I say March of the Penguins

nominees are:
Mad Hot Ballroom
The Aristocats
and more...

No way will the aristocats be nominated.

March of the penguins and Murderball are locks.

Enron: Smartest Guys in the Room
Mad Hot Ballroom
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Rock School

Alternate- Grizzly Man

(Sicko is coming out in '06, isn't it?)

Safe bets at the moment. I'm sure at least one from later in the year will sneak in, though, most likely in place of Rock School.

I think March of the Penguins is a lock. And maybe Murderball.

DK, do you know if there's a list somewhere of fall docs?

The academy is notorious for overlooking popular/'unimportant" docs. The winner is probably off the radar at this point.

I don't think the winner is off the radar. The winner is likely Murderball or Enron.

I do not however think that Enron, Mad Hot Ballroom, March, Murderball, Rock School or Grizzly Man will all be nominated. At least 2 nominations will go to films not on that list.

No March of the Penguins [-X shame on you....I guess

I just missed one.

I think Penguins will be nominated.

Its Murderball.

Enron is coming on the back end of alot of "activist" documentaries in the past two years. There have been a dozen of these from Outfoxed to F9/11, it'll get a nom because its a strong doc, but not the win.

Mad Hot Ballroom suffers for last years "save the kids" doc winner Born into Brothels. The two years previous saw Spellbound with a nom. The kids won't take it, though they will be nominated.

Penguins is penguins. If Microcosmos and Winged Migration didn't get it, this certainly won't. Its a nice doc, not a groundbreaking one.

School of Rock will not get nominated. It will long since have fallen from the collective memory. I'm sure there's one that hasn't been released yet that will take the final spot.

I only got maybe three Oscar predictions right last year, but Doc was one of them. Quadripleegic Rugby players that actually have personalities? Hands down the winner. I'm calling it now unless there's still an unforseen doc in the horizon I've never heard of.

Murderball will get a nomination. It might win.

I'm pretty sure Penguins will get a nomination. It has been a relative success. Winged Migration had success at the wrong time + foreign = I don't think made an impact until afterwards.

Enron gets "the smartar" nomination. It's not as unspecific as The Corporation, not quite as controvercial as something like Control Room, and Farhenheit 9/11 would have won... but...

I think Grizzly will get nominated because of Herzog. But I'm not sure.

The fifth will probably be about some small historical drama.

Documentary winner hasn't been hard to predict over the last three years

I've been searching to find what documentaries have created a buzz that we haven't already talked about. I'm not sure if all these docs are eligible.

AFTER INNOCENCE (Director: Jessica Sanders) - A gripping, emotionally charged film that follows wrongfully convicted men freed by DNA evidence after decades in prison as they struggle to transition back into society.

THE DEVIL AND DANIEL JOHNSTON (Director: Jeff Feuerzeig) - Daniel Johnston, manic-depressivegenius singer/songwriter/artist, is revealed in this portrait of madness, creativity, and love.

THE EDUCATION OF SHELBY KNOX (Directors: Marion Lipschutz and Rose Rosenblatt) - A 15-year-old girl's transformation from conservative Southern Baptist to liberal Christian and ardent feminist parallels her fight for sex education and gay rights in Lubbock, Texas.

THE FALL OF FUJIMORI (Director: Ellen Perry) - President Alberto Fujimori risked everything to win Peru's war on terror, but in doing so became an international fugitive wanted for corruption, kidnapping, and murder.

FROZEN ANGELS (Directors: Eric Black and Frauke Sandig) - A scientific and social exploration of the future of human reproductive technology.

MARDI GRAS: MADE IN CHINA (Director: David Redmon) - This examination of cultural and economic globalization follows the life cycle of Mardi Gras beads from a small factory in Fuzhou, China, to Mardi Gras in New Orleans and to art galleries in New York City.

NEW YORK DOLL (Director: Greg Whiteley) - A recovering alcoholic and recently converted Mormon, Arthur “Killer” Kane, of the rock band The New York Dolls, is given a chance at reuniting with his band after 30 years.

RING OF FIRE: THE EMILE GRIFFITH STORY (Directors: Dan Klores and Ron Berger - A story of violence, love, sex, politics, and media, centered around the life of Griffith, a six-time world welterweight champion.

ROMÁNTICO (Director: Mark Becker) - A troubadour returns home to scratch out a living in Mexico after years of trying to get ahead in San Francisco.

SHAKESPEARE BEHIND BARS (Director: Hank Rogerson) - Twenty male inmates in a Kentucky prison form an unlikely Shakespearean acting troupe.

TRUDELL (Director: Heather Rae) - A chronicle of legendary Native American poet/activist John Trudell's travels, spoken word performances, and politics.

WHY WE FIGHT (Director: Eugene Jarecki) - This film places the Iraqi war in a historical context and examines the forces - economic, political, and ideological - that drive American militarism.

You're just trying to rain on my awe inducing prediction power parade damnit.

BTW, I agree with your summation so far. And am just still so happy Capturing the Friedmans didn't walk off with the win in '03. Herzog very well may sneak in for nom #5 over Rock School. And I had no doubt, barring some technical disqualifier, that Enron, Ballroom, Murderball will get noms. I still don't know about Penguins. There's a huge chance it'll get a nom (though I don't think the win).

Enron, Mad Ballroom and Penguin Mrch are all playing at a theater ten minutes away from where l;ll be living a month from now. By the time l get there they'll no doubt be gone, and l doubt l'll get to see em (maybe Penguins as it;ll be close by soon). Anyway, l have no idea about documentaries past what everyone else's said, but...l dunno. just sayin, l spose. yknow how i do. or dont. m.

I mean come on! the girl is only 15,and they talk as if this transformation took years.

I don't think Grizzly Man is going to get a nod. It just looks a little too...shall we say odd? I don't know, but after seeing the trailer it was enough for me to know this was not my type of film. Though I am curious to see his mental state and whether or not they discuss it in the film to any extent as I think that should have been a focal point while tying into his actions and the film he took.

Murderball
March of the penguins
Ring of fire

Those are my predictions,and i hope Ring of fire wins.

I'm happy with the result, because I think Fog of War is brilliant, but I also think Capturing the Friedmans was downright fascinating and every inch deserving.

It gets a pass from me because it wears its bias on it's sleeve, it's not afraid to say it DOES have bias. Fog of War is fantastic not because of Morris (who tries to derail it) just because McNamara is so fascinating.

Blah. I hated Friedmans.

I guess coupled with the Jarmusch thing...we're even.

No, because you hate one movie which is good.

I hate multiple movies which are ass :grin:

I haven't seen any documentaries this year so far.
I'm planning on seeing Penguins and Murderball soon.

And having not seen any, I would haveto agree with Dolcevita... I think Murderball will take it!

Shh...don't let Dolcevita hear you. She'll have a fit. :wink:

Well, this category really seems like a no-brainer right now.