This is almost an impossible category to predict, but I'll give it a shot. Who are your supporting actor picks for this year?

Top 5;

1. Kevin Costner - The Upside Of Anger
2. Jake Gyllenhaal - Jarhead or Brokeback Mt.
3. Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man (maybe he can get a reward for two snubs in a row)
4. Anthony Hopkins - Proof
5. Christopher Plummer - The New World

Alternates:

Ken Watanabe - Memoirs Of A Geisha or Batman Begins
Peter Saarsgard - Jarhead (maybe he can get a reward for two snubs in a row)

Oh come on! I'm not the only one insane enough to try this!

Gyllenhal is the lead in Jarhead isn't he?

I have no idea. He may be one of the leads in Brokeback Mt. too.

Too early of course, but who cares? I'm bumping for the beginning of fall/Oscar movies!

paul giamatti definitely

id like to see good ole kevin costner get nominated too

I really don't think Paul Giamatti will get nominated unless they like start this huge Cinderella Man campaign and the A.Actor list is short and weak!

I would actually look down on the Academy for nominating him. His superb roles in 2 amazing films weren't good enough but as soon as he joins a Hollywood bandwagon, he's part of the crowd?

This actually is a pretty tough category to predict right now...

The only visible possibilities now...

Terrence Howard - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Kevin Costner - Upside of Anger
Anthony Hopkins - Proof or All the King's Men
Peter Saarsgard - Jarjead
Ken Watanabe 0 Memoirs of a Geisha
Chirstopher Plummer - The New World
Christian Bale - The New World (could also benefit from Batman Begins)
Geoffrey Rush - Munich


there are still more smaller, independent movies that I haven't looked deeper into as far as cast goes, but I will soon and give my 2 cents!

- Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
- Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain (lead?)
- Geoffrey Rush, Munich
- Peter Saarsgard, Jarhead
- Ken Watanabe, Memoirs od a Geisha

this category is the only main category I can't fill up 5 nominations..

but what I'm thinking now;
Peter Saarsgard - Jarhead
Ed Harris - A History of Violence

...

After seeing the Syriana trailer, I think Matt Damon has a good shot of making the top 5.

I no longer see Ed Harris making it for A History of Violence. His role is brief and William Hurt makes a stronger impression in an even smaller role.

I think Matt Damon has moved into a good position, too. Here are a few names in the hunt.

No specific order:

1. Matt Damon
2. Matthew Broderick
3. Matt Dillon
4. Paul Giamati
5. Geoffrey Rush
6. Ken Watanabe
7. Kevin Costner
8. Don Cheadle

David Poland's updated picks:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

Don Cheadle - Crash - Lead was a big challenge... supporting makes him a near lock

James Gandolfini - All The Kings Men - The big bad bear returns to movies in a strong role

Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents - Unless the movie flops, he can make this list as Dame Judi's comic dance partner.

Geoffrey Rush/Daniel Craig - Munich - Two from one movie is always unlikely, but these two are power actors and when we see the film, we'll know in a flash

William Hurt - A History of Violence - A great return performance from one of the best movie actors of a generation... it's a brief role, but man does he hit it

Matthew Broderick or Will Ferrell or Roger Bart - The Producers - If the movie really takes off, Broderick can too... but the two broader characters could steal his slot

Matt Damon - Syriana - He is the biggest movie star in play in this category this year... if the role has got some edge, he could move up in a hurry

Richard Jenkins - North Country - A really wonderful supporting perfomance from a veteran working actor who the actors could really get behind

Ken Watanabe - Memoirs Of A Geisha - How do you say "john" in Japanese?

Matt Dylan - Crash - Hard to get in with Cheadle ahead of him

Oliver Platt - Casanova - The secret weapon in the secret weapon, but the movie has to be a contender

Peter Sarsgaard - Jarhead - A great actor who can't seem to break the academy barrier... he is a contender every year, but Jarhead does not seem to be his ticket

Jamie Foxx - Jarhead - Can he get yet another nomination for playing Denzel?

Kevin Costner - The Upside of Anger - A really strong performance that the stars don't seemed aligned for

Sir Ben Kingsley - Oliver Twist - A great actor, but a boring Fagin with too much make-up

Brian Cox - Match Point - Would be a real surprise

Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man - Giamatti's been snubbed for much, much, much, much better

Updated:

- Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
- Don Cheadle/Matt Dillon, Crash
- Craig T. Nelson, The Family Stone
- Geoffrey Rush, Munich
- Matthew Broderick, The Producers (?)

I'm starting to think that Terrance Howard will be nominated for something.

If I had to guess as of now, I'd go with:

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Matt Damon, Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash
Geoffrey Rush/Daniel Craig, Munich

Clooney will be really pushed for Lead for Syriana by Warner. I don't know if it's a smart idea to push him for Supporting for Good Luck aside from the fact that he wasn't really amazing (he was rather good and completely meshed into the cast).

Consequently, if George Clooney gets nominated for Syriana, I don't really see MAtt Damon with a supporting nod. I don't know why. The film still strikes me as something completely contrary to hat the Academy usually goes for, so I have to see it and then really judge its chances. For me at least, it's one if a ind contender that I just can't read. It seems t be gaining serious buzz but it just seems so unconventional for the academy to really acknowledge such a politically heavy film and this film, as far as I know, is about sending a message or making a point and other "political" films in the Academy's history have been epics or geared more towards film-making style, not necessarily using it for an agenda.

Then again, I could be wrong. like I said, I know little about the film. And I know I came off strong with the 'Syriana has an agenda' but I don't really believe that's the sole purpose of the movie or anything.
Ughhh... I ramble!

Syriana does have an agenda, much more than probably any film coming out this year. Jarhead didn't have an agenda and Munich is thankfully much more about personal conflict and morality.

But Traffic and The Insider are recent examples of films with a goal being nominated for major awards.

Standing in line for Ice Harvest, these guys i was speaking with, one of them was convinced Dillan would ein for Crash. I thought it odd only because if there is even a nom from that movie, I thought it would go to Terrance Howard.

Another point I just thought of. I was waiting for the train and saw the Syriana poster. Jeffrey Wright and William Hurt are both in it (Wright in prominent lettering). Now I know Broken Flowers didn't make much of a splash, but enough people who did see it (on these forums) really noticed Wright's performance. I tend to think that actors that show up in multiple movies in the same year (like Howard) get a little more attention during the nom process. Wrights got 4 movies coming out in the next year or two, also.

Just like Hurt's name showing up twice this year may help him get consideration in Violence, I really think Wright is going to show up for either Flowers or Syriana. The other reason i think so is that there haven't been much in the way of prominent supporting roles this year at all. Not including what has yet to come out, its pretty tough for me to name even two or three candidtaes at this point, let alone 5. Now I know this could change as the autumn and winter are the release dates for most Oscar bait, but Syriana in that sense has perfect timing to highlight Wright and Hurt's names. Especially Wright, who has no wins or even noms (unlike Hurt's big stint in the mid 80's) and Wright is due some credit very soon. Ever since Basquait, actually.

I really think we'll see Wright nominated this year.

Predictions as of right now:

1. Jake Gyllenhaal Brokeback Mountain
2. Geoffrey Rush Munich
3. Matt Damon Syriana
4. William Hurt A History of Violence
5. Don Cheadle Crash

The one I'm most uncertain about is Matt Damon. We haven't really heard much about it just yet, but I have a feeling he'll rise above expectations.

I'd say Giammati is in the lead as of now, since he's respected, he put in another good performance in a serious movie and he's considered by many to have been robbed last year. Someone else could come and impress everyone but it hasn't happened yet, but 2 more months to go.

If Jarhead will get any nomination, it will be for Peter Sarsgaard in Supporting Actor.

Not saying he's surely in the top 5, but it's the film's strongest contender.

I am pretty lost on this one as of now, so no comment.

I do think that Giamati will be snubbed once again, though. His performance wasn't nearly as strong in CM as in Sideways anyway.