Can you Name any 100% Guaranteed Sure-Bet OSCAR WINNERS!!!!!

March of the Penguins will win Best Doc.

Memoirs of a Geisha will win Best Costumes.

Well its a big one, but Reese Witherspoon is like 95% certain for BA if shes surely pushed that way instead of supporting, which she will be.

Walk the Line will 100% win best pic.

No, not really.

Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix will both win for Walk the Line.

March of the Penguins will win for best documentary.

Corpse Bride will win best animated.

Paul Haggis will win best original screenplay for Crash.

None of Maverikk's statements are 100% locks.
Actually, Reese is pretty damn close!

Corpse Bride and Penguins would be the "safest" bets now, but in no way guaranteed.


I agree with andaroo... Costume Design for Geisha is pretty close; just as close as Reese, and that's the closest we're gonna get for another month!

Walk the Line will 100% not be winning best picture.

Even though I think if there is a lock for a NOMINATION, that would be it. But no win.

LOL. Always had the same thoughts.
Pretty locked up for a nod but NO chance at winning!
Then again, if Munich AND Memoirs really screw up, what's left?

Why will Corpse Bride beat Walace and Gromit? Because it wont...

I think right now Witherspoon is probably the closest to a win 'lock' there is.

Besides W&G and MotP.

Just curious about why? Please don't say it's because Ray didn't win.

Reese and MotP I'll pretty much give to you, but Phoenix and Corpse Bride are not at all. Pheonix is a)A bit overshadowed by Reese, and b) Has received a bit of criticism for his singing chops. Hes still narrowly the #1 contender probably, but Hoffman, Ledger, Bana, Straitharn, Mortensen are *that* close. Corpse Bride 97% won't win. W&G has that in the bag.

And for the record I think Crash has a better shot at winning than WTL.

Maybe but first Crash has to get nominated. Did it come out too early in the year?

Yes I know. Crash probably will have a tough time getting a nom, but if it gets in it has a better shot IMO.

That's just the insanity speaking, though.

I think Gromit or Bride will win. I however, wouldn't count anything out.

Bride wasn't necessarily loved, whereas Gromit was loved and wasn't necessarily overly successful.

Cause Cold Miner's Daughter didn't win Hehe, no. But biopics in like these in generally not best picture winners. Often they're very good driven by their performances, but not good ENOUGH. And judging by the reviews (although they're not always everything) this doesn't really look to be any different. Do you honestly think people will watch this movie and think it is not only great, but THE best movie of the year?

Again, you shouldn't completely base a movie's chances based on history, but biopics that win are usually those of people who had some kind of pimpact on the world. On history, not just pop culture (Gandhi, The Last Emperor, Schindler's List). In fact, I can't think of a biopic that won from a person who was just...famous, regardless of how well they are regarded, regardless of how interesting or inspiring their lives were, and regardless of how well made the movie was, and regardless of well regarded of a figure they were. Maybe someone can point out an example?

@Raffiki: Brokeback Mountain? I know people say that a lot of people will not react very positively to it, but again, they forget you don't even need a majority of votes to win best picture. If those who do like it, love it, it has a better chance than universally praised film that not very many people would list as their favorite. I really do think that will be the case, but you can't predict how other films will be received. I don't think Memoirs of a Geisha will be as huge as some are hoping it will be, or think it will be, but that's cimply speculation and nothing else...and I really have no information to base my thoughts on that particular film right now. Munich could go either way, we really don't know anything about it. Just based on the people working on it and the premise you would think its the kind of film that would do really well...but will it actually deliver on that potential and be THAT good? As a movie with high expectations, it could also work against it if it's not as good as people were hoping for, even in the slightest way.

I think the big question mark this year, though, is The New World. A lot of people are dismissing it but there's really no reason to believe that it will be bad, and if it isn't, it's the PERFECT Oscar type film. So at this point the big contenders for the win, I think are The New World, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs has a chance but again I personally don't think it will happen, and Munich. If we didn't know anything about Brokeback, I think Crash would have a chance if all films dissapointed, but at this point I think it's safe to say that if unfortunately ALL three films didn't live up to expectations, Mountain would beat Crash.

So the only reason I have Brokeback as the frontrunner is because we ahve some information on it. Now all there is to do is wait to see if Munich, Memoirs, or World are better/better received than Mountain. I think it has set the bar pretty high, though. Time will tell.

My predictions:
1. Brokeback Mountain for sure
2. Walk the Line for sure
3. Crash or Good Nigh and Good Luck OR Capote
4/5 Memoirs of a Geisha, New World, Munich (2 of the 3)

The only problem is that there is no comedy/light-hearted/feel-good movie in there. The Producers or Rent would fill in that slot nicely but I'm not particularly sure they will actually be good. The other movie to look out for is Three Burials.

Edit: Damn, I just realized I forgot Match Point.

hmm...
3. Crash OR Good Night and Good Luck OR Capote OR Match Point? ;P (I don't believe Capote has much of a chance at best picture anyway. )

The Last Emperor? A Beautiful Mind? Braveheart? Schindler's List? Amadeus? Gandhi? Chariots of Fire (well... kinda)?


Do people honestly think A Beautiful Mind was the best picture of 2001? Best Picture often does not mean "best movie of the year".

I think you are applying a very generic and broad definition to what you could consider a winner. It's likely that none of the films released for Best Picture this year will have any impact culturally... at all. Kind of like Chicago.


We have more information, solid information, on Good Night and Good Luck, Capote, A History of Violence and even Walk the Line than we have on Brokeback Mountain, to be quite honest

Yes, but as well reviewed as those movies are, you HONESTLY think any of them stand a chance when it actually comes to taking the trophy in March?

The only movies I can see taking the trophy is Munich, Walk the Line or Memoirs of a Geisha... in that order.

Brokeback will probably get it's nomination, but for whatever reason this country is not ready for this movie to have a Best Picture trophy. Don't make me spell it out, but that IS a factor in it's chance for gold, we all know how the world works. And frankly, if it gets a nomination, with it's undoubtably low box office numbers (competition, etc.), it will be a win for a film like this.

The academy is MUCH less liberal than people give it credit for.

Guys, financially successful though it was, I'm not entirely sure that March of the Penquins has the gravitas necessary to win Best Doc. It certainly has buzz though. I just wouldn't be able to call it a lock.

Wallace & Gromit has to be considered wildly out front. It didn't set the box office on fire, but its gross was roughly equal to that of Corpse Bride.

I dunno. Penguins is likely to be more successful than almost all of the Best Picture nominees. Seeing as how they didn't have a chance for F911, I don't see how they are going to pass up a chance to award Penguin's success.

Besides... it has really done wonders for the whole field.

Memoirs of a Geisha should be making sweet sweet love with the tech categories.

Do you guys think that King Kong is close to a lock in visual effects, or will the academy look to finally award a Star Wars prequel?

Also, along with best costume, I think Memoirs of a Geisha is locked for the best Make-up win.