What do you think will be nominated this year?

my early predicts:

Best Drama:
Chonicals of Narnia
Jarhead
Munic
Memories of a Geisha
New World

Best Musical/Comedy:
The Producers (I think the original actully won this award!)
Rent

more coming...
(I know I only have 2 for comedy/musical so far, I'm trying to remember some others)

Musical or comedy-
Walk the Line. Pretty much 100% guaranteed nomination. I'd say its 85% sure to win it.

I think Wedding Crashers might get a nom for best musical/comedy.

Actually yeah, maybe. It was such beloved by everyone. Then again 40YOV got better reviews actually the best out of any movie of the summer. Maybe that'll get one?

Walk the Line I knew I forgot somehting important!
and yeah I was thinking bout WC as well, mary made it in as a nod in 98!

Another Musical/Comedy that could sneak in there, but have no chance at Oscar: Rumor Has It.

So heres what I'm thinking it might look like:

Musical or Comedy:
Walk the Line
The Producers
Rent
Rumor Has It
40 Year Old Virgin

Walk the Line most likely takes it. The Producers is 2nd but if it wins this it would have to be spectacular. Oscar BP nomination spectacular.

I was about to put rumor has it but for some reason i kept on thinking it was a drama!

That looks pretty accurate.
I doubt Narnia will be nominated (you never know though...), and New World was moved to next year, right?
I really hope Wedding Crashers doesn't get a nomination. Hehe.

I think The New World is supposed to have a qualifying run in NY and LA in 2005 so it will be eligible. Narnia won't be nominated.

Wedding Crashers was a hell of lot better than Virgin, so i hope they both get nominated!

Comedy or Musical:

The Producers
Walk The Line
Rent
Rumor Has It
The Upside Of Anger (had to throw a wild card in there somewhere)

Yeah the Upside of Anger, that has a chance. And I'm beginning to think 40 Year Old Virgin is the 4th nomination, meaning it has a better chance than the 5th Rumor Has It. 40YOV is one of the best reviewed movies of the year...

40 Year Old Virgin will never be nominated, ditto Wedding Crashers. They aren't the only comedies to perform spectacularly and get good reviews.

If we assume 5 nominees in each category:

Drama:
A History of Violence
Brokeback Mountain
Jarhead
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich

Musical & Comedy:
Broken Flowers
Elizabethtown
The Producers: A Movie Musical
Rent
Walk the Line

Jerry McGuire ran as a Comedy (lost to Evita).

Winners being Walk the Line and I'm thinking Munich.

Quality doesn't matter as much to the Globes, so it doesn't matter how horrible they are, the fact that there is singing/dancing musicals will make The Producers and Rent nominees.

I'm pretty confident with my comedy nominees. The Globes have been kind to Crowe and Broken Flowers is going to be the Sideways/Lost in Translation type film (in other words, it will win a lot of IFC Independent Spirit Awards). Usually only one or two pictures in this category gets a BP nom at the Oscars and that will probably be WTL.

Anything could happen in the drama category.

As much as I disagree with your 40YOV will never get one statement, I'll let that be for now.

It won't. I'm sorry!

Drama
- A History of Violence
- Brokeback Mountain
- Jarhead
- Munich
- Memoirs of a Geisha
alt: Match Point

Comedy/Musical
- Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (Johnny Depp will also be nominated, despite the whole comparisons with Michael Jackson...)
- Elizabethtown (Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous made it... Vanilla Sky had a supporting actress nomination for Diaz - which seems to be very popular with the Globes - Elizabethtown might also score a nomination for Susan Sarandon..)
- Rent
- Shopgirl (if it follows the route of Lost in Translation..)
- Walk the Line (lock)
alt: The Producers, The Family Stone and... 40 Year-Old/Wedding Crashers?

Yeah I forgot about Charlie, that has a definite chance too.

EDIT- While on that wavelength we can't leave out Corpse Bride's shot. The reviews so far are good for it.

narnia will be nominated... thats a guarantee.

here are my noms

(if they feel like honoring GL and SW)
Drama:
ROTS
Munich
Narnia
Crash
Memoirs of a Geisha

(if not)
Drama:
Munich
Narnia
Crash
Geisha
New World

Comedy/Musical:
Wedding Crashers
Charlie
Producers
Rent
Elizabethtown

You forgot the most regarded one.

There's Something about Mary was nominated, so I wouldn't completely rule out Wedding Crashers, given the fact that it's one of the year's biggest films.
is match point really 100% drama??

Predictions:
comedy/musical
Charlie & Chocolate Factory
Walk the Line
Shopgirl
Wedding Crashers
Rent/The Producers (i mean...come on...phantom was nominated)
Alternate: Elizabethtown

drama:
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Match Point
The Constant Gardner
Munich
Alternates: Memoirs of a Geisha/Jarhead/Good Night, and Good Luck.

IMDB lists Match Point as Drama / Thriller.

I would normally go for it, but this year it has itself a problem. Out of the two, 40YOV has better praise and reviews, and is much more likely to nominated.

And I agree that it is the more deserving of the two.


But Wedding Crashers also has good reviews, even if not as good as 40 YO Virgin. And box office DOES play a factor into nominations. Hmmm, if 40 Year Old Virgin somehow ends up with $140+ million I agree it will be the one more likely to end up nominated (if either is).

Do you guys think any of the year's animated films will sneak into the Comedy/Musical lineup? And which is the most likely nominee???

Anything except Madagascar