List your choices alphabetically who is likely for a best actress nomination in 2005. Please include 5 alternates also.

TOP 5:

1. Joan Allen (The Upside Of Anger)
2. Julianne Moore ( The Prize Winner Of Defiance,Ohio)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line) supporting?
5. Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs Of A Geisha)

ALTERNATES

1. Rosario Dawson (Rent)
2. Natahsa Richardson (The White Countess)
3. Susan Sarandon (Romance and Cigarettes)
4. Charlize Theron (Untitled Niki Caro Project)
5. Rachel Weisz (The Fountain)

In the order of likelihood:

1. Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
2. Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha)
3. Cameron Diaz (In Her Shoes)
4. Uma Thurman (Prime)
5. Kirsten Dunst (Elizabethtown)

6. Julianne Moore (The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio)
7. Salma Hayek (Ask the Dust)
8. Charlize Theron (Class Action)
9. Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
10. Naomi Watts (Stay/King Kong)

If that line-up happens, I will be a very very happy moviegoer.

At the moment, I'd call Zhang Ziyi the closest to a locked nomination for Best Actress this year.

Annette Bening, Mrs. Harris
Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof

Others:
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Juliette Binoche, Bee Season
Rosario Dawson, Rent
Laura Linney, The Exorcism of Emily Rose
Natalie Portman, Free Zone
Glenn Close, Therese Raquin
Sandra Bullock, Every Word Is True Supporting?
Julianne Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance Ohio

1. Shang Ziyi- Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Salma Hayek- Ask the Dust (or Paint (???))
3. Juliette Binoche- Bee Season
4. Patricia Clarkson- Conquistadora
5. Reese Witherspoon- Walk the Line

alternates:
Penelope Cruz- Don't Move
Diane Lane- Fierce People
Diane Keaton- DaVinci's Mother (or...?)
Kirsten Dunst- Elizabethtown
Gwenyth Paltrow- Proof
Charlize Theron- Class Action
Joan Allen- The Upside of Anger
Julianne Moore- Prize Winner or Savage Grace
Rosario Dawson- Rent
Ellen Burstyn- the Fountain (supporting?...probably)
Rachel Weisz- The Fountain or The Constant Gardner

I think that it a bit premature to already state who we think the best actress noms will be, but as they say, to each their own. Yes, while it is true that many of the above are gifted and/or accomplished actresses, they are still subjected to the materials put before them.

I would rather wait until films are released, viewed, and we are all witness to the believability of the story-telling to then make a collective judgement.

The expected quality of the film IS being taken into account.

Yes, I am aware that that is what people are basing their predictions on, however as an example, Alexander was a film that was touted to be a quality film and look what happened to that. We should not be so quick to deal out our noms (at least this early) because even though we are expecting 'quality' films, that may not always be the case in the end. It's just my opinion however, nothing is ever certain.

Alexander had horrendous buzz all year long (which is why I kept putting it on and taking it off my predictions over and over). The only thing it had going for it was Oliver Stone. Which is one thing you learn in making predictions. People responsible for great films make great films again and again (Kauffman, Scorcese, Spieldberg) and those who make crappy movies are likely to be stuck in there for most of their careers.

Beside is you start making them after the fact, how can you call them predictions.


They're safe and boring.

My point exactly, but even the above directors though mostly consistant in making wonderful films have also had a few misses during their careers in film. This is why I will wait until I see the material....if it calls to me.

Forgive if I am wrong, but I thought that these predictions were for whom people think will be the Best Actress Oscar fore-runners for this 2005 season in film. Having said that, then most of this noms are given after the film is seen by the masses including their peers. The predictions are given for whom people think will be on the Academy list for an Oscar...but it is often given after seeing the film material, not before. To say someone is a best actress before seeing the film in which you state they are or will be so renowned for is exciting and risky...yes, but it is not practical. I guess this thread would be about pre pre-noms, but in any event, I am going to wait and make my judgements after. Besides, there is always that element of surprise. Actors that astound us with their performance that we would have never considered..and then those whom we thought were shoe-ins that disappointed us. We know not seems (only what is). :wink:

In the Oscar predicting game, the posters who scored the best were the ones who didn't see most of the movies that were nominated later on. There are certain factors that make the oscar probability higher.

Besides that, predictions are fun. And especially fun to look back at

Understood Lec, but it just feels like these choices are made because of a certain actresses stature or a director's body of work. That's fine for people, but it just doesn't stand well with me as I know there are definite misses here and there regardless.

Sorry to take the fun out of this thread everyone.

There will always be misses. If we could predict the Oscar nominees one year ahead with 100% certainity, we'd be fortuneteller and earn millions in lottery. This is why those are predictions and not facts

And whether one likes it or not th body of work and the stature are decisive when it comes to Oscar nominations. There are just some people and certain types of roles that the Academy likes.

Yes Lec, it just feels like I stated before, a little bit premature, almost like some are writing it in stone. I know what predictions are, but can one really summize a judgement from just a name (person and/or film). I would love to say...bugger all, PJ's King Kong is going to blow the roof off the year. Though I have high hopes, I'll wait till at least I see the trailers and then the film. I hope that you understand the point that I am trying to bring across. Lol...lost in translation...damned Kiwi-ness

Well, this year's only viable candidates so far are both in the actress category....Joan Allen for The Upside Of Anger and Rahda Mitchell for Melinda and Melinda. I hope Allen makes the cut.

At least one or two nominations, in each category this year, will be determined by "x" person's legacy, if they've been nominated before, and statistics which we can reasonably predict, such as release date. It happenes all the time.

Otherwise, it's just for fun. It is the same as guessing Harry Potter's gross in November.

Having said that, this year, I don't think there are any indications that Oscar is going to go any way. I can kind of see the wheels starting to move for Zhang Ziyi and Reece Witherspoon, but their potential seems directly tied to other factors (example: Reece won't get a nomination without Pheonix in my view)

Gong Li, Geisha
Irene Bedard, The New World
Kate Winslet, All the King's Men
Renee Zellweger, Cinderella Man
Natasha Richardson, The White Countess

I like Joan Allen a lot but The Upside of Anger, based on the long trailer I saw, is just a normal commercial romance and not likely to get anyone any Oscar nominations no matter how well it's made.

Murovor -- yes of course it's near impossible to tell a year ahead of time. Half the fun of this is seeing how wrong we all were in retrospect.

Winslet and Zellweger's roles might only be supporting though, it's hard to tell -- not like I have a script in front of me.
I'm pretty sure Bedard's role is big though in the New World.

Cameron Diaz (which I forgot to list?) and Joan Allen move into the top 5, in place of Hayek and Clarkson (it might have been slight wishful thinking on my part :wink: ) move down, and I don't see Claire Danes anywhere on my list, so I'll also add her to my alternates list.

Edit: It looks like there are a couple of actresses, at least, who I completely forgot about, so I'll just make a new lsit, in order of likely hood.

1. Shang Ziyi- Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Joan Allen- The Upside of Anger
3. Cameron Diaz- In Her Shoes
4. Juliette Binoche- Bee Season
5. Naomi Watts- Stay

6. Reese Witherspoon- Walk the Line (still not convinced she'll be a lead)
7. Charlize Theron- Class Action
8. Samantha Morton- River Queen
9. Salma Hayek- Ask the Dust
10. Claire Danes- Shopgirl

11. Anette Benning- Mrs. Harris
12. Toni Collette- In Her shoes
13. Uma Thurman- Prime
14. Ellen Burstyn- The Fountain
15. Gwenyth Paltrow- Proof

Damn it no matter what I do I always forget someone.


There's Evan Rachel Wood in Pretty Persuasion, woh will likely be this year's Reese Witherspoon (Election), but nonetheless is a contender.

My cousin was the costume desginer for PRIME and she says the movie is absolutely terrible. I doubt that Uma will get nominated.

I didn't include Claire Danes in my original list but I wish I had. I hope Shopgirl is good and I hope Danes lives up to all the potential she's had for so many years. I think she really could be one of the greats.

Went into this thread just to post about her

Shes was a great young actress in My So-Called Life and Romeo + Juliet. She has been fantastic in small movies like Igby Goes Down and Stage Beauty, as well as in her tiny role in The Hours.

It's only a matter of time before she gets nominated, and it will be a well earned nomination.


If Shopgirl is any good, which I think there's a good chance it will be...she's almost a lock.

Shopgirl is too incidental of a film. Look for the chance at a Golden Globe, but not the big gold guy.

Anyone think Nicole Kidman could be a contender this year if Fur gets finished? She's missed out the last two years, but if Fur is finished and she's good enough, it's possible. The good reviews from The Interpreter can only help her.

Hmm, hadn't even heard of teh film til now.

But it's from the same (writing/directing) team that gave us Secretary so the potential for a good film is there.


But Nicole Kidman nominated for portraying a suicidal artist? Sounds a bit familiar.