So you want to win an Oscar? This is no time to be fashionably late

Anne Thompson
Sunday December 5, 2004
The Observer

With the Oscars, timing is everything. Peak too early, and your momentum peters out before the ballots are sent out in January. Peak too late and nobody pays any attention. The race got off to a fast start at September's Toronto Film Festival, when the musical biopic Ray, California comedy Sideways, coming-of-age movie The Motorcycle Diaries, and poignant period drama Finding Neverland took early leads. Sideways and Finding Neverland are building thanks to boosts from early critics' groups and look likely for Best Picture slots, along with the late studio entries, The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. While these 10 Oscar movies will dominate the nominations through all the categories this January, there's always the possibility of a fifth-slot upset from an unexpected quarter. It's unlikely that outside agitators such as Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ or Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 will make it into Best Picture contention, but voters could recognise the artistry of Pixar's popular and critical hit The Incredibles - which will surely walk off with an Oscar for Best Animated Feature - and also give it a shot at the big prize. But while CG may be king at the box office, the actor-dominated greyhairs at the Academy tend to prefer good old-fashioned live action.

1. Million Dollar Baby
Clint Eastwood follows up last year's Oscar contender Mystic River with this deeply-felt father-daughter drama. The intimate three-hander is masterfully orchestrated by producer-director-composer Eastwood, who also plays the role of his life opposite three-time Oscar nominee Morgan Freeman and Oscar winner Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry). In an ordinary year Eastwood would walk away with a Best Actor prize, something he has never won. He'll be a strong competitor in the Best Director race, and could well return to the podium for his second Best Picture Oscar.

2. The Aviator
Originally developed by Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Mann, Martin Scorsese took over Gladiator scribe John Logan's well-crafted 20-year portrait of dashing but obsessive playboy billionaire Howard Hughes. The end result is Scorsese's least personal but most brilliantly directed movie in years. Clocking in at two hours and 40 minutes, it moves at a lickety-split pace through Hughes's early Hollywood phase, including his volatile relationship with feisty Kate Hepburn (Cate Blanchett), his heroic aeronautic breakthroughs, test-flight crashes (super special effects from Titanic 's Rob Legato), fights with Pan Am mogul Juan Tripp (Alec Baldwin) and his increasingly disturbing obsessive-compulsive germ phobia. Front and centre is DiCaprio, who effortlessly carries the movie and should earn his first Best Actor nomination.

3. Finding Neverland
Swiss director Marc Forster uses a light touch with this follow-up to the Oscar-winning Monsters' Ball. His cred as an actors' director will continue to grow, based on his restrained treatment of what could have been a treacly exercise. Forster avoids the sentimentality that could have collapsed this delicately magical soufflé about asexual Peter Pan author J.M. Barrie. Johnny Depp, Kate Winslet, Julie Christie and child actor Freddie Highmore never deliver a false note.

4. Kinsey
Oscar-nominated writer-director Bill Condon (Gods and Monsters) deftly weaves social history, biology, sex education and pop culture into this compelling biopic of the pioneering sexologist Alfred Kinsey. Liam Neeson gives a powerful performance in the title role, with able support from Laura Linney as his wife and Peter Sarsgaard as his assistant and sometime lover. All could win nominations, but even in the most brutal Best Actor race in years, Neeson should score a slot because of the attractive nobility he brings to a character who could easily have veered towards the truly creepy.

5. Sideways
About Schmidt director Alexander Payne's bittersweet relationship comedy is beloved by critics. Adapted by Payne and long-time collaborator Jim Taylor from Rex Pickett's novel, Sideways boasts side-splitting slapstick and gut-wrenching honesty. Payne and his producer Michael London (House of Sand and Fog) kept control of the project, cast it themselves with non-marquee actors such as Paul Giamatti and Thomas Haden Church, and are now reaping the rewards of a bracing indie hit that no big studio would ever have made.

6. Ray
Taylor Hackford's rollicking musical history of late great singer Ray Charles is about talent overcoming hardship. Jamie Foxx has been the one to beat for Best Actor, but he may have peaked early. While there's no question the movie is a crowd-pleaser, it may not be taken as serious enough to go the distance.

7. Closer
Thanks to producer-director Mike Nichols's clout and the casting of four gorgeous movie stars, Patrick Marber's talky screen adaptation of his hit London play still cuts close to the bone. This R-rated drama of beautiful people struggling with love and fidelity may prove too intense for some older Academy viewers. While Clive Owen dominates the movie in the juiciest role as a cuckolded husband on the rampage, Julia Roberts, Jude Law and Natalie Portman all hold their own.

8. Spanglish
Eight-time nominee James L. Brooks has somehow managed to escape the Oscar comedy ghetto. He wrote this one himself, about how a Bel Air family, lead by master chef Adam Sandler and neurotic housewife Tea Leoni, learns to function from their canny Mexican maid (Paz Vega). Cloris Leachman makes a comeback as Leoni's equally idiosyncratic mother.

9. A Very Long Engagement
This pro-peace First World War mystery romance was made by Jean-Pierre Jeunet, the director of Amelie, which won five nominations. It boasts comedy, tragedy, period scope, masterful visual effects, and the delightful Audrey Tautou as its spunky lovelorn heroine. Not eligible for Best Foreign Film because it didn't open in France early enough, A Very Long Engagement needs to gain traction with audiences and critics' groups to get into the race.

10. Hotel Rwanda
Northern Irish writer-director Terry George, who was Oscar-nominated for writing In the Name of the Father, tackles the horrors of the 1994 Rwanda genocide in this consciousness-raising drama. Don Cheadle (Traffic) breaks out as a major leading man in the heroic role of real-life hotel manager Paul Rusesabagina, who singlehandedly saved the lives of more than 1,200 Tutsi refugees. Sophie Okonedo (Dirty Pretty Things) plays the wife who spurred him on.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/screen/story/0,6903,1366531,00.html

Maaaan, Million Dollar Baby is getting close to a lock for a Best Picture nom. Seriously, it came out of nowhere and skyrocketed.

At this point, I'd say that Finding Neverland and The Aviator are 100% locks for a nom.

You know, at this point (and especially with the reviews Closer is getting, though I'm still far from excluding it entirely), the line-up The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Kinsey, Sideways, and Million Dollar Baby seems to be the most practical one at the moment.

I'm really a bit surprised Finding Neverland has assumed the position of a lock. It was a wonderful movie, but it almost seems too slight and vanilla to actually get a Best Picture nomination.

But, don't you guys know how unlikely it is...

to have TWO studios that have TWO movies in the final lineup (FOX Searchlight and Miramax)?

Looking at this list, here are the top 4 that hit it for me, noting that there are a couple that I didn't see yet.

Note: ON some that I didn't choose, I think they were good films but they shouldn't be the Best Picture of the year - like FN and Closer for example.

1. Million Dollar Baby
2. The Aviator
3. Finding Neverland
4. Kinsey
5. Sideways
6. Ray
7. Closer
8. Spanglish
9. A Very Long Engagement
10. Hotel Rwanda

It's odd. Some of the films are polar opposites, unlike say 1998 with 3 WWII era films and 2 Elizabethan era films competing for BP.

Just as someone could call Finding Neverland slight, vanilla, or perhaps too feel good and sugary, others could call Closer cold, empty, and plastic.

One thing is for sure, the AMPAS does tend to not go dark in rewarding BP. Acting, not an issue. But for BP, lighter is better.

What an exciting year.

I still think that Kinsey is to small of a movie with too delicate of a topic to get a nom for Best Picture.

The top 5 with The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, Sideways, Finding Neverland, and Kinsey is I think as safe as you can get. But the onyl one I still have reservations for is Kinsey... it didn't strike me as instant Oscar contender and I think that's the slot that Ray, Hotel Rwanda, and Closer could still nab....

1. The Aviator
2. Finding Neverland
3. Million Dollar Baby
4. Sideways

5. Ray
5. Hotel Rwanda
5. Closer
5. Kinsey

I don't know about Sideways.

I mean if About Schmidt (a more mainstream film, with Jack Nicholson, a (much) more acdemy friendly theme, better box office etc) couldn't get a nomination...why would Sideways?

Agreed...it is too small.

I think most of you are counting out The Phantom of the Opera too early

I think Phantom will depend on the reception much like Alexander got killed by it.

Agreed. Phantom is iffy. It can go either way. Loved or hated. Musicals are usually a gamble, but the recent ones (Moulin Rouge and Chicago) worked.

I have to agree. It was good, but it wasn't great. Something was missing. I'm also starting to doubt Sideway's chances. I keep going back and forth on it, but it does seem way too small. Same for Kinsey. I'd say Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator are the only locks. I'm tempted to say Finding Neverland is, and it probably will get one, but there's something that makes me doubt its chances.

WOW. I completely forgot about The Phantom for a few hours there...

Actually I just read a bog article it had (front cover of the Calendar in LA Times).... just the fact that Andrew Lloyd Webber is involved in the film is a huge plus.... I think if it's a great crwod-pleaser and just as long as it doesn't disappoint, it could get that 5th slot nom. right now I have it just below those 4 films tied for the 5th slot because it's buzz has leveled off in the last week.... so with December 22 approaching, we will have to see how it plays out...

As for Sideways... it is wayyy more a likeable film than About Schmidt... I agree Schmidt had the older acaedmy crowd going with Nicholson and Bates, but it was also so dull most parts of the film... Sideways is MUCH lighter and that's the spot it's aiming for, unlike Spanglish for which everyone is basing it on Brooks (i think i got his name wrong in another post...). We are not basing our Sideways predictions solely on Alexander Payne but on the fact that it's gonna be the light film in the top 5.

I don't really know where to put this, and I didn't want to start a new thread, so I'll put it in here.


Oscar epiphanies!
Here are some good bets for acting category wins

By Jeff Lelek
December 5, 2004

Greetings and happy holidays! Critics’ awards will probably have more impact this year than usual due to the lack of any serious traction for a particular frontrunner, except for Jamie Foxx and perhaps Annette Bening, who are practically assured nominations. For the most part, nomination slots are wide open for the taking for those who attract enough awards-season honors. But I’m not here today to discuss who might slide into that tricky fifth spot, I’m here to shuffle out onto that precarious limb of Oscar prognostication and provide you, at no extra charge, with this year’s winners in the acting categories.
Now I will probably be completely wrong about these, and since some of these films / performances haven’t been screened for most of us, I’m running on pure speculation and analysis of the potential competition, not particularly on quality of performance. These names just happened to hit me, and I can’t figure out how they lose.

Best Actor

Obviously, Jamie Foxx is the frontrunner, he has been for a couple months now. I don’t know what it is, but I just can’t picture him winning; for me, all depends upon the film itself receiving across-the-board nominations, including, most importantly, Best Picture. If he’s the sole nomination for the film, he’s probably done. Paul Giamatti, Liam Neeson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, Javier Bardem, Don Cheadle…whew, I could probably throw in a few names there as far as quality competition in this category. However, none of these candidates is currently riding the wave of goodwill and love like Johnny Depp. The nomination last year for his Pirates of the Caribbean performance was, at least in my opinion, justified, and pretty amazing. Actors who play pirates in Disney films don’t get nominated for Oscars, and I would argue that widespread respect for Depp figured into his nomination as much as the inspired goofiness onscreen. In fact, he probably would have won if it wasn’t “his year” for another respected actor, Sean Penn.
There are no such roadblocks this year. He is sublime in Finding Neverland, a sweet, subtle performance that I really cannot picture anyone else playing. The sniffling and blowing of noses in the theatre I saw it in is plenty enough of an indication that this is a sure-fire Academy movie, especially with Miramax behind it (they would be crazy to not put the majority of their forces behind this film). It’s not perfect, but it is human, charming and moving despite its manipulations. If it is Best Picture nominated, then Depp must be pulled along for Best Actor, as well.
Foxx hasn’t paid his dues like Depp has, and that’s one advantage. The above-mentioned Miramax push won’t hurt, either. It appears that Foxx may have peaked a little early, while Depp is just warming up the PR campaign. Word on Million Dollar Baby is astounding, and Clint Eastwood will undoubtedly pick up votes to have his acting finally acknowledged, but he has his statuettes already. Despite any precursor wins (or lack thereof), I believe that Johnny Depp will finally win that elusive, and well-deserved, Academy Award.

Best Supporting Actress

While we’re on the topic of Finding Neverland, Miramax, and beloved, respected actors that are due recognition, let’s talk about Kate Winslet, who will win for the same reasons Depp will. Winslet has the potential to be a multiple nominee for Neverland and for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (while deserving, this performance is far from a sure bet nomination). If that happens, then Winslet is more of a lock than ever. Look at this character she plays: single mother – with illness. Can there be anything more perfectly suited for Oscar? She is lovely in Neverland, and much like Depp, it is a quiet, more subtle performance. Laura Linney is nearly Winslet’s equal as far as goodwill amongst peers, but attachment to a probable Best Picture nominee will send Winslet over the top. Virginia Madsen is another likely nominee, but any nominations for Sideways will be hard-won and might be reward enough. Yes, I don’t see how Winslet loses, unless something silly happens like Best Actress / Supporting Actress confusion. Hopefully Miramax has things settled as far as that goes.

Best Supporting Actor

If the talk about Million Dollar Baby is accurate (and I see no reason why it wouldn’t be), then Morgan Freeman is a pretty good bet for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. And there’s no way he can lose if this happens. Thomas Hayden Church will win more critics’ awards, but Freeman has been so loved and respected for so long that he’s due (are we beginning to sense a pattern here?) Eastwood’s direction wins Oscars for his actors, and this is the one sure thing I can picture to come from Million Dollar Baby. Can you picture anyone else beating him? Clive Owen? Peter Sarsgaard? Hell, no. Plus, as with the above predictions, he’ll be attached to a probable Best Picture nominee.

Best Actress

The above three predictions I make with supreme confidence; this one, I do not. Right now it looks like Annette Bening and Hilary Swank versus everyone else. I’ve not seen Being Julia, but whenever I see clips it looks like Bening is trying to channel Bette Davis in All About Eve, and not getting particularly good reception in the attempt. It doesn’t look like anything special, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. Swank’s inclusion is based purely on rapturous advance word. Bening could fall into the “been around long enough so it’s her year” crowd, but she hasn’t worked in a while and despite a couple prior nominations I don’t get the sense that she is “owed” as much as, say, Sean Penn was last year or Johnny Depp is this year. And do you really see the Academy making Hilary Swank a two-time winner already, regardless of how good she is? So what are we left with? Julia Roberts. Closer may die at the box office and may have met with mixed critical reception, but this is Julia freaking Roberts, after all. She will not need very much of a push to make the cut, and playing against type is always a sure way to attract Oscar’s gaze. She just had kids, she’ll be appearing in cute little baby pictures on magazines everywhere the next few months…it looks like a perfect setup to me. Plus, she is one actress I could see the Academy making a two-time winner. I know it seems like a leap off the deep end, but I think she has a good shot.

So there we have it: Johnny Depp, Julia Roberts, Morgan Freeman, and Kate Winslet onstage as your Oscar winners for this year. It’s not too hard to picture, is it?

Ray is getting a Best Picture nomination. Nobody can tell me otherwise until the nominations are released.

In the "I didn't think I would be saying this two weeks ago" column: Million Dollar Baby kills all other Warner Bros. releases at this point. Yes, goodbye A Very Long Engagement and say farewell to The Phantom of the Opera.

I now think it's possible for Million Dollar Baby to split Picture/Director with Martin Scorsese :?

About Schmidt was released in 2002, which was a much more competitive year than this year seems to be.

Also, that Jeff Lelek is insane if he thinks Julia Roberts is actually going to win Best Actress. She was terrific, yes, but she's won before and she doesn't even give one of the top two performances in the movie.

If Clint Eastwood is nominated for all three categories (Picture, Director, and Actor), and given last year with Mystic River, Academy will be hard pressed to not award him for one of the three. Actor is least likely, so Picture/Director split is quite possible.

Actually, I think that Actor is likely. Don't forget the "Sympathy-Oscar".

True. I guess unlike Washington, Foxx hasn't paid his due, so academy may not feel oweing him anything. Also peaking early is never a good thing in the acting category, as Sissy Spacek and Julianne Moore showed.

I'm not sure about him winning Best Director, but Picture or Actor is another story. I think the Academy will give Martin the Oscar, just because they haven't before and he's "overdue". The Golden Globes are another story, because they gave him the award in 2002, but he lost the Oscar.

Some fun facts:

Best Picture/Best Director splits:

2002: Chicago/The Pianist (Polanski)
2000: Gladiator/Traffic (Sodeberg)
1999: Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan (Spielberg)
1989: Driving Miss Daisy/Born on the Fourth of July (Stone) **
1981: Chariots of Fire/Reds (Beatty)
1972: The Godfather/Caberet (Fosse)
1967: In the Heat of the Night/The Graduate (Nichols)
1957: Around the World in 80 Days/Giant (Stevens)
1952: The Greatest Show on Earth/The Quiet Man (Ford)
1951: An American in Paris/A Place in the Sun (Stevens)
1949: All The King's Men/A Letter to Three Wives (Mankiewicz)
1948: Hamlet/Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Huston) ***
1940: Rebecca/The Grapse of Wrath (Ford)
1937: The Life of Emile Zola/The Awful Truth (McCarey)
1936: The Great Ziegfield/Mr. Deeds Goes to Town (Capra)
1935: Mutiny on the Bounty/The Informer (Ford)
1932: Grand Hotel/The Bad Girl (Borzage)
1931: Cimarron/Skippy (Taurog)
1929: The Broadway Melody/The Divine Lady (Lloyd) ****
1928: Wings/Two Arabian Knights (Milestone)

** Note: Driving Miss Daisy's director, Bruce Beresford, oddly was not nominated for Best Director, the only time in the modern era that a director is not nominted from the winning film. Sucks to be him!

*** Academy history gets a little hard to compare from this point back in time, as the categories start reverting to their primordal origions, wherein the categories have far more than 5 nominees.

**** No films get nominations before this time (the first 2 years basically) they are "chosen".

A few notes and speculation:

One can see by this list that even if you take into account the weird pre-1950's Academy (which makes up roughly half of the above list) that the Director/Picture split is rare.

Usually, when I look at people's posts, I try to determine whether or not they believe that the recent trend towards splitting picture and director is a random occurance or a change in the Academy ways, which I'm sure we won't have any perspective on until the next 5 years of Academy history is written.

I usually, in a prediction, attempt to find the one canidate in one of these two categories and then make the judgement call that on average the chances of a split are more rare so in that case that leads me to believe that The Aviator will win both this year.

I don't think Martin will get the award just because he's due, by all accounts The Aviator is no Gangs of New York and the Academy ended up making the right decision and not awarding that picture. I think the whole race for the top awards pivots on his nomination/win is one of the strongest chances at the awards so far.

I don't think Eastwood is in the realm of needing a "sympathy Oscar" at this point. Even for acting. He has two awards after all!

Based on my own personal feelings about how this is going, I think it is at least a 75% chance that Picture/Director will be the same film. I give it to Scorsese.

Million dollar baby wont make it .. it just wont ... its december and its a completely unheard of movie

Thanks for playing.