1. I didn't learn this this weekend but I've been a shitty predictor all year. Damn, have I been shitty!

2. The Producers is dead, it is getting mediocre to shitty reviews.

3. Munich is hurting and is not as good as everyone hoped but not bad enough to be out of the running.

4. Brokeback Mountain is a big contendor, with a lot of issues, which is different from the others which are big contendors with out a lot of love... except for...

5. King Kong, which is now a major player, could be one of the best reviewed films of the year, and could even, in fact, get Jackson nominated for director for a 3rd time in 5 years.

6. Match Point and The New World are pretty much lost at this point.

7. Kong is stealing Walk the Line's "people's choice" momentum and the performances aren't appearing to stand out... and it missed AFI... this could spell trouble for its lock status.

8. Despite my hatred (or probably becasue of my hatred of it) Crash is winging its way towards the nominations table and is in a great position to dethrone Good Night or Walk the Line. Crash is in a great position to take the drama Golden Globe nomination.

9. I learned nothing about Good Night this week except it's still "in there" but it always seems to be in there with at least Brokeback and Capote and sometimes Crash... meaning that these are competing in some degree against each other.

10. Geisha did a nose dive into hell so quick that people like the BFCA didn't realize it! Sony is the big loser in the race this year.

11. People really liked A History of Violence, and while it's chances are slim to none, I'm glad to see it moving about at the end of the year to an extent.

12. Virgin has a real shot at a Golden Globe.

Love the trademark, why isnt this on the Oscar site?

Why not post it in the Oscar section and call andaroo a contributor? The more content, the merrier.

Roo knows his Oscars.

Not everyone, as I warned people about handing out nominations and awards to a movie that was never seen from the start.

Well... I think everyone hoped it would be good, I mean, why wouldn't we? I hope everything will be good.

I didn't. I stated that I wished the film would die a ghastly death.

It's ending up even worse: it won't be dead; it will be in a coma

Well... Box doesn't count as a person.

I would think "entity of the void" is a better discription

The same could be said about you and WTL. A film that's been largely forgotten in terms of BP.

Yeah, well When the Squid and the Whale comes up for Best Picture, I'll start thinking that a small group of mostly insignificant film critics have any influence over what the academy will pick.

Walk the Line is in a funk right now, it's hard to deny that.

Still, being that there are like only 7 films worthy of being nominated, its chances are still pretty outstanding. Plus it's pretty much got the Globe already.

You're missing my point.

I'm just saying you brought into the WTL hype largely beforehand, the same for other people and Munich.

Let's not forget that Munich is 0% at RT right now with 0 reviews. It could very well be a few odd ducks now and a completely different critical response later.

That's very true but, em

I love you Box. Always remember this.

Yes, but I only started calling it the frontrunner after it was seen, not before it was when other films had been seen. The people that were doing that with Munich were handing out awards before it was even finished being filmed.

So, what are the seven films, andaroo?

Munich, Brokeback Mountain, King Kong, Walk the Line, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, and Capote?

I still think Match Point has a shot. Or, I want to think it has a shot.

To me there are 8

01 Brokeback Mountain
02 Munich
03 King Kong
04 Walk the Line
05 Good Night and Good Luck

06 Capote
07 Crash
08 Cinderella Man

hehehe the "C" section.

If any director who's picture doesn't have a chance squeezes in it will probably be Cronenberg.

I'm pretty confident with a Clooney director nomination.

Cinderella Man doesn't have a shot.

That'd give us 3 Universals (I still kind of think Brokeback is one, though). In '02, at least The Hours was "co-pushed" by Paramount.

I pretty much agree... but it's not dead quite yet, just as Kong isn't quite a lock yet. The weekend worked in its favor a bit.

Munich is copushed by Dreamworks (which is now Paramount).

Off topic but Yours Mine and Ours opening credits cracked me up last night.

They literally showed the mountain (Paramount), the lion (MGM), the gal (Columbia) and whatever the fuck Nickelodeon's logo is. It went on for 15 minutes.

Those are the 7. Everything else is a very long shot at the moment. Match Point is the one that needs the critic support the most, and it isn't getting any mentions so far.

Match Point is coming out a bit too late. However, remember - it wasn't eligble, apparently, for AFI's list since it was made in England.

I do think it will be on NBR's list, though. Someone posted this at Oscar Watch:

Agreed, and number 8 is probably my fault, I was so hpoing Crsah woudl be forgotten by now, but I am being spited. If Crash gets in isnted of A History of Violence or Good Night and Good Luck, or any other film made this year I am going to be very unhappy.

But outsiders don't necessarily know it's ineligible, and that causes the perception of it being snubbed everywhere. I think the biggest strike against it so far is the complete omission from BFCA, which is much more relevant than AFI. Maybe not all critics who belongs to BFCA have seen it. Still, the perception is not good, and it desperately needs GG, NYFCA, and NBR.

If Kong shows up on the NBR, Jackson needs to get fitted for a new, slimming tux.