Original

Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night. And, Good Luck - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid & The Whale - Noah Baumbach
The Family Stone - Thomas Bezucha
Mrs. Henderson Presents - Martin Sherman
The New World - Terence Malick
Hustle & Flow - Craig Brewer

Adapted
Munich - Tony Kushner
Walk The Line - Gill Dennis & James Mangold
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Memoirs of a Geisha - Robin Swicord
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History Of Violence - Josh Olson
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan
The Producers - Mel Brooks, Thomas Meehan
Breakfast On Pluto - Neil Jordan
King Kong - Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson

Original is between GLGN and Match Point, with Allen's screenplay taking the late season momentum.

Adapted is a bit wider. Munich of course, along with Brokeback and Memoirs.

- did Crash come out too early?

- No love for Walk te LIne?

Crash has little chance of winning IMO, but a nomination is likely.

WTL, like Crash, will likely be nominated but a win isn't in the cards.

Crash can get nominated, but to win is kind of iffy. If it can pull up an Eternal Sunshine (early release yet swept up the critics awards pretty much), it would take a miracle. As loyal said, it's between Match Point and GNAGL.

Good Night and good luck will probably win. It is the one most likely to get a Best Picture nomination.

Munich will win adapted (maybe?) although this may be a place where Brokeback Mountain can win (I didn't even have it on my charts, but everyone talks about how well it was adapted from the short story).

See, that's the real battle of the night, Good Luck Vs Match Point (maybe it's the screenwriter in me talking).

I do believe Allen's mystique trumps Clooney's wunderkind.

Now, we could be looking at a Polanski type of situation (literally) where Allen picks up a nod and a win in the Best Director category, instead of a Screenplay win, which would then be Clooney's sole win from his multiple nominations.

Yeah, the screenwriting categories (since they usually represent great movies) are always the most interesting.


If Clooney gets a Director nod and a BP nod then I would say it's Good Night's to lose.


I don't see this really being a split year and Allen is still iffy on Director IMO.

and looking at Poland's picks to show the screenplays - his comments are at his web-site.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... nplay.html

seems that there aren't many changes.

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[table][row]Now[col]Previous[col]Original Screenplay[row]1[col]1[col]Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco[row]2[col]2[col]Good Night. And, Good Luck - George Clooney, Grant Heslov[row]3[col]3[col]Match Point - Woody Allen[row]4[col]5[col]The Family Stone - Thomas Bezucha [row]5[col]4[col]The Squid & The Whale - Noah Baumbach[row]6[col]6[col]Mrs. Henderson Presents - Martin Sherman [row]7[col]7[col]Hustle & Flow - Craig Brewer[row]8[col]8[col]The New World - Terence Malick[row][col][col][row]Now[col]Previous[col]Adapted Screenplay[row]1[col]1[col]Munich - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth[row]2[col]2[col]Walk The Line - Gill Dennis & James Mangold[row]3[col]3[col]Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana[row]4[col]6[col]The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine[row]5[col]11[col]King Kong - Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson[row]5[col]4[col]Capote - Dan Futterman [row]7[col]7[col]Syriana - Stephen Gaghan[row]8[col]6[col]Memoirs of a Geisha - Robin Swicord [row]9[col]8[col]A History Of Violence - Josh Olson[row]10[col]9[col]Breakfast On Pluto - Neil Jordan[row]11[col]10[col]The Producers - Mel Brooks, Thomas Meehan[/table]

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