This is a simple question.

What movie to you expect to garner the most nominations at the Oscar this year?

In the past years, these movies were:

2004: The Aviator - 11 noms
2003: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 11 noms
2002: Chicago - 13 noms
2001: Lord of the Rings: The Fellowhsip of the Ring - 13 noms
2000: Gladiator - 12 noms
1999: American Beauty - 8 noms
1998: Shakespeare in Love - 13 noms
1997: Titanic - 14 noms
1996: The English Patient - 12 noms
1995: Braveheart - 10 noms
1994: Forrest Gump - 13 noms
1993: Schindler's List - 12 noms
1992: Howard's End/Unforgiven - 9 noms each
1991: Bugsy - 10 noms
1990: Dances with Wolves - 12 noms


Obviously, for a movie to come out on the top, it usually needs to have either a super-strong cast with many noms, or many technical achievements.

Frankly, the only movies coming to my mind this year are Memoirs of a Geisha and King Kong if it by any chance manages to grab that Best Picture nod (I don't think so). At the moment, I'd predict Memoirs of a Geisha as the movie with the most noms as it has a strong cast, lots of technical details and good Best Picture potential about it. I see 11 nominations for it.

I don't think any other movie will get 10 noms or more.

Ummmm...

Memoirs probably.

Yeah, it really depends on its best picture chances. For now (it will change) I see Memoirs with possibly 10 nominations (including Best Pic) and King Kong with 8 (without Best Pic).

Maybe Kong can tie They Shoot Horses Don't They? and get 9...

We shall see...

But the thing with Kong...I don't see acting noms.

Well... 9 was just a fantasy number.

Realistically would be 7 or 8 (a technical sweep I guess? - Like Aliens, without the Best Actress).

Memoirs if it can get BP and BD, Munich (9-10 noms) otherwise.

Memoirs probably...

But The New World shouldn't be counted out. If it gets a BP, it has a shot of getting up to 9-10 like Master and Commander did.

who would get acting nods in Geisha???

Gong Li for Supporting and Zhang Ziyi for Lead Actress.

"Geisha", If It doesn´t tank or underperforms "Cold mountain"-style... and, if It´s good and well liked, "The new world" has a chance, too.

Things could go cuckoo and Kong gets a Best Actress or Best Supporting Actor nom (Serkis).

I just watched the trailer for Kong again and I really don't see any nominations except technical ones.

Ok, let's take a close look at Kong.

Best Picture - Possible
Best Director - Possible
Best Actor - Unlikely
Best Actress - Unlikely
Best Supporting Actor - Unlikely
Best Supporting Actress - Unlikely
Best Screenplay Adapted - Possible
Best Cinematography - Lock
Best Editing - Likely
Best Art Direction - Lock
Best Costume Design - Lock
Best Sound - Lock
Best Sound Effects Editing - Lock
Best Visual Effects - Lock
Best Makeup - Likely
Best Score - Likely
Best Song - Unknown

Best Case - 9-12
Worst Case - 6-8

I have hard time believing that the time has come for the Academy to recognize a CGI animated character. I mean, Gollum was great, but didn't get anything...

Actually folks are right about The New World. It's just that we really don't know anything about it yet. If it is great, it can manage to get over 10 noms as well.

I wouldn't say anything is a lock without having seen the movie. Just from the trailer, I can't really tell if it's deserving or not.

The problem with that Chris is that for certain categories, even sight unseen, Kong is a LOCK for a nomination. Just the nature of the beast (pardon the pun).

Kong being a LOCK for SFX or Sound is no different than Phoenix being a LOCK for Best Actor or Geisha being a LOCK for Art Direction.

Well, I think you are right in saying that it has a great shot at many of the awards. Maybe it's just me, but I don't like to say anything's a lock until reviews start to come in and we see where a film stands with critics. For Phoenix, the movie is out and we know he's a lock and Geisha has reviews starting to come out.

Okay, after thinking, I'm taking back what I said. It's a lock for Visual Effects and the sound categories, but that's all I would put it in as of now. I'm sure it can manage a few more, though.

Geisha

Munich won't pass 10....

Best Pic
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Cinematography

How much more can they milk out if they don't really campaign. I'm even thinking it will only end up with the Pic/Dir/Act/S.Act/Scr.Pl./Edit.

I think it will very "Pianist"-esque.

No movie this year will get to double digits in nods. Geisha probalby has the best chance considering it should get alot of technical awards, but still wont get over 10, especially if reviews continue to be mediocre. If Munich does end up with those 7 nods then it can challenge Geisha for sure.

I'm predicting Geisha to garner 10 nominations!

I agree that if Geisha doesn't make it to the big awards, no movie will get 10 noms or more.

Unless King Kong pulls a HUGE surprise.

Geisha won't be this movie.

That leaves us with The New World, King Kong or Munich. If King Kong gets a Best Picture nom, it will easily have the most noms. If The New World gets one instead of Kong it will have the most. If neither get one, Munich should rule.

I'll go with King Kong. I can see Picture, Director, Screenplay and a lead actress nom for Watts now, in addition to the techs.

Either Munich or Kong but I lean to Kong because of the techs which Munich won't have as much of.