Guilds! PGA, DGA, SAG, and WGA all announce the first week of January. Here is my brief analysis:

PGA
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
King Kong
Walk the Line

Films that need PGA the most: well, getting PGA is always important, so it's crucial for every film, but King Kong has to get a nomination here. I can't imagine it being ignored by producers; however, if the unimaginable happens, it's out. If Walk the Line misses PGA, it will be very much vulnerable too since DGA and WGA are more likely to ignore WTL. Munich can miss here and still get a nomination, but it can forget about winning if it misses a major guild after the GG performance. GNAGL needs this the least because PGA tends to favor big production if they have a choice, and GNAGL's strength lies with critic awards and other guilds. Brokeback Mountain is the absolute absolute lock.

Overall, I think this lineup looks solid for PGA, unless they decide to go 6 nominees again.

Films that will get the most boost from a PGA nom: Crash, Match Point, A History of Violence. Especially if Match Point grab a spot here, watch out.

Dark Horse but won't affect the race: Cinderella Man. It could very well get in like Road to Perdition (another summer film that got basically shut out of GG) did, but it will be meaningless.

I'll have analysis for other guilds later.

Yeah, Kong and Munich need the PGA here. I agree. Its the biggest and last shot these two have and one of the most important pre-cursers. Brokeback is probably good for it. Good Night seems to have a little technical strength... I don't know how that translates into "big production" but I think it would be a toss up with any of the films left.

I doubt WGA will go for Walk the Line and Kong. Even with Picture/Director, the writers have a different agenda.

For PGA, if any of those go, I could see Cinderella Man or Crash get nominated. For DGA I think Cronenberg can get a nom.

SAG is where Walk the Line should its strength. Munich and Kong look like they have no SAG Ensemble appeal.

If Match Point gets a DGA nom, then Woody Allen is a 100% lock for a Best Picture nomination.

Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck will get SAG, WGA, DGA and PGA noms.

Munich needs to at least win either DGA or PGA to still have a shot at a Best Picture win. If it misses out on a single nom there, its win won't happen.

Best Ensemble at SAG will be crucial as always and this is where especially King Kong's weakness lies.

I have the same movies for the PGA noms. I also agree that if Match Point gets a nom there, say, instead of Walk the Line, then it'll be really close for the 5th spot.

I wouldn't discount Crash from a PGA. I think that the whole way it came together could go a long way with producers. This is a film that was made for about 6 million dollars with a great ensemble of well known actors, and it made a hefty profit. This is the kind of blueprint that I think many in the guild will respect and look to as something that deserves recognition.

Hmmm. True. It could take Walk the Line's spot as both are successes.

Some film will feel a lot of pain when PGA is announced unless the film that's missing is GNAGL. I think the more likely scenario is they'll add a nominee instead of breaking up the five I have listed.

DGA
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Steven Spielberg, Munich
Woody Allen, Match Point
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence

I actually feel very comfortable with this lineup. Lee and Clooney are locks. Spielberg about 95%, and Allen 85% lock. Peter Jackson is the one spoiler, but I feel Cronenberg will be honored with a nom here.

I would rate it over Walk the Line, personally. Of course, I'd rate Walk the Line over Munich, Brokeback Mountain, and Good Night, and Good Luck.

I think this looks very likely, actually.

Looks good to me, but I just don't see Cronenberg there. Lynch didn't get a nom there either, despite Mullholland Drive getting four GG noms. King Kong is a project that came to life thanks to Jackson's passion and dedication, so I don't see it missing out.

The question is...is there any chance anyone else other than Lee wins? I mean they did him one for CTHD already, but he still seems like a huge frontrunner now... Maybe Allen will somehow get it with him turning 70 this year and finally delivering a good movie after almost ten years of mediocre ones.

The only alternate winner at any of the BP/BD races this year seems to be Munich/Clooney to me. (Depending on what is nominated).

I do think Clooney has a shot in any category against Lee depending on the make up and political background of those doing the nominating.

WGA

Original Screenplay:
Crash
Match Point
Good Night, and Good Luck.
The Squid and the Whale
Mrs. Henderson Presents

Feel very comfortable with the first four. Mrs. Henderson Presents is weak, but I don't know what to replace it with since Family Stone's buzz isn't big, and The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada is none-existant. The White Countess? Broken Flowers?

Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Munich
Syriana
King Kong

The first three look locked. Syriana looks solid. WGA didn't nominate Ray last year, while they did nominate LOTR two out of the three times, so I put King Kong there. Both it and Walk the Line can get a big boost here, whichever one gets the last spot. It could also go to A History of Violence or The Constant Gardener. A more competitive category for nominations than original screenplay.

SAG Ensemble
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line

alt: Munich or A History of Violence

The Squid and the Whale is a very "Station Agent" choice.

Cinderella Man

The Family Stone deserves this Ensemble nom (I know it probably doesn't have a chance). Same for Sin City.

Wow, Woody Allen has got 18 WGA noms in his career! Did anyone ever get more?

He won four times.

I actually think he might win WGA this year again.

Sin City would look good in this group. It's really a shame that it's not being recognized because of it's April release.

Maybe, personally I think Sin City had huge strengths (Willis, Rorke) but some major weaknesses (Madsen in his cameo, Del Toro, and even Owen somewhat). It was very stylized and the performances are kind of difficult. Definately wouldn't mind it up there though.

I need to get the new DVD. *argh*.

I think A History will score better in individual noms.

You know, nobody's talking about Robert Patrick, who I really enjoyed as Cash Sr. in Walk the Line.

I think Walk the Line is likely to miss here. Ray got in because the supporting women in Ray's life received a lot of praises too, while the accolade for Walk the Line seems to be focusing on the lead pair.

SAG Ensemble nominees last year were quite ridiculous though, as the top 6 films all made it, as if they were afraid to not match the oscar BP lineup.

Would you replace it with A History of Violence?

For me, I will keep Walk the Line. Two sure bet nominees and overall a pretty strong supporting cast. Yeah, it doesn't have the women of Ray (I like this film more every time I watch it) and the same umph, but like you said, I think they might be afraid to veer too far away from the final five Oscar nominees.

Ahhh, if Memoirs hadn't failed, it would be a lock for SAG ensemble with 4 Asian stars.

Either one of your alternatives.

Hehe, I remember how andaroo and I both waited for the Best Enesmble noms to be out since they are quite an indicator for Best Picture noms, in order to decide our Ray/Hotel Rwanda argument...and then we got both, heh.

Now that all the hype dies down, I'm actually looking forward to go seeing it without having to think that I'm "watching it for its Oscar potential". So it's a plus for me. I think it opens this weekend.

That was the cruelest thing that has ever happened on this board.

We were so hyped and then... haha

You know...it actually is the same for me. I am looking forward to it more now actually.