I've never felt so little emotion towards a group of films. The Crash win has really altered my perception of these awards. I'm kind of searching for the fun.

Anyway, my gut feeling is below... let me know what you think and what you guys see coming.

Here is my picks, keep in mind that as of this time, the only picture released that even has a slight shot in hell of being nominated is United 93.

Dreamworks
Well it looks like Flags of Our Fathers is going to run on the Dreamworks label, which puts it square in the sights of Dreamgirls. So it's going to be an ultimate battle for a nomination between these two, and I'm pretty confident that one will be nominated. Flags looks pretty great on paper, but I'm guessing the actor support and the Clint Eastwood issue will work against Flags of our Fathers to an extent. Perfume could show up in technicals like costumes.

What will Warner Bros. choose to run this year. First cut out all the Warner Independent pictures... sorry The Science of Sleep, The Painted Viel... you open too early and there are so many bigger fish this year.

The Blood Diamond? Leo DiCaprio, 10,000 other people and Ed Zwick directing? Topical?

The Good German. Soderbergh... Cate Blanchett, Clooney... this is the year of freaking Cate Blanchett I'll tell you. Drama in post-war Berlin...

Oh yeah, and The Departed.

Paramount has Babel... that's all they need, but they won't be able to handle it probably. We'll really have to see.

Sony
All the Kings Men, Running with Scissors, The Holiday may make waves with acting and writing, but nothing else. Marie Antoinette really is the big "indie" (it's not an indie at all but... small film... i guess) hope here I would imagine because Volver may be strong but like most Pedro films will probably go nowhere, and Stranger than Fiction is to weird to rely on.

But the guess here is The Pursuit of Happyness which is like perfect down to a T. This will get Will Smith another shot at an Oscar... and I think it's Sony's best chance at grabbing that audience out there who enjoys Jerry Macguire-like cheesy melodrama.

Universal has United 93 of course, which could end up being one of the critical darlings this year. Since the critical reception of United 93 is a known quantity we just have to wonder if it is going to make big enough noise with the critic award shows this year. United 93 (I believe) could win the whole thing and it could not be nominated for anything just as easily. It depends on how the Academy and the rest treat it.

Don't see anything happening with Idlewild or Miami Vice. The Black Dahlia... maybe for acting... The Children of Men... too sci-fi... the real threat to United 93 is The Good Shepherd.

Disney/Miramax
The Queen... obviously an English drama with Helen Miren... do not forget the support for the very British films from time to time. Stephen Frears definately doesn't hurt. They have other films but none as obviously strong. I mean... Apocalypto?

MGM has Bobby and Rocky VI. Doesn't look like nominations to me.

20th Century Fox/Searchlight.
The History Boys (zzzzzzz), Notes on a Scandal (acting nominations?), high hopes for Little Miss Sunshine.. .too early though. Oh yeah among other things there is that "A Good Year" thing with Ridley Scott/Russell Crowe.


Predictions for late June (no guts no glory!!!!):
[s]A Good Year
Dreamgirls
The Departed
The Pursuit of Happyness
United 93[/s]

Okay try this:

A Good Year
Dreamgirls (backup: Flags of our Fathers)
The Departed (backup: The Good German)
The Good Shepherd (backup: United 93)
Marie-Antoinette

BLAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I have no idea, really. Dreamgirls seems like the only 100% given for a Best Picture nomination to me, but that could also change.

Everything that has come out so far will not be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar...

This year may challenge last year as worst picks ever...

How can you possibly tell that in June?

10 minutes after I wrote this awful piece I'm already changing my mind. Will have to rethink it.

I said may...



Oh, and so far nothing, imo, will impress the academy.

I know your sig says "Loose Change" and I don't want to debate the film here beyond it's chances, but don't you think that the way United 93 has tracked with indicators (critics, hype, agenda, etc.) at least puts it in a position to be strongly considered?

Dreamgirls over Flags? You make baby jesus cry. Nothing wrong with Dreamgirls cast huh ?

I don't see both making it in. In the cast department I would pick Dreamgirls any time, because Foxx alone is a bigger star than any of the leads in Flags. Neither film will score a best Actor nod (the win at this point seems to be going to Pitt, Damon or DiCaprio in my view). Dreamgirls might have a chance at getting a few more supporting nods.

I choose Dreamgirls over Flags because...

1. It's more than likely to me both won't be nominated together.
2. It had a good (if brief) reception at Cannes, and is sure to be the glitzier (read: Golden Globes! Parties!) of the two.
3. It's release date (Christmas) is much, much, much better than Flags of Our Father's Oct 20th release date.
4. It's a biopic. Sorta.
5. It will probably win Musical/Comedy at the Globes this year.
6. Condon can be considered "kind of" overlooked.
7. The World War II thing has been done a few more times.
8. Clint Eastwood, Paul Haggis and the lot JUST won (I'm using the no-Peter Jackson argument).
9. Dreamgirls will appeal to a minority audience almost automatically, and there is significant if circumstantial evidence over the last few years that black actors and actresses, producers, etc. will rally behind a movie like this if it is good enough to do so (Crash, Ray).

and...

10. Almost ALWAYS, even last year in it's weird haze, a movie released within about 7 days of Christmas is nominated.

The Academy doesn't like to take risks... Last year they took a leap... this year they'll ease up... United 93 is still too "taboo"...

I guess...

For a nomination though? There are very many "risky" nominated films.

Million Dollar Baby had tough subject matter, The Lord of the Rings movies were considered fantasy, The Hours was about lesbians who are emo, Moulin Rouge! was just weird, Gangs of New York was considered ultra-violent...

Not saying it will happen... just that in the first half of the year it's the only thing that's really still alive that has been released. Like I said, The Good Shepherd is in a position to defeat it, and there's no doubt Universal will play both cards. Universal will try very, very, very, very hard to play the early critical buzz on United 93, and more than likely it will pop up due to some critic award at some point.

A few thoughts ...

1. It's more than likely to me both won't be nominated together.

Well it's nice that you think that. Whether Paramount and the Academy do remains to be seen,

2. It had a good (if brief) reception at Cannes, and is sure to be the glitzier (read: Golden Globes! Parties!) of the two.

With the likes of Ryan Philippe, Jesse Bradford, Adam Beach, Jamie Bell etc, etc, Flags has a superb ensemble cast of hot young actors. There'll be plenty of publicity generated in the media for this and the fact that they're playing the heroes of a famous WW2 victory only adds to the heat - there'll be in everything from tabloid newspapers to GQ type mags and of course those parties you mention. The one good point you make here is the enthusiastic reception the Dreamgirls reel had at Cannes. That's a definite, undeniable plus factor and of course not a single frame of footage has yet been seen of Flags of Our Fathers. But I don't think that's enough to put Dreamgirls out in front. for me they are both solid bets for nominations.

3. It's release date (Christmas) is much, much, much better than Flags of Our Father's Oct 20th release date.

You appear to be going on the principle that the nearer to the end of the eligibility period a film is released the greater its chance of being nominated. I'm not even going to mention Crash! And October 20th is hardly that early.

4. It's a biopic. Sorta.

Well it isn't. It's a work of fiction. But even if it was a biopic (like Ray!) what's your point?

5. It will probably win Musical/Comedy at the Globes this year.

So? The Academy won't automatically vote the way the Globes do. The Academy despise the Golden Globes.

6. Condon can be considered "kind of" overlooked.

By whom?

7. The World War II thing has been done a few more times.

When was the last time a WW2 pic won Best Picture? Exactly. Which front runner was unexpectedly, shockingly defeated in 1998? Which director of said film is producing Flags of Our Fathers, thereby offering the Academy a chance to make up for that loss? Clue: he's one of the directors who also lost out last year.

8. Clint Eastwood, Paul Haggis and the lot JUST won (I'm using the no-Peter Jackson argument).

The Academy will reward what they think is the best movie not 'He won two years ago so he's excluded for the next 10!'

9. Dreamgirls will appeal to a minority audience almost automatically, and there is significant if circumstantial evidence over the last few years that black actors and actresses, producers, etc. will rally behind a movie like this if it is good enough to do so (Crash, Ray).

All things being equal if it comes to a choice between a 'black' movie and a story honouring the soldiers who fought at Iwo Jima the Academy's taste will likely mean the latter will stomp the former into the dust.

10. Almost ALWAYS, even last year in it's weird haze, a movie released within about 7 days of Christmas is nominated.

You mean like Red Sun, Black Sand?

Did they give the Oscar to Leni Riefenstahl for Triumph of the Will?

Propoganda has it own rewards, it doesn't need external recognition, unless of course it serves to amplify it's manipulative value...

Way too early and the year has been way too weak so far, so I'll only predict Best Picture nominees:

Flags of Our Fathers
United 93
The Departed
Dreamgirls
A Good Year

For some reason, I am pretty positive that Marie-Antoinette won't be nominated and might rather end up as this year's Memoirs of a Geisha.

Oh yay, a snarky reply by a Flags fangirl.


It is isn't it?


Well that's why it's "my" view, and that's why it's a prediction after all.


Ryan Philippee, Jesse Bradford, Jamie Bell and Adam Beach are "hot young actors"? Please.


Both have a good shot. The main thing going against each other is there is very rarely a studio overlap. That's one even about last year. In my opinion... the studio production issue is a big deal and is often overlooked in predictions. You could easily put 3 or 4 Warner films in contention but it just doesn't happen that way. When I put Dreamgirls vs. Flags on the same table together, against each other, one has to go.


Wait wait wait... I'm talking about nominations. NOT WINS. Munich fit the time frame. In the last 10ish years, only in 1999 did this principal not apply.


The Globes have been a good indicator over the years. One year of strangeness doesn't overcome years of association.


By having super strong showings with his previous films in previous situations, especially Kinsey.


Again, we are not talking about winners. We're talking about nominations. When was the last time a WW2 pic was nominated for Best Picture... The Pianist.


Do you know this for certain? No. Do I no for certain? No, but I wasn't claiming ultimate knowledge of the situation. I take it you disagree.


I diagree. Especially these days. That's like the "Munich will win Best Picture because everyone is a Jew in Hollywood" argument. And this didn't help Saving Private Ryan.


Red Sun, Black Sand makes Flags of Our Fathers weaker. Unfortunately. Warner/Dream won't run both of them at the same speed, they'll split the vote and the chances of Eastwood getting nominated for either will diminish. So either...

1. Red Sun, Black Sand is the real competitor and Flags is not in a good position (which is very plausible but it has some issues theoretically).
2. They'll virtually ignore Red Sun, push it as more of a limited film, and focus the publicity on Flags primarily.

I still think Dreamgirls is a major threat either way, and at this point, cannot see them both being nominated.

No.

Andaroo, your splitting of the posting makes it unbearable to me to read it

In any case, though, seriously...people might say anything in defense of Flags, but certainly they should not mention its cast. Jesse Bradford, Paul Walker, Adam Beach, Ryan Philippe...yeah, that surely sounds like an Oscar-winning cast.

And a typically ignorant response by a twat named andaroo. What a surprise.



Take it from me - you're not missing much.



This whining about the cast makes absolutely no sense. The film is no more hurt by its cast than Brokeback Mountain was hurt by the casting of Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhall. It's a superb ensemble of young actors and given Eastwood's experience in directing actors and the casting nous of the late Phylis Huffman there's just no reason to think this is a problem.

You're denying that? Jamie Bell, to take just one example, is not a 'hot young actor'? Hilarious. You're crazy.



I'm sure that in your world you're talking perfect sense. In the real world you're talking utter nonsense. When they do both get pushed for nominations I'll await your excuse with interest.



Yeah, and so was I. Or did you miss the bit where I said ' You appear to be going on the principle that the nearer to the end of the eligibility period a film is released the greater its chance of being nominated '?



I'll say it again; the Academy despise the GG. The GG are not an indicator of anything and when their picks match the Academy's that is more by accident than design.



Not a significant factor. As ever it's the quality of the movie that counts most.



Do you seriously believe, even for a second, that the Academy - all 6, 000 of them, sit there plotting in a Machiavellian manner about who to award on the basis of how recently they won? I mean do you seriously fucking believe that?!! You do, don't you? Hi-frickin'-larious. With a non-understanding of the Academy like yours you surely must post on Oscarwatch.



I said 'All things being equal'! Learn to read. And in any case the black angle is unlikely to count because the Academy did their multi-culti racial harmony bit last year with Crash.



Actually i was joking about Red Sun, Black Sand because I know for a fact it won't be released this year. It'll likely come out in January after the nomination period when it can boost the presence of Flags but not actually steal votes from it.



Well that's where you're wrong. The only way you'd have an argument is if both films were on the same subject but Dreamgirls and Flags are so different in style and content that it's simply not an issue. Paramount - or rather, Dreamworks - will push both of them, indeed have already positioned both as their release dates show. It's June now so you've got about six months in which to admit you were wrong. Take my advice, make the most of it.

The right script can make mediocre actors go beyond their norm.

But these aren't mediocre actors. They're promising actors who until now have been trapped with (mostly) unrewarding roles in lousy movies. To ressurect the BBM analogy, both Ledger and Gyllenhal made some some lousy movies/performances which led some observers to scoff at their casting in BBM. Yet given a good script/director and they surprised everyone. Flags is unlikely to be any different in that regard.

Something will come out of left field. We weren't anticipating Brokeback at this point, were we? Capote? Were they even on the radar this early?

I'm hoping for that quiet masterpiece that stands a chance....

I'll say:
Flags of Our Fathers
United 93
The Departed
The Pursuit of Happiness
A Good Year

Honestly, the "pre-determined" batch is looking kind of ghey to me at this point.

The reason I don't have Dreamgirls getting a nomination, is that I don't see Dreamworks getting 3 slots. I know it's being seen as a big contender, and the responses have been great so far, but IMO it'll have things working against it. First of all, no big director. Second of all, if it works out that only 2 Dreamworks films make it, I think it'll just grab the short stick against the more hyped contenders.

Flags will get a nom, as they won't deny Eastwood, no matter what the cast is. Also, it's not like the cast is that damaging, Paul Walker just came off two semi-respectable roles with Eight Below and Running Scared, and Ryan Phillippe was in Crash and is also Reese Witherspoon's husband. The Clint love overshadows all of that.

For The Departed, it's the same thing. Scorsese's slump and name pretty much locks up everyone's ballot. Also, the cast for it is huge, Jack Nicholson and Matt Damon are much more prone to Oscar than Beyonce and Eddie Murphy. The early reviews aren't fantastic, but I think it will pull through.

A Good Year... Ridley Scott is due, and every Russell Crowe movie is always a contender. It won't be released early in the year like Cinderella Man, and it won't have crappy Ron Howard at the helm. The plot doesn't excite me that much, but it'll probably get in.

United 93 and The Pursuit of Happiness, honestly I expect surprises to take their spots. But I had to say something, so why not. At least one Capote-like indie will get a place at the show though.

Careful there limey... while your post was snarky (hard to deny that) you are starting to venture into the realm of personal attack. I'm not the one to go running to the mods, but surely you can keep it civil...


That's the funniest thing you've posted.

Not the fact that I could be wrong... the fact that you have the knowledge with disproves it.

You've done nothing here but make definitive statements about things you know nothing about and add nothing to this discussion other than the fact that you disagree with what I'm saying. Do you have any other thoughts on *anything* else you'd like to share with the class?

Clearly, since you know what's going to happen you can save us all the time, in what is supposed to be a fun discussion thread and tell us what's going to happen so we can pick apart your "logic".


Many people were actually. Capote was more left field. Crash had been mentioned when it was released but discounted by most.


But see, to many, to many on this board I've talked to, they are mediocre (or worse) actors. This is all opinion that you are desperately trying to turn into fact. I have no problem with the disagreement here, I just do NOT agree with you no matter how much you flail around trying to disprove my opinion on their acting abilities.

The truth is that at this time, they are not young hearththrobs who are on the cover of Tiger Beat. The attention is not really on them (although I can't speak for Bell at this time because he's off my radar). You obviously believe this will change by October. I do not see it happening.


Ledger had also done Monster's Ball (which he was amazing in) and many people love Jake from his performance in Darko.


Your leap of faith is here. Just because Brokeback Mountain turned in a few fantastic performances, it does not follow that the same is going to be for Flags. It's just your assumption. MY assumption (based on what I've seen of all of these actors) is that I'm not going to belive a thing about their acting ability until I see it, and UNTIL THAT TIME, I will take it into consideration that the Flags cast is at best "unproven".

The last bit of your post I will address (because frankly, I'm done with you) is this:


I've reversed the replies for a bit of effect, as they addressed different sections... but I'd just like folks out there to read this carefully.

You condemned me for approaching the subject that the Academy won't vote for Clint because it's been too soon but then you USE that same argument to argue against the minority audience voting for Crash because it just won. I don't mind it being contradictory, we all do it, but it gave me a chuckle.

To an extent, nominations in many categories are created by committee, which is why you rarely see ILM have 3 films nominated all at the same time for Visual Effects. This is obviously not how the Best Picture nomination works, but I do believe the "we just awarded him two years ago" may psychologically play a part in many voter's minds... how could it not?

Just like it may play into their minds that they "have to award Martin Scorsese" the same could work against a director who's won too many times. Especially in an Awards show that is not immune to politiking.

By the way, I made a mistake before in my paragraphs. I had thought that in andaroo's post he said that The Departed was Dreamworks(I'm wasn't familiar before, I was taking his word... yeah), when actually it's Warner Bros. In any case, 2 noms from the same studio are still hard to come by. I don't think it's impossible that both will get in, but I'm not betting against it. My top 5 remains the same.

The biggest problem with Dreamgirls in my opinion is all the director. Yes Condon did Kinsey, but I expect that to play out as much as Mangold doing Girl, Interrupted. You stack him up against Clint Eastwood, and he'll get killed. I'm actually predicting that Dreamgirls will play out very similarily to Walk the Line, where it wins Best Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, it gets some big acting noms, but thanks to no director steam, it misses out on Best Picture.