Gangster flick or not, I think the odds are overwhelmingly lining up in it's favor.

So yes, I'm saying it, this is The Departed's year. Woot.

For the love of all that is holy, can you please explain the reasons why Dreamgirls won't win.

Because beyonce sux.

you forgot to add you hate black people and films about black people don't win BP.

At least someone needs to say something like "musicals don't win" so I can provide facts and figures to disprove that. But all this empty commentary is getting out of control this year.

It's not gonna win because George Bush doesnt care about black people.

Dreamgirls wont win because films that feature reality show rejects never win. It is proven - ie. The Animal (2001)!!!!

I think people don't think Dreamgirls will win because they don't want to see it, as if that's a reason The Academy will apparently listen to them.

I mean, I must not be the only one who's noticed that everyone who is adamant about Dreamgirls not winning is also adamant about how terrible they think the movie looks.

^
pretty much.

I mean, every early review along with the pre release buzz has been stellar, certainly on par with The Departed and past nominees/winners. Yet nearly every single award season follower here has pretty much dismissed the film and turned a deaf ear to it.

Sorry for highjacking your thread Shack but your comment "Dreamgirls has it's reasons why not" didn't sit well. Again, if you want to list reasons and debate, that's one thing. We can talk about Condon's track record and studio backing, and how many noms are possible...

The same could be said for the people thinking it will win also calling it one of their most anticipated of the year. I'll admit, I have no basis to back up my "Dreamgirls won't win" (which it won't, really) propoganda, but this works both ways.

The Departed > Dreamgirls

Zing, it's not a two way street in this situation.

I'm at least using early reviews, press reaction to footage packages, and charts like gurus of gold to back up my argument.

The Departed with NOT be nominated for Best Picture.

In the sense that I don't have support (other than the fact that the trailer screams non-Oscar, IMO...), you're right, it's not a two-way street. But I think there's a little bit of biased for the supporters too.

well that's a no-brainer

I'm biased for many films and performances this year. We tend not to talk about films we dont like.

I at least didnt heap on the trash talking until I saw Crash and when it became a player.

And the Dreamgirls trailer was shite. Even I admitted that.

I know my Dreamgirls comment wasn't backed up, but I was *hoping* that argument wouldn't get dragged into this.

My basis on it is a combination of:

a) Blind guessing.

b) The cast is kind of odd. I'm sorry but you can't really spin Beyonce, 7th place on AI, diva lately Jamie Foxx, and Eddie Murphy into any kind of stellar lineup. It isn't as strong as Gere + Zellwegger + etc. for Chicago.

c) It doesn't have any director weight. Condon has less auteur capabilities than Rob Marshall, on paper I put him in the same camp as James Mangold. I'm not entirely convinced yet that Dreamgirls will get a BD, I could easily see it being the token BP nom without it, the movie fits the mold, though for now I'll say he has a shot.

d) We get that it'll be a fun audience pleasing movie, but will it be anything more? It rocked the screenings, I bet there was lots of clapping and enjoyment, but I'm not sure if it'll be anything worthy of big time acclaim.

e) I'm not sure if a light Supremes-esque movie will have the plot depth to win. Granted it could and all, but I'll have to see evidence on paper first. At least in Chicago you had the basis around a murder plot, while Dreamgirls is mostly a portrait of the girls? It won't be made in any masterful way, the acting may be good but nowhere near epic, it won't carry any messages, the characters won't be special portraits, the performances will be mostly on a stage if I know correctly, what does it have to sit on to make it Best Picture efficiando? There's a good chance I'm wrong, but I'll wait before calling it as a frontrunner.

^

What Shack said, plus it looks like shit.

Thanks

Those points aren't the type that can be argued (a,c,d are still personal opinion) But in regards to (e), though it doesnt revolve around murder, Dreamgirls is still dark and dramatic at times.

from wikipedia

The story begins in 1962, when The Dreamettes, a hopeful black girl group from Chicago, enter a talent competition at the Apollo Theater in NY. The three girls -- full-figured lead singer Effie White and her groupmates and best friends, Deena Jones and Lorrell Robinson, -- meet Curtis Taylor, Jr., a shady car salesman who becomes their manager. Curtis convinces James "Thunder" Early, a popular R&B star, and his manager, Marty, to take the Dreamettes on as his backup singers after he has been abandoned by his original back up. Curtis renames them The Dreams and begins, with the help of Effie's songwriter brother C.C., to push them into the mainstream, falling in love with Effie in the process. Conflict arises between Marty and Curtis, when he (Curtis) moves in on his (Marty's) turf: Jimmy Early. Marty eventually quits being Early's manager and Curtis takes over, more power-driven than ever.

By the mid-1960s, Curtis decides to make the thinner Deena the lead singer of the Dreams, in order to give their act more pop appeal. Effie is resentful for being pushed out of the spotlight, but her anger is doubled when Curtis' affections also shift to Deena. By the late-1960s, Effie has sunken into a depression, and Curtis replaces her with Michelle Morris, although Effie is pregnant with Curtis' child, a fact not realized until Act 2.

With Morris, the Dreams -- now renamed "Deena Jones & the Dreams" -- go on to record several successful pop hits, while Effie struggles to establish a solo career on her own. By the early 1970s, Deena wants to quit the act and become an actress, and Lorrell is involved in a difficult relationship with James Early. Effie, however, finally finds the success and fame she wants, undeterred by Curtis' underhanded attempts to suppress the release of her hit single "One Night Only" by having the Dreams record and release it. (Note: The hit, written by her brother C.C., was rearranged by Curtis. C.C., having finally had enough of Curtis' undermining, takes the song to Effie to record it " The way it should be.") After a confrontation with Effie, C.C., and Marty (James Thunder Early's old manager) Deena and Lorrell learn of Curtis's true nature and decide to disband the Dreams. The group makes their farewell appearance, during which they reunite with Effie, in 1972, resulting in a happy ending for all.

Here's the thing, if Flags, Departed, Dreamgirls all get equally or close to the same rave reviews which one seems like the odd man out?

The one about patriotism, the other a popular Broadway musical, or the irish mafia crime/gangster flick?

The statment about Marty owed an Oscar has been going on for YEARS, it still hasnt happened, even when he tried to make oscar bait films like Aviator. I find it hard to belive he'll finally get it for a film like this, though he does have a MUCH better chance at getting director then the film has at picture ( Marty - 20%, Departed - 5% )

IMO it really is very possible that we see a split and Marty gets director and Flags or Dreamgirls gets picture, but personally I REALLY dont wanna see that happen, to me it just wouldnt have close to the same impact as Marty just sweeping and getting both, but at the sametime I dont know if the Academy would honor him for making a good film with a huge all star cast like that.

out of the three, I think Departed has the only chance to take both BD and BP.

If Marty takes BD, and Flags and Dreamgirls match one another in quality, I'm not sure who wins. It's hard to overlook the feat that is Flags. And if Dreamgirls leads the group in nominations as I expect it will, it too is a beast.

Pretty exciting race for sure.

Not all of the people who don't see it going anywhere, as I'm looking forward to it. BIG Eddie Murphy fan here! I want nothing more than him to take home an Oscar. He's one of the most all around talented people who ever lived. An Oscar would be very fitting, and he could be fighting it out with Nicholson. Dreamgirls has a lot working against it. Unfair expectations were created.
Musicals are extremely hard to pull off. One film just won a few years ago after two years in a row saw a nomination for the genre. Musicals died after that. If it gets the reviews, it's in. I don't think it will, but that doesn't mean I don't think it will be great. I love plenty of movies that critics don't give 8.5 ratings to with 90% fresh. I'm trying to look at it with an objective perspective.

As far as the topic goes, as I said awhile back, I think it's Marty's year. We'll see about the film, but it's Marty's year. There is NO WAY he doesn't get a nomination for a strong quality flick with a strong cast of STARS who are sure to be in the running for nominations. It's just not going to happen. Could be a split year or Departed BP/Scorcese BD result.

I don't want to see it that much, but I think Dreamgirls has been getting a lot of blind hate around here, at least as far as awards go.

Besides guys, there's still The Prestige and Children of Men.

well, just because you dont like musicals or you think it looks like crap doesnt mean its not going to win. and the departed wont win

If The Departed gets 90% ot above at RT, it will win.

If The Departed gets 90% ot above at RT, it will have a 50/50 shot at getting nommed, depending on whether or not the B.O. is great.

King Kong people. King Kong. . .

The King Kong comparison isn't even close.

You're talking about a film about a giant monkey that was based on a classic and beloved film vrs. a crime drama (and I have no idea where the notion came from that such films aren't academy films...) that really isn't a remake at all, despite being adapted from Infernal Affairs.

Hm, you can argue a lot of things in The Departed's support that I will agree with (like the fact that almost none has seen Infernal Affairs in the US anyway), but don't say it is not a remake at all until you at least see the original. I saw tons of TV spots, read the reviews (indlucing the ones with spoilers) and it IS a remake, there is no other way of calling it (I did see Infernal Affairs). Not that it is hurting the movie, but I just don't like seeing that someone thinks it is not one. Not only are several crucial scenes taken out of the original 1:1, it also partially uses the same kind of an ending.