As the other Big Oscar categories have an individual thread - what are your Best Picture Nomination Predictions - 2005

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I'm so lost now with Memoirs. Ask me again next week

01 Walk the Line
02 Brokeback Mountain
03 Munich
04 Good Night, and Good Luck.
05 Memoirs of a Geisha/King Kong/The New World

If theoretically... Memoirs gets under 70% at RT and the reviews for Kong keep up I would switch to:

01 Walk the Line
02 Brokeback Mountain
03 Munich
04 Good Night, and Good Luck.
05 King Kong

In this senario, I think it's possible that Kong grabs the BP nomination and Malick gets a Director nod.

Hmm...

Good Night, and Good Luck
King Kong
Match Point
Munich
Walk The Line

Match Point could be switched out for Memoirs. I'm not convinced at the chances for either Brokeback Mountain or The New World.

Munich
Walk The Line
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of A Geisha

I think those first three are pretty much locks. The last two, not so much.

01.The New World
02.Munich
03.Brokeback Mountain
04.Walk the Line
05.Memoirs of a Geisha/Crash/Good Night, and Good Luck

Munich
Memoirs
Walk the Line
Good Night...
Brokeback Mountain/The New World

King Kong - token mass appeal movie
Munich - token serious deep movie
Walk the Line - token americana movie, also fills the liberal niche in a less obvious way than other contenders.
Pride and Prejudice - token brit movie
Geisha - token diversity

Just how it looks to me at this time.

do token smaller films ever warrant a nom? Maybe replacing one of your categories > #5?

Good Night, and Good Luck or Match Point

Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
Munich

Then it becomes a little foggy. I'm no longer sure of a Memoirs nomination.

Heh I'm not one of the oscar experts around here, I just gave my sense of things. I didn't even watch the show last year so take all this with a grain of salt.

His Pride and Prejudice fill that slot.

The funny thing is a lot of people claim this year is one of the foggiest races but we do seem to have three movies consistently showing up in predictions: Walk The Line, Munich, and Brokeback.

It's the final two that are iffy.

Memoirs is getting nominated. Doubtlessly.

Munich is gonna need an opening PTA of about 2k and less than 20 percent RT to miss out.

Walk The Line is defly a defly, too.

I wanna go GNAGL and Kong for the next too, with Match/World/Brokeback as possibilities.

So final (until external forces prove me wrong):

Memoirs
Munich
Line
Night
Brokeback/Kong/World/Match (in that order)

By this time last year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Hotel Rwanda)

By this time the previous year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Cold Mountain)

This year is quite a bit foggier.

Munich
Walk The Line
Brokeback Mountain
Match Point
Pride and Prejudice/The New World/Goodnight and Good Luck

I don't think the reviews for Geisha will improve unfortunately. I'm just not feeling King Kong.

Walk the Line
The New World
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich

Munich
Walk the Line
The New World
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Brokeback Mountain / King Kong / Pride and Prejudice / Memoirs of the Geisha

I really don't think this year is that foggy at all...

The main 6 players, I'm almost 100% sure of, are...

Munich
Memoirs
Walk the Line
The New World
Good Night, and Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain

The only ones that can possibly sneak in, but have low chances are Match Point and Cinerella Man and to a much lesser extent, Syriana.

I said before that I didn't think King Kong would end up with a nom but would be a bigger contender than most thought. I'm actualy retracting that now. Of course, we'll have to wait another 10 days to really see, but I think it's pretty weak and the pre-release buzz is all over the the other contenders, so... I don't think this year is that murky at all. It's just that it's such a weak list of contenders and the ones that are really strong have something wrong with them (too small, cultural backlash, late release) that it just makes it harder to pinpoint.

Munich
Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
King Kong or The New World < replacing Memoirs of the Geisha
Good Night and Good Luck or Match Point or Pride & Prejudice

Agreed on BM, and especially TNW, where is allt he oscar love for this film coming from? BM has gotten good reviews, but its still an uphill battle.

Syriana could sneak in with enough buzz, Gaghan previous work was Traffic which was well liked. I think Syriana may make instea d of GDaGL.

Ebert was asked why the talk for Bp seems so quite and he said "We're waiting for Munich.' Honestly, Mnich is such a huge frontrunner, if this movie is any good its going be impossible to beat.

I kind of agree that these three seem safe... for now:

Munich
Walk the line
Brokeback mountain

Then It gets more difficult. I used to think "Memoirs" has Oscar written all over it... It definitely looks like a completely Oscar-y movie. But with the reviews that are out right now, I´m not so sure. If it fails,´apparently "The new world" could take the spot.

Then It gets even more difficult. A blockbuster could be nominated... like Kong, or The producers. I think they will feel better nominating a musical like "Producers" and showing some love to Mel Brooks, but the movie needs to be a big hit... which It could be. I donnot see a little black and white film like "Good night and good luck" nominated, but I do see a nomination for George Clooney as best director.

So right now, it would be

1. Munich
2. Walk the line
3. Brokeback mountain
4. Memoirs/The new world
5. Producers/King Kong

But what I´d like is "Crash" doing a big comeback, or "Match point" getting nominated. Both things would surprise -and delight - me.

was this Ebert talk on tonight's show.

. Munich
. Good Night and Good Luck
. Brokeback Mountain
. Walk the Line
. Match Point

No hopefuls, thats exactly how it's gonna be

Munich
Walk the Line
Brokeback
The New World
King Kong

Looking the posts above, here is a quick summary

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[table][row]MOST MENTIONS[row]Munich [row]Walk the Line [row]Brokeback Mountain [row]Good Night, and Good Luck. [row]PRETTY MUCH 3 WAY TIE IN MENTIONS FOR 5TH PLACE[row]King Kong [row]Memoirs of the Geisha[row]The New World [row]*******************************************************[row]Match Point [row]Pride and Prejudice[row]Producers[row]Crash[row]TO LEAST MENTIONS[/table]

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