Reviews and the general public are praising the movie to no end. On Metacritic it has a score of 90, with a stunning 18 of it's 37 reviews all being 100s. For comparison sake, Capote had 16 100s out of 40 reviews (with a score of 88); Brokeback Mountain had a score of 87, with 17 out of 41 reviews giving it 100; Good Night, and Good Luck had a score of 80 with 9 100s out of 41 reviews. Of all the big Oscar contenders in most of the decade, only Sideways has a higher score. True, it looks like United 93 had a subdued opening weekend, but I see potentially massive legs for it. If Univeral gave it another 400 or so screens next weekend, it has a genuinely good chance of increasing. At this point I'm not sure how World Trade Center will affect United 93. I can't imagine it doing better at the Oscars then United 93, but it could potentially overshadow it. Or, suppose it's a total dog, how would that affect United 93? Anyways, it's hard to say at this point, but I really do think United 93 has a great chance at a BP/BD nomination, if not a potential win.

No BP win. But nominations, yeah.

From a practical standpoint, I can't even think of which nominations United 93 could qualify for. Certainly none of the big 7 (Pic, Director, Acting, Writing). That leaves techs, but with visual powerhouses like Dreamgirls, Flags, Departed in the race, is there room for United 93?

It's tepid box office certainly doesn't help.

With all of the critical praise, it has a pretty good shot at getting a nomination, but it depends on the rest of the year.

At this same point in time last year, Crash was coming out and didn't have nearly as impressive reviews.

In regards to the tepid box office argument, once again, Crash opened to $9M opening weekend (under a $5,000 PTA), and United 93 will do better than that. Based on the likely extremely good word-of-mouth the film is going to have, I could see it doing at least $55-60M off of a $12M weekend.

Too soon to tell, if they would have released this in december, I would have said great.

Have you seen the film? How can you discount it so fast when its garnering some of the highest critical praise any movie has recieved in years?

why can't it best picture nom? or director nom?

I don't know, after Crash last year you never know what the Oscars will go for, but I'm not feeling it for United 93 quite yet.

I do however think this movie won't be nearly as leggy as everyone thinks, no matter how good the WOM is there are too many people who will not see this movie no matter how much it is praised. And I think a lot of those who did want to see it saw it this weekend. Should be an interesting run though, that's for sure.

it won't get one single nomination.

Yeah, it'll be 'forgotten' come next January.

Hollywood hates America, so obviously this will not get any nominations.

I think I'll go with my gut and say that this will get 0 nominations.

I think its best shot is maybe Directing or one technical nod but seeing as how this year is shaping up to have ALOT of potential Oscar fodder with ALOT of big names this won't get a mention anywhere.

It doesn't even have the people's support. It will be lucky to finish with $40 million at this point. I thought it might have great word of mouth because the reviews were so stellar, but after seeing it, I don't think alot of people would be too prone to recommend it to others.

However, if it does indeed grow into a small sensation over the first couple of months of summer (my original prediction) then it could nab something (also given that a few of the high profile films disappoint by year's end).

Actually, yes I have.

It's not about discounting something so fast, it's about being knowledgeble in regards to AMPAS nomination trends.

Don't think it'll have much presence, maybe not a single nomination.

I think the box-office is a bit of a factor. Crash didn't have much numbers, but it's expectations were much lower. It was a much smaller hyped release, and it's 9 mil gave it great sleeper status with the rest of summer of overshadowing it's hype. U93 wasn't much below RV as the "big opener" movie of the week, even with it's small theatre count. Crash outperformed expectations, U93 landed under. Anything could happen with a late push like Crash, but to me I believe it came out too early and the competition will push it back come late season.

Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

If this year turns out as good as I hope then im pretty sure it'll get 0. Theres not alot of catagories it has a shot at even at this point. Picture and Director is possible but really what else? Does the movie stand out in a technical aspect?

Anyways it's chances at even one nod anywhere is slim.

When Oscar time rolls around, I don't really think United 93 will pull enough Oscar weight to get many, if any, nominations. It is critically acclaimed and is making an emotional impact, but it has no acting support (meaning, there are no "standout actors" that you could nominate for an award) and the technicals probably won't get anything because by the years ends there will be plenty of big, action, obvious "technical films" to take the technical award slots.

The only thing I could think of would be Greengrass getting a Director nomination for creating a non-exploitative, hollywoodized, etc film regarding 9/11. But maybe that's bad, because it won't be "Hollywood" enough. I dunno. It'll be interesting.

All I can say is that United 93's Metacritic score is absolutely phenomenal. I'm amazed it got so many 100 scores of there. Only the real top films of the year get over ten 100 scores, and United 93 has an overall score of 90, which is also incredible. Last year not a single film got in the 90 range, if I'm not mistaken. Even if that's wrong, in most years as I remember it, there were only a few 90-range grade films. So maybe this film will get some things at the Oscars.

PEACE, Mike.

About a Boy

Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%):
The Incredibles
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit
March of the Penguins
Hero
Spider-Man 2
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Nemo
Catch Me If You Can
Minority Report
Monsters, Inc.
Memento
Chicken Run

I didnt check box office.

I'll go by year (fresh % on RT)

2005
Millions - 88%
Broken Flowers - 87%

2004
Baadasssss! - 91%
Shaun of the Dead - 90%
Garden State - 87%
Kill Bill Volume II - 85%

2003
The Station Agent - 95%
School of Rock - 90%
28 Days Later - 89%
Freaky Friday - 89%

2002
Bloody Sunday - 91%
Rabbit-Proof Fence - 88%

2001
Hedwig and the Angry Inch - 93%
Spy Kids - 92%

2000
Best in Show - 94%
High Fidelity - 91%

About a Boy was nominated for Adapted Screenplay (well-deserved).

But yeah, Lect's argument was crushed.

http://www.metacritic.com/film/awards/

0 in 2005
4 in 2004
4 in 2003
4 in 2002
5 in 2001
5 in 2000

Bloody Sunday had a 90.

Can we just say theres a better chance of Loyal getting an orgy going with Alba, Lohan, Jolie, and Knightley and leave it at that?

Lohan?

But what exactly are those "trends" and how do they apply to United 93? Enlighten the uninformed...

Oh im sorry you're being picky about the orgy you have a better shot at getting then U93 has at getting a nomination. Just make her your sandwich maid.

My pleasure.

You can essentially divide the calender into 2 parts. September through the qualification deadline. And everything else.

United 93 falls firmly into everything else. Now, recent films have had Oscar success with Spring and Summer release dates. But those films are the exception, not the norm. The rulebreakers, they often share common traits. Excellent box office, above the line talent with previous Oscar history, a wickedly smart studio behind them.

Neither the director/writer, nor the editor, nor the cinematographer have past Oscar experience, newbies across the board. Cast of unknowns/has beens/never weres. Unless the AMPAS creates a new category, say Best Use of News Footage, odds aren't in its favor for nominations in the major or tech cats.

That leaves box office and the studio to pull United 93 through.

Box Office so far, not horrible, just ok. Certainly didn't live up to the hype. Next week is huge. We'll follow up then.

So that brings us to Universal. They didn't exactly set the marketing world on fire with Cinderella Man, Munich, or King Kong, films that were highly praised last year. In fact, having Universal back your critically acclaimed film, a film like United 93, could be the worst thing possible. Focus Features would have been a much safer route.

Any questions?