Don't quote me on this, guys, but the word over at OscarWatch is that Brokeback just won.

any idea what LAFCA stands for > guessing Los Angeles.........?...........

Which would be a surprise to....pretty much nobody.

I hope they toss Match Point or Constant Gardener a runner-up slot, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Picture: Brokeback Mountain (over A History of Violence)
Director: Ang Lee (over David Cronenberg)
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (over Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain)
Actress: Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone (over Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, for four films (Capote, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, The Interpreter), over Amy Adams of Junebug
Supporting Actor: William Hurt, A History of Violence (over Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck)
Screenplay: Dan Futterman, Capote (over Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale)
Cinematography: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck (over 2046)
Production Design: 2046 (over Good Night, and Good Luck)
Music: Joe Hisaishi, Howl's Moving Castle
New Generation Award: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Documentary: Werner Herzog's Grizzly Man (over Alex Gibney's Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room)
Animated Feature: Wallce + Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Foreign Film: Michael Haneke's Cachet (over 2046).

EDIT

Looks like Box beat me.

Munich was eliminated early in the voting round. Their process is similar to voting for Olympic host, where each round the one with the fewest number of votes gets eliminated.

Lots of HISTORY OF VIOLENCE support.

Interesting, very interesting.

They clearly wish to push Brokeback and especially A History to the forefront and give them some attention.

BBM obviously benefits the most. Good support for Capote. If Judi Dench can get a runner-up with L.A. critics, it means the performance has real meat instead of just being Oscar bait, so I think her chance at a nomination is still good.

They like 2046 a lot. And another good news for Amy Adams.

and Syriana? also for William Hurt ?????????

Nothing for Walk the Line, not even a runner-up for Reese. Probably doesn't mean much.

when you say "over so-and-so" do you mean that there were only two nominees? I don't get it.

Yeah, it was definitely BBM's night. I swear, this weekend could really go down in history if BBM keeps gaining this momentum. Also, A History of Violence and Capote both seem like they have better chances at BP now then say Memoirs of a Geisha or Match Point.

Any movie has a better chance at best picture than Memoirs does at the moment.

A History of Violence still basically has no shot, not when Focus has BBM to focus on and not when BBM will beat it at both box office and critic awards. Capote is indeed lurking around and among the short list of films that competes for the last couple of spots.

GNAGL and Match Point's best shot is with NYFCA given the subject matter for GNAGL and Woody Allen for Match Point.

It seems Munich is unlikely to win many critic groups.

A History of Violence is New Line, not Focus.

Oops, sorry. Braindead. I automatically assumed it's Focus since it didn't expand to take advantage at the box office.

I did not expect Munich to win many critics groups, but I don;t think it neesd to get nomination. The smaller indie films need these wins more.

From what i hear Munich is getiing very mixed reviews,it looks like this will be the film that will divide the most and that will hurt it a lot.

<b>Actress: Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone (over Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents)</b>

Congratulations to Vera Farmiga. Vera is also the female lead in Scorsese's The Departed.

Wow. Very interesting choices.

I'd like to note on several things...

--While I agree Violence still has no shot whatsoever at any major awards, this at least brings William Hurt back up to consideration and David Cronberg as a slightly possible contender for the Director slot with no Pic nod.

--I was going to note earlier, but had forgotten: Ledger seems to be rivaling Joaquin in raves and might trump him in the coming months. Nothing at all for Walk the Line is not altogether surprising for me being of the weakest in most films that are in contention for big awards. time is a passin and Walk the Line is standing still. IT will be lucky if its existing buzz gets overshadowed (although that will make it easier to predict the top 5)

--I guess Judi Dench does have some early backing

--I always thought Amy Adams was among the top cintenders for Supporting Actress. Throughout the ENTIRE season and in almost any full-length Oscar preview or predictions Amy Adams was mentioned as being worthy but too small, too small, too small, too small, too small... all those montions, however, kept her name alive. IF she misses out now, it's because too many people already talked her up and killed her in the process.

--This was the big push Good Night, and Good Luck needed and it didn't quite get it. It definitely helps that it won 2 because that shows a good amount of support from the bottom up but I was hoping a win because it would solidify it's slot in the top 5 for the moment (with Geisha fading out of view)

--I still see Munich winning, even with the somewhat split reaction going around now. If by the time of its release, the divide has become thicker, then its chances will have (much to my joy) decreased quite alot making the race all the more interesting. So, if that happens, I think Brokeback may actually have a chance to win. I can't believe how far this film has already gone! If it wins NY and gets the NBR #1, I think that will be a hard act to challenge.

This has really been a big year for Keener, and she will go through to an oscar nom for her support in Capote. Ever since Lovely and Amazing people have wondered why she hasn't quite become an A-list star. Might change this year. Congrats to Adams, such a small film, all these noms alone really are a testament to her work. Its a name that comes up consistently despite a 2 million dollar box office run. She will get a nom as well.



w00t! Maybe Hurt isn't out of the BSA category yet at all! If anything, he probably has one of the best chances of anyone in the cast at this point, right?



Proper pick, as far as I'm concerned. 2046 was great, but a bit old-hat for Wong Kar-Wai. I haven't seen something like GNAGL stylisitically in quite some time. But both are actually smart nominee selections.



Yeah. This is where I would throw support behind 2046 as well.



Grizzly is out of the Oscars, but this bodes well for Enron being that unknown fifth slot.

Plus Phoenix has to voercome the actor playing a muscian winning tow years in a row thing, some voters are goign ot be reluctant to vote for him for that reason, and his buzz has dyed down considerably. Ledger is coming on strong now, when it counts.

Munich needs to get a few critic mentions, at least runner-ups, to be positioned to win. It can't keep getting shut out of everything as it did with L.A.

BTW, the screenplay is actually a tie.

I agree I could very well see the best actor race comes down to Hoffman and Ledger. BBM simply had a perfect release schedule.

With Gong Li getting hurt by her movie's reception, it really opens the window for Amy Adams and Keener.

Does this mean Strathairn is pretty much out of the running?