[font=Verdana]OPENING

<Loyal> First things first, Noms were announced today. Biggest surprise? Xiayun
<xiayun> keira and howl's moving castle for me, since i expected bello and walk the line's snub
<Loyal> You expected WTL to be snubbed?
<xiayun> i just don't feel it was going to get a lot of no. 1 or 2 votes, comparing to other films

<Loyal> That's the headline of the day, any theories out there as to WTL? Anyone?
<xiayun> but munich didn't show that much strength either, so i was leaning toward a wild card
<Dkmuto> I think the passion index has something to do with it
<MikeQ> I see Walk the Line as being another Ray, except Ray had the sentimental factor, as Ray Charles had recently passed away. Ray had a source of "passion", Walk the Line didn't.
<Loyal> But two leads nominated, the only $100 Million grosser, seems off. Just like the rest of the year
<xiayun> coming out right after Ray probably didn't help either.
<xiayun> it definitely barely missed, IMO.
<Loyal> Raise of hands, who expected the WTL snub?
<Dkmuto> probably
<MikeQ> I didn't expect the snub. I thought it would still grab a nod.
<Loyal> raises hand
<xiayun> raise mine
<kypade> not I.
<Dkmuto> Not I, either.
<Dkmuto> I thought Capote was #2 to it all along, but... nope.
<kypade> Like you said, most popular - 100 mil - 2 strong lead actors, coming off the globes, Munich's seemingly stumbling...
<kypade> it all pointed towards a WTL nom.
<Dkmuto> True
<MikeQ> I think it just goes to show the voters go with their hearts, if it is a close situation. Million Dollar Baby winning shows it too. Perhaps even Shakespeare in Love of SPR was the same sort of case. *shrug*

<Loyal> And at the opposite side of the spectrum from WTL, we have Munich, which is looking stronger than ever. Did it ever really die? Or was it all spin? Torrino?
<torrino> I'm here.
<torrino> I do think it died.
<xiayun> the lack of alternative is one reason i gave it a better chance than i'd have otherwise
<torrino> However, I think the academy wasn't really enthusiastic about anything else.
<torrino> Maybe A History of Violence, but that studio didn't run a strong enough campaign to remind voters as LGF did with Crash, it seems. Too early.
<torrino> So, yeah, it died, but it got in because there simply wasn't anything else.

<torrino> What about you, loyal? Do you think it ever really died?
<Loyal> no, it's Spielberg
<Loyal> he can't die
<torrino> Not literally, Loyal.
<Loyal> Here's a director who routinely releases two films in one year, that has to count for something
<Dkmuto> Woo!
<torrino> So you felt a BP vibe all along?
<Loyal> I'm going to shock the system and say we could have a BP/BD split in favor of Munich
<Loyal> I know, I know
<Loyal> Dolce, your thoughts on the rebirth of Munich?
<Loyal> I think Dolce is preparing prose
<torrino> Anyways, what do you think about the "rebirth of Munich"?
<Loyal> There has to be something said that Munich failed to score a single acting nom
<xiayun> i thought munich died too. The guild ignored it for everything except for DGA and editing. we assumed it had a core group of supporters, but they never seemed to show up before the announcement
<torrino> How many nominations did it get in total?
<xiayun> 5
<dolcevita> Munich will rise once more, proving, as is its subtext, that everything is cyclical.
<kypade> which, in Bana, was one of the few it deserved.
<MikeQ> is that the least amount out of all of the Best Pic noms?
<xiayun> yes, Mike. Capote has 5 too
<torrino> Yeah, so what do you think put it above, say, Constant Gardener?
<Dkmuto> The Spielberg factor, probably.
<Loyal> One word, Spielberg
<MikeQ> Munich got in for a nom, but I think there is the chance that the film wins nothing come Oscar night. I certainly can't see how it can win Picture having not even secured noms at the guilds or globes.
<dolcevita> I think part of Munich's "low" tally is the evenly distributed acting time. Though all the actors were great, it really wasn't about them, and low screen time meant the acting awards, sans the much needed addition of "ensemble" were not going to swing in Munich's favor. They didn't for any of the main three, as Good Night and Good Luck, Crash, each only got one acting nomination as well.
<Dkmuto> I agree, I think Munich is a director's piece. Not an actor's.
<Loyal> Which is worse, having no acting noms like Munich or having 3 like BBM and likely losing them all
<Dkmuto> Crash? Not so much.
<xiayun> the problem with constant gardener is that all 5 nominees are on the left of the political spectrum, and there probably weren't enough votes to go around
<dolcevita> Or, its Gardener just wasn't all that great.
<torrino> yeah, but crash wasn't all that great either and that still got in, didn't it?
<Chrisk> Hate to jump in the middle of a conversation, but Gardener was awesome
<MikeQ> I agree with Chris.
<Loyal> Indeed, naked Rachel = greatest
<Loyal> Back to Surprises of the day, we have to talk Knightley
<Christian> Losing all 3 for BBM would probably be worse, loyal, it could mean that they just nominated the actors just because of the movie's clout
<Chrisk> What have you guys discussed so far?
<xiayun> we're discussing the surprises of the day
<Christian> I actually said "yay" when Knightley was nominated
<dolcevita> Torrino, I'm baffled about it. Probably even moreso than you are. Probably moreso than anyone else here.
<MikeQ> I disagree Chris. The nominations mean there is actor support. Just because they don't win, doesn't mean there aren't several people voting for them.
<Loyal> why Dolce?
<kypade> because crash wasn't bp material.
<xiayun> Keira is one that most everyone loved to see but didn't have the gut to predict given how she was ignored both in the U.S. and U.K.
<Loyal> But she owned her role, that's the key in my mind
<Chrisk> I predicted her!
<MikeQ> It amazes me that Kiera wasn't nominated at the BAFTA's, but was at the Oscars.
<Dkmuto> I thought the precursor attention she got at the beginning of the season was a bit of a fluke, honestly.
<Christian> without her, the movie would not work
<xiayun> yeah, she had the passion index
<torrino> I agree with that, Dk.
<Dkmuto> Not that I don't think she deserved it.
<Christian> Do you think Rachel Weisz getting in at the BAFTAs for lead is what led to the exclusion of keira?
<dolcevita> Loyal, I think she had excellent facial expressions and really had the spirit of the character down. She did the best she could with Elizabeth Bennet, and I think the script, especially the ending, actually held her back. Had it not been for the sap, and reversion to a tittering 16 year old at the end, I would have put her right up in the hunting even for the win. The entire cat-and-mouse aspect of her and Darcy's relationship in this
<torrino> Guys, stop asking each other questions for a minute.
<torrino> Okay, let's start with Chris.[/font]

[font=Verdana]BEST ACTRESS

<torrino> To Chris: Who do you think will win Best Actress? Why? Were you suprised with any of the nominations?
<Chrisk> Reese, without a doubt simply based on her wins so far
<Loyal> It would be simpler to ask who doesnt think Reese will win
<torrino> Do you think Keira or Felicity poses any threat?
<Chrisk> Nah
<torrino> Okay, fine. Does anyone disagree with Chris?
<Dkmuto> I think Huffman is the possible upset, but yeah, it's a long shot.
<Chrisk> Hurt was my only surprise...
<xiayun> no, media is trying to create a two-way race, but I'm not buying it
<MikeQ> nope. Reese is far and away the frontrunner.
<torrino> I don't know. I mean, I don't feel the same about Reese as I did 2 years ago with Theron for Monster
<Chrisk> E! was making it sounds like Felicity was the frontrunner...I swear that guy didn't know what he was talking about.
<Loyal> The last few years have all been about transformations, it doesnt get more transformative than Felicity
<Christian> technically, Felicity was prefect
<torrino> yeah, but do they really want to award that every year?
<Christian> *perfect
<xiayun> one thing I do wonder: won't Keira's nomination help Huffman since her presence is more likely to take votes away from Reese than Felicity?
<Chrisk> But the last few years have also been about the young women
<Loyal> Who else has seen both WTL and Transamerica?
<torrino> Jamie Foxx last year, Charlize the year before that, etc.
<Chrisk> I have
<Christian> I have seen both
<Loyal> Xiayun, you bring up a solid point
<Loyal> Keira does hurt Reese
<Dkmuto> She does, I agree.
<Dkmuto> But not substantially.
<Loyal> Enough to tip the balance is the question
<Chrisk> Not enough for Felicity to win
<MikeQ> I still see Reese as a fairly big frontrunner. She has won practically all of the awards.
<Loyal> So it's settled...for now.
<kypade> to clarify-
<xiayun> one reason i love to see the voting data afterward...i was surprised how close they were at BFCA
<kypade> the final voting on the nominees is just straight up, most votes win, right?
<Christian> Yes
<Loyal> Moving on, Supporting Cats, Is this where Clooney wins? Goldie, your thoughts?
<Goldie> But doesn't it have to be a close match-up. Say Reese gets 50 % she still will win in a run away. But if there are 2 that all each getting say 30 % of the vote - then it makes it easier for someone to sneak in.
<kypade> K. Doesnt that mean if someone like Keira snuck in on number one votes alone, she might have a lot of number ones this round, too? or do you think people do that little game..."vote number one for her just to get her in, but later go back to someone else"?
<MikeQ> I could see Knightley and Dench hurting eachother, so I really don't think there is going to be any major upset. Reese has dominated all season. (Sorry, that's my last out of turn)
<Loyal> it's ok Mike.
<Loyal> I want to talk about the Supporting Noms before it gets too late[/font]

SUPPORTING ACTOR

<Loyal> Clooney, he has 3 noms. He was to win right? I'll pose this to Goldie again
<Goldie> What category are we talking?
<Loyal> Supporting Actor and Clooney
<torrino> Supporting Actor and Clooney. Do you think he has a good chance at the BSActor award?
<Goldie> I think this is a better example of what we talked about about - Can't you see it being split being alot of players like Paul G and then Dillion, Jake and Hurt. Break will continue
<torrino> What about you, Chris?
<Chrisk> Clooney, probably. They have to give him something, and I think Haggis is getting screenplay
<torrino> What about Best Picture?
<torrino> jk, jk. Christian, what say you?!
<Christian> for best supporting actor - I agree with Chris
<Loyal> Splits are bound to happen and I agree about Haggis. This is Clooney's only shot and he's the nominee worth watching for. Such a funny guy

<torrino> So you don't think, like, giamatti stands a chance?
<Goldie> Don't you think that there will be alot of splits here and not as many clear cuts as Reese.George Clooney - SYRIANA Matt Dillon - CRASH Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
<Christian> the only spoiler would be Giamatti's "award"
<kypade> I think Giamatti certainly has a chance.
<Christian> they owe him lots
Goldie removed from the roundtable
<Dkmuto> yeah, I think Giamatti is number two
<kypade> indeed. more than just what this nom makes up for. And this year, I think he was just as strong as Clooney in Syriana.
<MikeQ> I think Giamatti has it. They owe him. Clooney will get Screenplay, in my opinion. Crash will be given song so it can walk away with something.
<xiayun> i think when everybody votes, Clooney's influence and his body of work for the year will win more votes
<Dkmuto> i agree
<kypade> Plus, Syriana isnt even Clooney's film! If they were going to give clooney something for this year, it had better be for GNAGL.
<Loyal> You can't rule out the celebrity factor and Clooney HAS to win either Supp Acting or Screenplay. Everyone loves him
<MikeQ> I agree.
<Christian> everyone will be waiting for his speech
<kypade> Oh
<Loyal> He still does that head tilt, tsk tsk tsk
<kypade> and BTW...Lecter (i believe) says Giamatti has it 100percent, no doubts, hands down. Mark that for him. :o

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

<Loyal> Suppporting Actress, one race to watch. DK, your thoughts?
<Dkmuto> Tough one.
<Dkmuto> Rachel Weisz has had a huge - and quite frankly, strange - surge in support as of recently.
<Dkmuto> So... I think she's up there.
<Loyal> Personally, I think Williams can't win. But at the same time, BBM almost needs an acting win in its column to make sense
<Dkmuto> But I'm still not so sure I'm convinced on her being the front-runner at the moment.

<torrino> DK, What about Willims? Could BBM really win BP without a single acting award?
<Dkmuto> I'm going to go out on a limb and say Williams is the front-runner
<Dkmuto> just barrrrrely
<torrino> So why'd you just bring up Weisz?

<Loyal> lmao, Xiayun make sense out of this race for us, Weisz or Williams?
<kypade> I don't think her nomination even makes sense, considering that the film is drowning in the leading men. I couldnt see them "Rewarding the acting" by giving it to her. I think Weisz has it easily.
<Dkmuto> Because of all the recent attention she's received.
<torrino> Or, are you simply of te belief that Weisz, while by no means a frontrunner, could suprise...
<torrino> (or McDormand)
<xiayun> I think Weisz has the lead
<Loyal> She was in The Mummy
<torrino> Just because she won the globe, she's been around longer, etc? Why?
<torrino> She was also in About a Boy, no?
<xiayun> winning both the globe and SAG. Also 4 noms for TCG showed there is decent support for the film
<kypade> plus, she's a stronger actress and she's more deserving for her film (again, Williams has like, 20 min and the movie isnt remotely about *her*.)
<torrino> I dunno, who won SAG last year? It wasn't Portman, right?
<Christian> Blanchett won SAG
<Dkmuto> I guess I'm just a little miffed about her being the potential front runner, as I just didn't find her performance all that showy
<xiayun> also i think BBM will have its actors split votes among those who believe it has to have an acting win, but each is facing an opponent who has more passionate support
<xiayun> SAG matched 4 for 4 last year, didn't it?
<torrino> But I don't really think Weisz HAS more passionate support.
<Christian> SAG matched all 4
<MikeQ> I think Kypade has a point in that Weisz really feels like a lead actress, and that's her strength. I've said all along that she is a lead being stuffed in the supporting category.
<Chrisk> Like Connelly and Zeta-Jones

<torrino> But Mike, does that make her performance stand out anymore than Michelle Williams'?
<MikeQ> yes
<Dkmuto> Some voters are all about screen time
<torrino> I think people will vote for the better performance, not who had more screen time. And, I think voters see (or, at least I hope) a distinction between good lead acting and good supporting acting.
<xiayun> I personally prefer Williams since I thought she shined more in those 15-20 minutes
<kypade> because its more her film. i just dont see williams will get the nom while being so overshadowed and in the background of heath and jake.
<torrino> I guess I just don't see how that makes her the one with more passionate support. Whatever, heh.
<MikeQ> I haven't seen Brokeback, and I'm not commenting at all on who I think should win. I just think Weisz has that clear "lead actress" feel that makes her a strong candidate, plus she won the Globe and the Guild.
<xiayun> But I agree with kypade and MikeQ; Rachel has an advantage by being the focus of the story

<torrino> er, makeshift! What do you think as far as Best Supporting Actress goes?
<makeshift> well, i think amy adams is clearly the most deserving. she gave, in my opinon, easily the best performance of the year.
<makeshift> however, i think it's really a two race horse... michelle williams and rachel weisz.
<torrino> what's working for williams? what's working against her?
<makeshift> well, the brokeback hype is definitely working for her. she could ride on that and possibly pull off th upset. what's working against her is Weisz's dominiace of all the earlier awards.
<torrino> in case you missed it, a number of people here have said that Weisz has a better chance because she "feels like a lead" and she won the Globe and the Guild.
<makeshift> i completely agree.
<torrino> okay, but you just called it an upset. so, you DO think this is weisz's...at least right now.
<makeshift> i think williams gave the better performance, though.
<makeshift> yes.
<torrino> heh, okay. Chris and Christian?
<Chrisk> Weisz or Adams all the way...easily the two best performances this year in that category
<Chrisk> Williams could surprise, but I'll go with Weisz
<Christian> If there would be a change of power in the Oscar race, it would be in Supporting Actress - but for now, early indication suggests that Weisz is in the lead
<torrino> and, your main reasons for thinking she'll pull off with it are...? The SAG and the GG?
<Christian> And the BAFTA lead nomination - now that she's relegated to supporting, the Brit voting bloc can rally for her
<Chrisk> Yep, and the likely support from the Brits
<torrino> Haha, okay, I can sense no one wants to talk about it like this.
<kypade> isnt that enough? the people who are voting on big awards lately like weisz...why would the Acadamy suddenly be any different?
<MikeQ> I was waiting for someone to ask me what I thought. I don't think there's a been a "so what do you think MikeQ?" all night.
<xiayun> I could see another Kate Hudson scenario
<torrino> What do you mean by that?
<kypade> Yeah, Mike, what do you mean by that?
<torrino> Haha, MikeQ, I didn't ask you about it because you were mentioning everything Weisz had going for her earlier.
<xiayun> who was leading all the way but passed over at the end
<Chrisk> She did lose the SAG, though
<makeshift> interesting thought, xiayun. i think if that were to happen, you'd have to give the edge to williams. i think it's completely possible, too.
<xiayun> she did? then i gave her too much credit; i thought she was considered a lock before losing steam, but people were still predicting her
<Chrisk> Mirren won for Gosford Park, but yea, Kate was still the frontrunner
<torrino> But that's the kind of thing you can't really predict.
<Dkmuto> So I guess the consensus is 1)Weisz, 2)Williams, 3)Adams?
<torrino> I don't think Williams is as far back in terms of support as Mirren was, either.
<torrino> yeah, pretty much.
<makeshift> that's my order, but adams gave the best performance, easily.
<Dkmuto> (With me out on a limb for Williams)

FYI - since you bolded my removal above - here are some comments.

I was told that I was speaking out of turn & no one understood my comments.

- It really would have been nice if I was told of this once. And FYI, as it can be seen above, my comments were long so it took awhile to type out
- I see above lots of people above were chimming in whenever they wanted. Mike Q even said that while posting a remark that he was out of place.
- and as I was told that no one knew what I was talking about > which comments were too hard to understand????

BEST ACTOR

<torrino> Mike, what about Best Actor? I'm sure you're thinking Hoffman, but does Ledger have anything going for him? Or is it just like Supporting Actress...
<MikeQ> It sure seems like it's Hoffmans. Ledger early in the race I thought was going to win it all, but it's not happening that way. I think Ledger suffers from being young, and as well as not really having a solid background (according to the academy at least - I think he's great)
<Dkmuto> A Knight's Tale is unforgivable.
<makeshift>
<torrino> I dunno, why is it that Ledger's too young but Witherspoon, Theron, Brody weren't?
<kypade> conquered. Hoffman is too long due (apparently, i've never heard of him before this month). Plus everyone and their mother and their grandmother has rewarded him already. He's not gonna lose this.
<MikeQ> I still consider him a possible winner. I am still adamant that at least one acting award will go to Brokeback. And I was referring to Heath's performances, not his movies as a whole perse.
<makeshift> I don't think Ledger is too young. I just think that it's pretty clear who gave the better performance this year, and that's Hoffman.
<Christian> It's all about weird trends and biases in the Academy
<xiayun> showy performance tends to trump subdued ones.
<torrino> I don't know, this reminds me of the year Denzel won over Crowe for some reason
<xiayun> i consider hoffman a lock. he is really far ahead
<kypade> ledger's performance wasn't showy?
<Chrisk> Hoffman did give the best performance by a male this year
<makeshift> That and what kypade touched on. Hoffman is long overdue.
<MikeQ> I consider Hoffman pretty overrated, so I don't personally think he is that great. But he will win because the academy hasn't rewarded him, and he's overdue, and such and such.
<makeshift> Hoffman's about as close to a lock as you can get in any catgegory this year, in my opinion.
<torrino> 2002, yo.
<Dkmuto> yeah, if adrien brody can do it
<torrino> Did anyone really expect Adrien Brody to win?
<Dkmuto> ledger can
<MikeQ> I agree.
<torrino> Now, would I predict Ledger? Fuck no.
<xiayun> i disagree
<Christian> Who was the frontrunner for 02? Jack Nicholson?
<xiayun> there were two frontrunners then
<Dkmuto> Daniel Day Lewis?
<torrino> Daniel Day-Lewis, I think.
<xiayun> both
<torrino> So they probably split.
<Christian> I see
<Dkmuto> Yeah, neither was solidified as much as Hoffman is
<Dkmuto> I'd say
<torrino> I think Lewis had a little more buzz, but I'm not sure.
<MikeQ> I thought DDL was frontrunner?
<torrino> Yeah, that's what I thought.
<Chrisk> Plus, all 4 others had won previously. I'm sure that played into it
<torrino> But Nicholson is...Nicholson.
<makeshift> I think there's a big difference between '02 and this year. There wasn't a show stopping performance thay year like Hoffman has this year.
<xiayun> they were pretty tied (they actually tied at BFCA)
<torrino> In any other year, Ledger would be frontrunner...
<xiayun> pretty much, sorry
<torrino> He's going to get some votes.
<makeshift> Yes. In any other year, it would be Ledger's trophy.
<torrino> Could that possibly, I don't know, make room for...HOWARD?
<makeshift> Hoffman just got the perfect role, and he nailed it.
<torrino> who's probably not going to split votes with anyone?
<torrino> Heh, everyone agree?
<makeshift> Howard has no chance. None. It's a nice gesture by the academy, but, no...
<torrino> Hoffman Hoffman Hoffman?
<kypade> yes
<Dkmuto> Yes yes yes.
<torrino> Hoffman Hoffman Hoffman Hoffman?
<torrino> okay.
<makeshift> Yes.
<Christian> yes 4
<xiayun> howard is a dark house for no. 2

BROKEBACK, BROKEBACK, BROKEBACK

<torrino> Do you guys want to do...Director? Screenplay?
<torrino> I think director's a little obvious.
<makeshift> is it?
<xiayun> adapted is obvious too
<torrino> Ang Lee. If Brokeback somehow doesn't win BP, he's still winning BD.
<MikeQ> unlike most people, I think GNAGL has original screenplay.
<makeshift> I dunno. I think it's going to be much closer than you think. The academy love's Spielberg, and he did fantastic work this year.
<torrino> It's almost like Peter Jackson with ROTK. I mean, we all knew he was winning director, just to commend him for his other work. You can bring up Scorsese, but still - Brokeback's a much different film than The Aviator or GONY.
<xiayun> director won't be close at all
<torrino> I dunno how the academy would do that again. Especially after Saving Private Ryan.
<MikeQ> if Spielberg couldn't win at guild, I don't see him winning at the oscars. Don't the guilds like double-love spielberg, giving him noms/wins for films the academy didn't even.
<makeshift> Well, i'm not sure Brokeback is a lock for Picture, either.
<makeshift> I also think Haggis has an outside shot, unfortunately.
<xiayun> i don't see anyway Ang will lose director, regardless how the buzz turns the next month
<Dkmuto> I think Crash in general is a hard one to predict at the moment.
<andaroo> loyal invited me, and while I adore him, my mom wanted to watch Legend of Zorro
<torrino> Even if BBM isn't a lock for BP, I still think Lee's a lock for Director. It's a combination of doing something original/controversial/risky and also having been overdue (to an extent, I guess. I'm not the biggest Lee fan, but he's a versatile director and I think he needs to be commended for switching thru genres like he does)
<makeshift> I agree, Dkmuto. I think Crash could end up cleaning house. There seems to be some momentum building for it.
<torrino> I guess I don't see the support in the picture category for Crash, really.
<andaroo> as far as achievement goes, nobody can match Clooney's turn this year. At its base Brokeback is pretty conventional
<xiayun> Crash's momentum isn't building that much, otherwise it would've gotten more than 6 noms
<makeshift> Apparently you didin't see the SAG's, Ross.
<torrino> I didn't.
<torrino> Cold, makeshift.
<makeshift>
<Dkmuto> But I mean, with Crash, I'm thinking the Academy could either go hardcore for it, or just kind of let it be and let them be thankful for the nominations.
<xiayun> If not for Million Dollar Baby, I'd say Haggis is a lock for the screenplay
<torrino> I dunno, I'm thinking the latter xiayun. If Crash swept SAG, which is what I assume I guess, it still isn't that suprising. It had a great ensemble, and SAG awards are voted on by actors and actors only, right?
<torrino> And, still, we have to consider: how far behind was Brokeback Mountain? I'm sure Crash didn't win by a ton.
<kypade> crash only won ensemble.
<xiayun> Crash didn't sweep SAG; it won the award it was expected to win, Best Ensemble
<makeshift> It didn't sweep SAG. It just won the biggie.
<kypade> the rest were expected (giamatti, reese, hoffman and weisz, i think)
<torrino> I dunno, there's just something creepy about a movie that wasn't even received THAT well critically beating out the movie that's swept prety much every award, has controversy going for it, and was directed by someone overdue.
<makeshift> Was it really expected to win ensemble? I don't buy that.
<andaroo> One can argue that Crash doesn't have momentum because it didn't get more nominations, but one can also argue that Brokeback isn't as much of a frontrunner for the same reasons
<xiayun> it was...most predictions had it winning
<torrino> Yeah, I'm seeing your reasons, I just don't want to give in
<andaroo> Bottom line, on Cnn.com, the news was a picture of the Crash cast and the headline that Brokeback didn't win anything
<xiayun> Not getting Best Editing is the only vulnerablity I saw so far regarding BBM
<makeshift> Ouch. Good stuff, andaroo.
<torrino> WHY WOULD PEOPLE VOTE FOR FUCKING CRASH THOUGH
<Dkmuto> yeah, and is that really that big of a damper for BBM?
<makeshift> Crahs is a terrible film that a lot of people love because it makes them feel important after seeing it. That's it.
<torrino> Jesus christ. You talk to normal people, yeah they feel moved, but even THEY realize the flaws with it.
<MikeQ> If Crash had swept up more with nominations, then I would have thought it were gaining steam towards a best picture win. But that didn't happen. Crash has won almost nothing major, so it would really come out of nowhere.
<andaroo> i'm not saying BBM won't win, we're debating things which can never be proven
<torrino> I didn't like BBM that much, but it moved me more than Crash did haha.
<andaroo> I am saying that BBM will be lucky with more than 3 wins, and that doesn't necessarily speak of "universal love"
<Christian> Did you guys notice that Crash ended up being the butt of more jokes, moreso than Brokeback?
<torrino> it could...sweep, andaroo.
<torrino> No one expected LOTR to win 11, either.
<kypade> they didnt?
<xiayun> i still say 5 for BBM
<torrino> Winning BP means a lot in the other categories, I feel.
<torrino> I don't think they did.
<makeshift> No way does BBM sweep.
<andaroo> people expected LOTR to win 8ish
<andaroo> not all 11
<MikeQ> nobody I know ever expected ROTK to win every single one of its noms. That was a huge shocker.
<andaroo> what extra two do you see BBM winning xiayun?
<kypade> oh. i was hanging around the wrong people then. :o
<torrino> I don't think it will, but I'm just throwing it out that BPs gain a lot of momentum
<xiayun> out of williams, cinematography, and score
<torrino> Didn't you guys feel the Aviator was going to win because it was winning EVERYTHING on Oscar night before we got to the bigger categories?
<andaroo> no
<makeshift> No
<torrino> Meh.
<andaroo> Leo was going to lose
<Christian> No
<xiayun> yeah, i did, especially after The Aviator won editing
<torrino> haha, okay.
<andaroo> I actually thought it would split last year
<andaroo> MDB BP, Aviator dir
<torrino> i mean, it was pretty ridiculous. it felt like LOTR all over again, and I was kinda shocked when Scorsese lost BD, cuz we all knew what was coming, and after the momentum...
<torrino> I didn't think Leo was going to win anyways. I don't think he ever will. He's still the boy from Titanic.
<xiayun> i wasn't surprised with Scorsese, since DGA pretty much sealed Clint's win
<xiayun> but i thought the tech guys would be enough to give aviator the BP
<andaroo> DGA was a signal to me that MDB would win picture
<Christian> yeah wasn't it Clint's 2nd DGA win? their bp nominee always wins
<andaroo> I say 3 wins for Brokeback. Weisz is winning, Cinematography deservingly goes to other pictures in that category...
<andaroo> Score will go to williams... probably for Geisha
<Dkmuto> i was a little surprised at munich's score nomination
<torrino> Meh, I'm still calling it a near-lock for BP.
<Dkmuto> i didn't find it all that memorable
<makeshift> Speaking of score, The New World got jobbed.
<andaroo> New World is a tough score
<andaroo> it's like The Aviator... which is amazing
<andaroo> but the movie is filled with cues that are classical music, not original score
<torrino> When I talk to friends, and BBM comes up, I feel like people make it out to be the well-made, audience and critically-approved "Passion" or "Fahrenheit 9/11." I'd just be suprised if Crash, without a shot in anything other than BScreenplay, pulled through given that.

CLOSING, KINDA.

<torrino> Meh. What about screenplay, anyways?
<andaroo> screenplay will go to BBM (long shot Munich)
<makeshift> Screenplay? Adapted or original?
<andaroo> and Crash and Good Night is neck and neck
<makeshift> Crash will likely get original. Cliche's are apparently in.
<makeshift> And BBM is a near lock for Adapted.
<andaroo> i wouldn't mind if Clooney got two, obviously
<andaroo> but if he won for Syriana and not Good Night that would be awful
<kypade> see, told ya :o
<makeshift> I think George is gonna get shut out this year, which is a shame.
<Dkmuto> and i think that's a possibility, andaroo
<kypade> 40yov wasn't well made though?
<Christian> It was probably close, it did get the WGA nod
<makeshift> Eh.. Not for a long, long time.
<xiayun> Syriana moving to original screwed it up
<makeshift> I don't think ti would have gotten it anyway, x.
<torrino> I don't think Syriana would win over GNGL
<torrino> GNGL's a really, really tight screenplay
<andaroo> if syriana wasn't nominated, cinderella man would have been
<andaroo> Good Night and Good Luck is easily the best screenplay of the year
<makeshift> GNGL has a great screenplay. I think The Squid And The Whale is the best of the year, though.
<andaroo> i mean it's drama is its dialog
<torrino> Yep. I didn't love the movie, but I think the screenplay was flawless
<torrino> I didn't see The Squid and the Whale
<makeshift> SEE IT
<torrino> blah i have so much to catch up on haha
<xiayun> on a side note, we should've two screenplay categories in our own awards
<makeshift> YES
<torrino> xiayunnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
<torrino> i don't remember why we chose it all in one
<torrino> but i think we all agreed
<torrino> hold up
<andaroo> actually, the screenplay category should have been eliminated
<andaroo> how many people on WOKJ actually know how to read quality into a screenplay?
<xiayun> we never discussed about screenplay!
<makeshift> andaroo... probably more than you think.
<andaroo> i dont' think so makeshift
<makeshift> Screenplay quality isn't that hard to get, in my opinion. I mean, it's pretty clear something like When A Stranger Calls has a bum screenplay.
<andaroo> screenplay isn't just dialog though
<xiayun> the only reason i can think of eliminating adapted screenplay is that most of us never read the original material, so it's hard to tell how well the adaptation is, and thus they all felt like original screenplay to us
<torrino> you haven't seen it. don't judge.
<makeshift> And something like GNGL has a grat one.
<makeshift> I've seen the trailer. That's enough.
<andaroo>
<andaroo> i don't blame people for not seeing any of these movies
<andaroo> most of them haven't been released wide
<andaroo> still, I would trade Crash and Capote for A History of Violence, The New World, King Kong, The Constant Gardener, etc.
<makeshift> good point. most of the best films of the year have been tiny litte things.
<makeshift> completely agree, andaroo.
<andaroo> so like the happiest people in hollywood today are Universal
<makeshift> i think New World really got a raw deal.
<andaroo> Universal who salvaged through probably the worst run Oscar campaign in history still being able to get all the major nominations
<torrino> so the year seems lot less exciting to me.
<makeshift> it is less exciting than past years. though i do think crash has the potential to really shake things up. honestly, i think it could sweep the biggies.
<andaroo> a good movie is a good movie, regardless of its source
<andaroo> original screenplay is an award created to stroke the egos of screenwriters who would be overcome by 80% of the films that are adapted from some source

Look at Dkmuto's stupid comments.

agreed. :o

Argh, I wanted to be deleted!

I didn't get a chance to read the whole thing yet (about half way so far), but this was just hilarious.

Just read it all through. Sorry, I couldn't be there, guys, but I agree with what you are saying pretty much. So your consensus is BBM/Lee/Witherspoon/Hoffman/Weisz or Williams/Clooney. Sounds good to me, I still think that Giamatti will get it, though. Weisz and Williams is tough, but I gotta go with Williams, I don't see BBM walking away with zero acting awards.

I agree.

And I think is Giamatti over Clooney, for sure.

Glad you think it was funny and the other one above.

Anyway, big deal cause as I mentioned above, it was real BS. Especially due to the fact above that it clearly shows there was never a order and people were making comments anywhere that they wanted. But they only decided to single me out

AND I ONLY MADE 3 COMMENTS. Can anyone say crybaby.

but I wouldn't expect more from Torrino > at least he isn't a MOD anymore so I don't need to deal with him to often.

**********************

My first note repeated

FYI - since you bolded my removal above - here are some comments.

I was told that I was speaking out of turn & no one understood my comments.

- It really would have been nice if I was told of this once. And FYI, as it can be seen above, my comments were long so it took awhile to type out
- I see above lots of people above were chimming in whenever they wanted. Mike Q even said that while posting a remark that he was out of place.
- and as I was told that no one knew what I was talking about > which comments were too hard to understand????

What about Jake? I think he can very well be the upset of the evening - this year's Juliette Binoche, since Clooney has the Globe and Giamatti has the SAG (none has won both, like in the other categories)..

- It's very unlikely that a BP winner loses 3 of its acting nominations - in the last 25 years, there's only Dances With Wolves as a precedent and the other two seem too locked right now..

- The last 4 winners in this category came from movies with 3 acting nominations (Iris, Adaptation, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby);

- He had 2 other movies this year (Proof and Jarhead) - both of them received a few raves and he was raved in particular by a few in Jarhead;

- He has the most screen time of the 5;

- The fact that he comes from a family of artists should also help... (that didn't hurt actresses like Mira Sorvino and Angelina Jolie..) - his father is a director, his mother is a screenwriter and his sister is a famous actress

Williams will get it.

Williams will get it.

I don't understand why Brokeback NEEDS an acting win to justify a win for Best Picture. Ledger, Gylenhaal and Williams have all done fantastic and certainly don't need an Oscar to prove that. The only crazy thing (imo) is a movie winning Best Picture without a Best Director.

She can - she just has tougher competition..

But the supporting actress category is known for a past of major upsets (Tomei in 1993, Binoche in 1997, Harden in 2001, ... ) and that hasn't happened in the last 4 years, so.. you might be right

I actually agree with Lecter and crew about Williams taking the win over Rachel. It'll be BBM's only acting nom, and its not like its a hand-out...she did a really good job.

On the other hand, I do not think its down to Clooney and Giamatti for supporting actor. Dillon will take it. He's a veteran same as the others, and Crash's strength (if one could say it had one) was certainly its acting. They'll reward Crash here with the win, as I don't see it getting anything else. Perhpas screenplay, since I'd earlier erred in Haggis's win in the category last year, but really that Dillon win will be its, and his, triumph.

As I was saying at the Roundtable, unfortunately the Roundtable couldn't comprehend what I was saying, the supporting actor will be tougher to decide as I see more splits in the voting - I can see all of them, except Jake, getting some votes that you might have the winner with 30 % of the total vote. But for Supporting Actress, I still say Rachel Weisz as I don't see any of the others able to take enough votes. I also think MW tv back ground and not high movie exposure will hurt her.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

I was at the Round Table?

so what does that mean???