Okay, i searched and found a sure-fire winner thread Goldie ran, but I don't really know who will win yet. If we have a sure-fire nom thread I missed, please merge, thanks.

After all the early awards, it seems to me there are some definate nomination locks. I'm so sure of these, that there is no way they will not be on the list. Taking into acount buzz, reviews, nominations, politics, box office energy, and everything else.

They all come from the same movie, Capote

Its going to be up there for a bp nom
Hoffman will be a best actor nom (even the winner)
and Keener will be there for best supporting actress. They are the only sure-fire ones for me right now.

Amy Adams is close, but I still worry about how incredibly *small" Junebug was, so i won't put her up there just yet.

I don't think anything is "sure-fire" really.

Everyone has these little 'lock lists' and one could end up not being a lock.

I don't see Capote being close to BP, personally.

Just like I don't see Amy Adams being close to a lock.

I think Kong is the only thing I'd personally call a lock right now.

So my Lock Predicts:

BP
1. King Kong.

Erm...to me:

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain

Best Director:
George Clooney

Best Actress:
Reese Witherspoon

Best Actor:
Phillip Seymour-Hoffman
Joaquin Phoenix

Hehe, of all the possible sure-fire nominees, Dolce successfully picked some of those which are definitely not sure-fire.


Nominations locks are:

Best Picture:

Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
Good Night, and Good Luck


Best Actor:

Joaquin Phoenix
Heath Ledger
Philip Seymour Hoffman


Best Actress:

Keira Knightley
Reese Witherspoon


Best Supporting Actress:

Michelle Williams
Amy Adams
Diane Keaton


Best Director:

Ang Lee

Amy Adams needed critc support and that's exactly what she's getting. I think it will be enough to get some notice for her, but I'll never understand the decision to release the DVD for Junebug on January 17th instead of a month sooner. Was it because they wanted to rake in 5 or 10 more dollars at the box office?

GNGL will not get a Best Picture nomination without a Best Director nomination.

...I also don't think any of your locks for Supporting Actress are, well, locks. There's two Munich girls, there's MacLaine, there's Weisz, there's Johannson, there's Bello, and there's Keener.

Amy Adams is already getting enough support and considering that Johansson and Li are getting weaker with each day, her chances are improving.

Uh, we agreed on Hoffman! He's not only been nominated in all the early awards, he's won them! Capote still has enough legs on it too, due to its very limited expansion. It could go another wayve after the holiday splurge dies down. Good Night and Good Luck opened and is on the way out. I think its timing is unfortunate, as it just comprimised what otherwise would have been a handful of guarantees. Now Syriana is moving into the picture, and I thought it would reinvigorate GNABL's run, but its hasn't. It will be out of theatres by nomination time, while Caopte will probably still be in 30-50.



Close, but I won't give it a lock yet until I see how it holds up under expansion. Could be out of theatres in a matter or weeks if it doesn't expand smartly, and then its chances are over.



Neither has gotten that much buzz in early awards. Crash has gotten more.




Hoffman? Yes. Ledger, close but just as above, I'm waiting to see how Brokeback holds up over the next two or three weeks. Phoenix is the shakiest for me at this point. I thought it was a given, but it seems people were warmer to Reese's performance, and the buzz over Line is fading. But yeah, I'll agree with you its more sure-fire at this point than even Ledger.




See, I must be the only one who doesn't see this one happening. I just don't feel like there is any place to nominate her (despite what was a good performance) for the umpteenth remake of this movie. She's gotten some early nods, so you may be right, and as Mrs. Henderson presents seems to be doing poorly, there goes even one more competitor for the position. She may get through under the raw fact there really haven't been 5 performances this year for lead women!



True.




I am waiting on Williams, just like bp, just like Ledger. I want to see how brokeback is taken up outside of NY and LA before saying how it will do in the Oscars. Family Stone is not being reviewed that well, and the cast may be so ensemble that not one of them stands out more than the others. This is like an Altman film, or even Crash. Equal screentime often bites a performances chances, so I don't think she's a sure fire nominee at all. Adams, I'd love to say yes, but just can't. The movie made two bucks in theatres, and finished its run ages ago. She has momentum, but not a sure thing.


[/quote]

Same as all the others. Also, Lee is quite the darling of Oscars with enough nominations under his belt for Sense & Sensibility, and Crouching Tiger, he may get the same treatment Speilberg, Jackson, and any other big name to walk through recently.

GNGL has a bigger box-office mostly equally good reviews and Clooney behind it and it is also getting more support so far. I don't see both getting nominated and GNGL sounds like a much more certain guess. I really don't see Capote sneaking in. And you even go as far as saying that it's a lock...




I am probably the biggest anti-Brkeback Mountain poster on the boards here, but the amount of praise and recognition it is getting this year has yet to be matched. There is virtually no chance for it not to be nominated. At all.




GNGL has still more going for it than Crash. Walk the Line....I don't know, it has a bigger box-office than Ray and two big acting noms instead of one. It won't win, but should not miss out on a nom.






These three are simply locks, IMO. All three are getting mentioned everywhere. Ledger simply can't miss out with BM being a huge contender that it is.






Knightley is getting a lot of support and acclaim and frankly the category is weak this year, especially with Ziyi being out of the race now.





I have seen The Family Stone earlier today and there is no way Keaton will not get a nom for this one, really. The category is weak this year, really weak, especially with Gong Li slowly vanishing. Adams is getting more support than anyone in it so far, she should be la lock.

It's a lock because the box office will be helped by all the publicity it's getting. There is simply no way it's going to be out of theaters in a month, let alone a matter of weeks. It's as a lock as it gets.




Both are getting what's expected out of the awards so far, and I think their status is unchanged. I agree they are not locks yet if we are really strict about the definition of "lock".



All three are locks.




No one in BSA is a lock yet, IMO.



Ang is a locked lock, even more so than the picture. Lee isn't a darling of Oscars. Actually, I'd argue Oscar owed him since they snubbed him for Sense & Sensibility and robbed him of a win for CTHD after he won DGA. There is no possible reason for him to be ignored.

I remember being very very happy about Lee's snub for CTHD.

He's a lock for at leasta nom this time around.


As for BSA, I think that at this point the category is so weak that certain players getting a lot of recognitions are simply turning into locks....Amy Adams being a perfect example of that.

No one has seen Junebug except for critics, really (what's it grossed overall? $2m?). More people will have seen Match Point by the time the ballots are due.

And, I don't see how Johansson's chances are getting any weaker just because Match Point isn't getting on any (current) lists. Also, none of her 3 GG nominations have translated into Oscar noms. I think voters will remember this. Finally, she can't be put in the same sentence as Li, because at least Match Point isn't dipping below 50% on RT.

You haven't justified Keaton or Williams yet, either. Why them over the other six that I mentioned?

I think you're calling Keaton a lock based on your own viewing of the film (and some of the reviews you've read - if you've even read them!). That's not exactly the way to identify a "sure-fire" lock, is it? Has she been on any lists?! I think she'll get in, but she definitely isn't a sure-fire lock at this point.

Surprisingly, half that 2 million for Junebug comes from people on this site. I can think of a good five or six people off the top of my head who have seen it here. But yes, 2 million is too small to be assured of anything.



OUCH. That hurt...

Well, I was fumed.



I'd say she needs more mentions to reach lock status. It's possible, although very unlikely, that her name won't appear on any award lists again. A few more weeks, she could become a lock.

On the other hand, for a film like BBM, there is no way that it isn't going to be nominated for GG or NBR, so I already take that into consideration and can declare it a lock now.

I think we have different definitions of the lock status then. Anything can happen from now on. Munich might miss out on Best Picture still. I just think it is very very unlikely. And frankly I see little competition for BSA, probably the weakest category this year.

Remember Thirteen? It had unimpressive box-office, early release date and worse reviews and still garnered Hunter a nom. So why not Junebug which has started off with critics at least as well as Thirteen?

Williams is getting tons and tons of mentions so far, more than anyone else in the category, maybe except for Adams. Also, Brokeback Mountain is getting more praise than any other movie in contention and considering its status, it should assure most of the actors in it noms. Just like The Aviator got Alda nominated last year, only that Williams is already getting more mentions than him.

Keaton...based on what I have seen of her performance which is more showy and Oscar-baity than what she has delivered in SGG. She is just THAT good.



Plus: You are biased for Johansson

CAN PEOPLE PLEASE STOP USING THE WORD "GARNERED"?!?!?!? You're dumbing the word down by using it every day.

Remember, Lecter, we're talking about "sure-fire" locks. That means, to me, that even if Cheaper by the Dozen 2 gets 100% on RT with a 10/10 rating, these films/actors won't get passed over. I don't remember Thirteen, but I'm sure Hunter was NOT a lock. And, um, it grossed over $4m in the fall, right? With some media coverage, too. Junebug was silent silent silent silent. I think.


That's great. The Oscars don't owe anything to Williams, though (Alda was like 70+, had been in tons of films with no nominations. Plus, he was in MASH!). I think she'll make it, but I won't be suprised if she misses out to a Keaton, Johansson, Bello, Munich girl, and Adams/Weisz line-up.


Yeah, and I thought Kirsten Dunst was showy and Oscar-baity in Bring It On. She was just THAT good. But she didn't get no Oscar nomination, did she?


You singled Johansson out from my post. My bias has nothing to do with my ability to tell you that these actresses aren't locks, even if they might make it.

But, btw, Johansson's pretty showy and Oscar-baity in Match Point and she's supposedly THAT good. So, why does Keaton get "sure-fire" lock status, especially considering that The Family Stone has a shot in nothing else (oh, maybe Song? If there is one? But that's not saying much, as Motorcycle Diaries won last year) and Match Point does. I agree that Keaton has a better chance, because I know the Oscar's history with her, but I don't see what makes her "sure-fire" when these other actresses aren't (Bello, Weisz, Johansson, etc etc etc).

I can think of at least 4 people here at the forums that have, including me.

You guys aren't voting for Oscars.

I think the fact that 5-6 people have seen Junebug on this site is a sign that we need a MOST POWERFUL POSTER award.

Seriously, how many would've seen it had Libs not raved?

Considering that Amy Adams was getting raved about left and right, I'd say that some of us would have seen it, and it doesn't matter if we vote. Do you seriously think academy voters don't like those types of films? You haven't been paying attention if you haven't noticed that they do.

I don't even know what Junebug is. When did it come out?

August 3rd, I think.

It's a very small film but her performance is easily one of the best this year. Noticeably.

Box,

http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... ht=junebug

Also I passed in a full review on it (main site and thread) and there is a thread on it in which, I believe, Dkmuto, Raffiki, Mav, Libs and jmart007 also discussed their thoughts on it.

Ah, great, it annoys you when this word is used. Thanks for letting me know so now I can use it in about evry single phrase talking to you. : )

Hunter was not a lock, but she was also not getting as much praise as Adams does and the category in that year has not been as weak as this year. The End!





And the Oscars owe a lot to Giamatti, does that mean he got nominated last year? Williams performance is strong enough that if Brokeback Mountain sweeps the noms, she will be among them.




Well, you are stupid then. : )




The difference is that I have actually seen The Family Stone. I don't need the reviews to tell me that a role like this is Oscar-bait. Before seeing the movie I had her at #4 of the likelyhood for a nomination, afetrwards at #1 or #2.

Also, did SGG have much of a shot in anything else other than Best Actress? Did that hurt Keaton from getting nominated and being one of the frontrunners along with Theron and Watts?

Keira Knightley and Reese Witherspoon for Best Actress.
Munich and Walk the Line for Best Picture
Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor