Ok, the general gist of this thread is not to argue who should have (not) made it, but rather to evaluate the candidates that did. Of the five (or three) nominations in each category, which do you, personally, want to win, and which do you think will actually win. The point is to line them up, left side right side, and see the percent of alignment between your tastes and the acedemy's.

Here we go!

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

Should win: I'd say David Strathairn- Good Night, and Good Luck. Fantastic performance.
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman- Capote. Don't think a surprise will happen here anymore.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

Should win: Jake Gyllenhaal- Brokeback Mountain or Matt Dillon-Crash
Will win: I think there'll be a vote split between Clooney and Giamatti. But I don't think either one is strong enough to win. I've been convinced for quite some time that it will be Matt Dillon- Crash

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

Should win: Charlize Theron- North Country....j/k Keira or Reese
Will win: I think there is actually room for a surprise here but I still see Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Should win: I'd say Michelle Williams for Brokeback.
Will win: Rachel Weisz- The Constant Gardener which wouldn't be a bad win. But it's not a lock just yet.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

Should win: Ang Lee
Will win: Ang Lee, no question.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

Should win: Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain. (If Crash wins, I will not watch the Oscars again)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE / Will Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should Win - George Clooney - SYRIANA / Will Win - George Clooney - SYRIANA

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Should Win - Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA / Will Win - Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should Win - Amy Adams - JUNEBUG / Will Win - Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Should Win - WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT / Will Win - WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
SHOULD WIN - KING KONG / WILL WIN - KING KONG

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win - THE NEW WORLD / Will Win - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win - MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA / Will Win - MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should Win - MUNICH / Will Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should Win - MURDERBALL / Will Win - MARCH OF THE PENGUINS

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Should Win - MUNICH / Will Win - MUNICH

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Should Win - THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE / Will Win - THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
Should Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN / Will Win - MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
Should Win - "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW / Will Win - "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN / Will Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Should Win - KING KONG / Will Win - KING KONG

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Should Win - KING KONG / Will Win - KING KONG

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win - KING KONG / Will Win - KING KONG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN / Will Win - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win - THE SQUID AND THE WHALE / Will Win - CRASH

Best Picture
Should Win: Crash (shut up!)
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain (I loved this too, so I'm fine with it)

Best Director
Should Win: Ang Lee
Will Win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
Should Win: David Strathairn
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (a brilliant performance as well, though)

Best Actress
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon (Keira is very, very close behind)
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Matt Dillon/Paul Giamatti/George Clooney (I don't have a clear favorite in this category)
Will Win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Amy Adams (I'd place Rachel second and Michelle third, with Keener and McDormand far behind)
Will Win: Rachel Weisz

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: only saw Heath Ledger's movie, so him by default
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman- Capote

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: saw Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti, and Jake Gyllenhaal's performances and felt none of them deserved to even be nominated! so i'd vote for George Clooney, sight unseen.
Will win: George Clooney - Syrianna

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

Should win: Saw none of the performances, but would vote for Keira Knightley based on her performances in The Jacket and Domino in 2005.
Will win: Felicity Huffman will take it in a close race over Reese Witherspoon due to the deglam factor. Would've picked Reese if Walk the Line also got a picture nomination to show more support for that movie.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: Rachel Weisz over Michelle Williams
Will win: Rachel Weisz- The Constant Gardener, hopefully

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should win: Steven Spielberg followed by Paul Haggis and then Ang Lee
Will win: Ang Lee


BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should win: 1. Munich, 2. Crash, 3. Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: I think Ledger gave the most memorable performance, but really everyone in this category did a fantastic job.
Will win: Hoffman.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should win: I'll say William Hurt, he just stole the movie in his role. Haven't seen Syriana though and I'd be pleased if Giamatti wins.
Will win: Giamatti or Clooney, can't decide.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Should win: Felicity Huffman. I thought Reese gave the best lead female performance of the year until I saw Transamerica, where Huffman is just incredible. Keira would be a welcome surprise though. Haven't seen Dench or Theron but based on other comments I doubt seeing the films would change my mind.
Will win: Probably Witherspoon, though Huffman is gaining a bit of steam.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should win: Amy Adams, she left the biggest mark on her movie. If not her then I'd like to see Williams win.
Will win: Most likely Weisz, which I'm not too crazy about. She was good in The Constant Gardener, but enough for an Oscar? I'd say no. But she's done great work in other films (loved her in The Shape of Things, for one) so it's certainly deserved. (same comment goes for Keener)

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Should win: Ang Lee
Will win: Ang Lee. Easiest category to predict.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Should win: Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain.

Ya... even though I have Crash as my #1, I'm obviously rooting for BBM. So maybe for me it should be
Should Win
Want to Win
Will Win

lol

Best Picture
Should Win: Munich (or Crash)
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain

Best Director
Should Win: Steven Spielberg
Will Win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
Should Win: Terrence Howard
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Paul Giamatti (though I wouldn't mind William Hurt)
Will Win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Rachel Weisz (the only one I've seen of the five)
Will Win: Rachel Weisz

Best Picture:
Should Win: Munich, clearly the best in the category.
Will Win: Brokeback, most likely. I can still pull for a Munich upset though .

Best Actor:
Should Win: Terrence Howard. Just being nominated for a movie like Hustle & Flow proves he should win.
Will Win: Hoffman. He did a good job in a rather lame movie.

Best Supporting Actor:
Should Win: I'm pulling for Clooney, even though I haven't seen Syriana yet.
Will Win: George Clooney .

Best Actress:
Should Win: Haven't seen any of these .
Will Win: Reese.

Best Supporting Actress:
Should Win: I'm gonna root for Rachel Weisz.
Will Win: Weisz.

Best Director:
Should Win: Steven Spielberg, just because he's Steven Spielberg.
Will Win: Ang Lee. I don't like the guy (ruin Hulk will you?) but the academy seems to love him.

Best Picture:
Should Win - Munich..........Will Win - Brokeback Mountain

Best Director:
Should Win - Steven Spielberg..........Will Win - Ang Lee

Best Actor:
Should Win - Heath Ledger..........Will Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress:
Should Win - Reese Witherspoon..........Will Win - Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor:
Should Win - Jake Gyllenhaal..........Will Win - Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress:
Should Win - Rachel Weisz..........Will Win - Rachel Weisz

Best Original Screenplay:
Should Win - Crash..........Will Win - Crash

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win - Munich..........Will Win - Brokeback Mountain

Best Editing:
Should Win - Munich..........Will Win - Munich

Best Cinematography:
Should Win - The New World..........Will Win - The New World

Best Art Direction:
Should Win - King Kong..........Will Win - King Kong

Best Make-up:
Should Win - Chronicles of Narnia..........Will Win - Chronicles of Narnia

Best Costume:
Should Win - Memoirs of a Geisha..........Will Win - Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Original Score:
Should Win - Munich..........Will Win - Brokeback Mountain

Best Sound Editing:
Should Win - War of the Worlds..........Will Win - War of the Worlds

Best Sound Mixing:
Should Win - King Kong..........Will Win - King Kong

Best Visual Effects:
Should Win - King Kong..........Will Win - King Kong

Best Picture
Should Win - Brokeback Mountain
Will Win - Brokeback Mountain

Best Director
Should Win - Ang Lee
Will Win - Ang Lee

Best Actor
Should Win - Heath Ledger
Will Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress
Should Win - Reese Witherspoon (I've only seen her performance out of the five, though...)
Will Win - Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win - Jake Gyllenhaal
Will Win - Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress (Wow, this is a hard category. I thought Adams, Weisz and Williams were all wonderful.)
Should Win - Amy Adams
Will Win - Rachel Weisz (which I'll definatly be fine with as well...)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: David Strathairn
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: William Hurt
Will win: Paul Giamatti

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: Reese Witherspoon
Will win: Reese Witherspoon

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: Rachel Weisz
Will win: Rachel Weisz

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should win: George Clooney
Will win: Ang Lee

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should win: Munich
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should Win: Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck
Will Win: Hoffman - Capote (but he's a close second in my book. Practically a tie, so I really would still be happy)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should Win: Hurt - A History of Violence
Will Win: Dillon - Crash

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Should Win: Huffman - Transamerica
Will Win: Witherspoon - Walk the Line (this is still a sure bet for me, and she was still pretty decent, so I don't see why people have changed there mind on this one)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should Win: Amy Adams - Junebug
Will Win: Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should Win: Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck
Will Win: Lee - Brokeback Mountain (which was also excellent, so I wouldn't mind. Honestly, as long as Spielberg, Clooney, or Lee gets it, I'm happy)

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should Win: Munich
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain (same discourse as director's category, I liked all three alot)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Good Night and Good Luck
Will Win: Good Night and Good Luck

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Capote or History of Violence
Will Win: Capote

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: New World
Will Win: Toss up b/w Brokeback and New World

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Should Win: Murderball
Will Win: March of the Penguins

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win: ?
Will Win: Tsotsi

Not bad, four match-ups, actually six, but since four are toss-ups I counted each as half.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
SHOULD WIN: David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: George Clooney - SYRIANA/Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
SHOULD WIN: Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN/William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE
SHOULD WIN: Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE/Reese will be fine, too.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER/Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
SHOULD WIN: Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
WILL WIN: Ang Lee - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
SHOULD WIN: George Clooney - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
WILL WIN: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
SHOULD WIN: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

BKB, shut up! Walk the Line is probably the only awards contender you have seen anyway. Which of the Best Picture nominees have you seen?

WALK THE LINE is the only one I NEED to see to know it is without a doubt the BEST PICTURE and the moviegoers have spoken keeping it in the Top 10 for as long as it has been and it was a bogus snub, just like SITH being snubbed as well which was lame..

So you rule out any possibility that Spielberg's Munich is better? Or any other movie that was actually nominated for Best Picture?

YES, I rule this out and based on MUNICH'S Box office, I'd say it wasn't very well received to which saves me the $$$ of paying to see this and merely wait for the DVD..

So? BIG MOMMA'S HOUSE 2 made a lot of money last weekend. Would you say that was well-received? Was it a big snub?

I've seen Walk the Line, and compared to Crash and Munich, it's not Best Picture material. And considering that you haven't seen any of the Best Picture nominees, BKB, it's hard to take you seriously at all.

If a troll posts in a thread, and nobody cares, does it still matter?

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: Heath Ledger (Strathairn will be close second and then Hoffman; haven't seen Hustle & Flow)
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: Jake Gyllenhaal
Will win: George Clooney

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: Reese is the only performance I have seen here; will catch on others soon
Will win: Reese Witherspoon

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: Michelle Williams (haven't seen North Country or Junebug, but Williams really blew me away)
Will win: Rachel Weisz

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Should win: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Will win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should win: only see two out of the five, but March of the Penguins is a solid A- and currently still in my top 10
Will win: March of the Penguins

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
No idea.

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Should win: The Constant Gardener
Will win: Crash

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
Should win: haven't seen any of the nominees
Will win: Paradise Now

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Should win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
Should win: I'll pass
Will win: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should win: Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Next.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Continue.

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Should win: King Kong
Will win: King Kong

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Should win: King Kong
Will win: Walk the Line

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Should win: War of the Worlds
Will win: King Kong

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Will win: Crash

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Should win: Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE

I liked Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance. But I'm tired of the award going to great impersonations instead of great performances.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
Will win: Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN

William Hurt was fantastic in AHOV. There's not a supporting performance this year that comes close to matching it.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

Embarrassingly, I've only seen Walk The Line out of all the Actress nominees' films. I wasn't overly impressed with Witherspoon's performance, but it seems to be pretty much a lock that she'll win. I'd like to see Knightley take this one home.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Should win: Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Will win: Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER

Junebug was rubbish. Having said that, Amy Adams really was great in it. Rachel Weisz was very good in TCG, but I'm a bit confused as to where all the love is suddenly coming from. Everyone seems to have this award pegged to either Weisz or Williams. But I think Adams has a pretty good chance to upset.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Should win: Ang Lee
Will win: Ang Lee

Meh, it wouldn't bother me if any of these guys took home the Oscar. Paul Haggis aside...


BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Should win: Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Brokeback Mountain.

Ditto... I wouldn't be too fussed if any of these won the Oscar. Paul Haggis aside...

WWW- drama
WSW- comedy..... it's harder to do....

Once again, comedy, the crowds favorite, gets totally shut out of any nominations....
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
H'woods on 'ludes......