I'm putting this together for the awards fans here, so I hope you find it useful and interesting. I'll track reviews and the tomatometer at Rotten Tomatoes and the Metacritic scores for the upcoming and past releases this year, and it'll hopefully help shape the big picture for us on our way to the Oscars. The best picture nominees since 2000 are in the 2nd post of this thread, and this year's hopefuls will be tracked in the in the first post. Enjoy!

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2005 Best Picture Contenders[/table]


[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Brokeback Mountain[col]138[col]19[col]88%[col]89%[col]8.3[col]8.1[col][col] 87[col] 17
[row][col]Capote[col]137[col]13[col]91%[col]100%[col]8.2[col]8.5[col][col] 88[col] 14
[row][col]Cinderella Man[col]150[col]31[col]83%[col]80%[col]7.6[col]7.6[col][col] 69[col] 7
[row][col]The Constant Gardener[col]128[col]29[col]82%[col]91%[col]7.6[col]8.2[col][col] 82[col] 6
[row][col]Crash[col]132[col]39[col]77%[col]76%[col]7.2[col]7.1[col][col] 69[col] 5
[row][col]Good Night, and Good Luck[col]159[col]10[col]94%[col]95% [col]8.2[col]8.2[col][col] 80[col] 8
[row][col]A History of Violence[col]154[col]24[col]86%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]8.4[col][col] 81[col] 6
[row][col]Match Point[col]81[col]20[col]80%[col]89%[col]7.3[col]7.8[col][col] 72[col] 4
[row][col]Munich[col]109[col]32[col]77%[col]59%[col]7.5[col]6.8[col][col] 74[col] 7
[row][col]Pride and Prejudice[col]128[col]21[col]86%[col]86%[col]7.8[col]7.6[col][col] 82[col] 8
[row][col]The Squid and the Whale[col]119[col]7[col]94%[col]100%[col]8.0[col]8.3[col][col] 82[col] 4
[row][col]Syriana[col]108[col]40[col]73%[col]86%[col]7.0[col]7.6[col][col] 76[col] 3
[row][col]Walk the Line[col]146[col]31[col]82%[col]74%[col]7.4[col]7.1[col][col] 72[col] 2[/table]




[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]The Chronicles of Narnia[col]124[col]42[col]75%[col]78%[col]7.0[col]7.1[col][col] 75[col] 4
[row][col]Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire[col]170[col]22[col]89%[col]89%[col]7.5[col]7.2[col][col] 81[col] 3
[row][col]King Kong[col]169[col]34[col]83%[col]76%[col]7.7[col]7.6[col][col] 81[col] 10
[row][col]Revenge of the Sith[col]190[col]43[col]82%[col]69%[col]7.3[col]6.9[col][col] 68[col] 3[/table]

Best Picture Winners

Gotham Awards - Capote

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]Best Picture Winners 2000-2004[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Gladiator[col]98[col]29[col]77%[col]72%[col]7.0[col]6.4[col][col] 64[col] 2
[row][col]A Beautiful Mind[col]117[col]32[col]79%[col]82%[col]7.2[col]7.3[col][col] 72[col] 3
[row][col]Chicago[col]163[col]24[col]87%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]8.2[col][col] 82[col] 12
[row][col]Return of the King[col]205[col]11[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.7[col]8.7[col][col] 94[col] 28
[row][col]Million Dollar Baby[col]184[col]18[col]91%[col]95%[col]8.4[col]8.6[col][col] 86[col] 22[/table]


[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2004 Best Picture Nominees[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Million Dollar Baby[col]184[col]18[col]91%[col]95%[col]8.4[col]8.6[col][col] 86[col] 22
[row][col]The Aviator[col]173[col]22[col]89%[col]82%[col]7.9[col]7.5[col][col] 77[col] 6
[row][col]Sideways[col]187[col]8[col]96%[col]98%[col]8.5[col]8.7[col][col] 94[col] 24
[row][col]Finding Neverland[col]151[col]29[col]84%[col]81%[col]7.6[col]7.3[col][col] 67[col] 2
[row][col]Ray[col]148[col]34[col]81%[col]85%[col]7.3[col]7.7[col][col] 73[col] 4[/table]

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2003 Best Picture Nominees[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Return of the King[col]205[col]11[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.7[col]8.7[col][col] 94[col] 28
[row][col]Mystic River[col]157[col]26[col]86%[col]95%[col]7.8[col]8.1[col][col] 84[col] 14
[row][col]Lost in Translation[col]187[col]10[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.4[col]8.6[col][col] 89[col] 18
[row][col]Master and Commander[col]160[col]30[col]84%[col]92%[col]7.6[col]7.9[col][col] 81[col] 11
[row][col]Seabiscuit[col]149[col]40[col]84%[col]87%[col]7.2[col]7.5[col][col] 72[col] 3[/table]


[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2002 Best Picture Nominees[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Chicago[col]163[col]24[col]87%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]8.2[col][col] 82[col] 12
[row][col]Gangs of New York[col]137[col]41[col]77%[col]69%[col]7.3[col]6.7[col][col] 72[col] 2
[row][col]The Hours[col]132[col]36[col]79%[col]82%[col]7.4[col]7.3[col][col] 81[col] 10
[row][col]The Pianist[col]152[col]7[col]96%[col]94%[col]8.2[col]8.2[col][col] 85[col] 8
[row][col]The Two Towers[col]196[col]5[col]98%[col]100%[col]8.5[col]8.0[col][col] 88[col] 15[/table]

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2001 Best Picture Nominees[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]A Beautiful Mind[col]117[col]32[col]79%[col]82%[col]7.2[col]7.3[col][col] 72[col] 3
[row][col]Gosford Park[col]116[col]18[col]87%[col]97%[col]7.5[col]8.0[col][col] 90[col] 13
[row][col]In The Bedroom[col]120[col]8[col]94%[col]90%[col]7.9[col]7.6[col][col] 86[col] 12
[row][col]Moulin Rouge[col]123[col]36[col]77%[col]65%[col]7.0[col]6.1[col][col] 66[col] 1
[row][col]Fellowship of the Ring[col]166[col]13[col]93%[col]97%[col]8.1[col]8.3[col][col] 92[col] 17[/table]

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]2000 Best Picture Nomineess[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh[col color=#000000]Rotten[col color=#000000]Tomatometer[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]Metacritic[col color=#000000]100's
[row][col]Gladiator[col]98[col]29[col]77%[col]72%[col]7.0[col]6.4[col][col] 64[col] 2
[row][col]Chocolat[col]67[col]42[col]61%[col]65%[col]6.0[col]6.3[col][col] 64[col] 1
[row][col]Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon[col]131[col]5[col]96%[col]97%[col]8.5[col]8.4[col][col] 93[col] 16
[row][col]Erin Brockovich[col]107[col]20[col]84%[col]88%[col]7.3[col]7.3[col][col] 73[col] 3
[row][col]Traffic[col]117[col]9[col]93%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]7.9[col][col] 86[col] 11[/table]

Mav, a table view might be more helpful no? For comparison of course.

Ok, as soon as I get a chance, I will convert them to tables.

Ah hah only 7.8 for Walk the Line. Thats a cry lower than most of the previous BP nominated. Its getting alot of 'good but not great, Reese steals the show'. In that reason I think its a lock to be nominated but it winning is almost impossible. The rating will go down as more reviews come too.

Huh? That's not a low score at all, not even when comparing, but it's only 5 reviews.

All converted to charts.

Well its not absolutely fantastic, and for an 100% its rather low. I expect it to go down to 7.1 or lower by the end, but thats just me.

I disagree. I heard too many raves to believe it's going to be one of the lower reviwed films to get nominated.

But it's higher than two recent BP winners.


That's not necessarily true at all. Even Roll Bounce started lower than where it is now. Getting better and better reviews is not uncommon at RT.

Yeah but Walk the Line is at 100% right now. That means every one of its reviews has been positive. Its positive rating average is 7.8, not its overall average which hasn't been determined yet. If 7.8 is what its all-positive rating is at the moment, thats not impressive whatsoever.

Lets look at a movie like History of Violence, which has 7.8. HoV has most of its reviews in, positive and negative. If its positive and negative balance out to 7.8, then obviously its positive rating alone if it wasn't dragged down by the negatives would be alot higher than 7.8. It makes sense. 7.8 is what it ended up with after being dragged down, so its positive rating is most likely somewhere in the 8.5-8.7 levels at least if I had to guess. Thats grossly more than Walk the Line.

Lets say Walk the Line gets 15 reviews, 13 positive and 2 negative. 87%. 13 positives average out to 7.8. Negatives are 3 and 5, averaged to 4. 13x7.8 + 2x4 / 15 = 7.3 average. And thats if it gets that good of reception.

How about if it gets up with 79%, with 108 reviews? Thats 85 fresh, 23 rotten. 85x7.8 + 23x4 /108 = 7.0 rating.

I'll stick with it having a tough job of actually beating Jarhead, Munich, Brokeback Mountain, History of Violence, Memoirs of a Geisha, Match Point, or King Kong, if any of those live up to Oscar hype.

Considering how its rating has held up thus far, 79% would be surprising. I'm guessing 71-72%.

To defend Walk the Line it's at a 7.8 because theres only 3 freakin reviews with an actual grade/score ( B, 8/10, and 3.5/4 )

King Kong? That's just a fantasy. Walk the Line is getting raves, and these 5 reviews aren't indicative of anything. It sounds like you don't want it to do well, so you're trying to skew the facts to agree with you. It's getting a nom, and it'll be strong. You're basing the entire 150-200 review scores by the first 5, and that's just foolish.

I do want it to do well. I really do love Reese Witherspoon. Last week I argued the hell out of that 10-page thread defending her. Its just I don't think it'll be a Best Picture. 7.8/8/B is dead on with what I've been reading, its good, but not by any means the best movie of the year. Its more of a vehicle for Joaquin to get a push, and Reese Witherspoon to win her Oscar, and to honor Cash.

I have no doubt its a lock for being nominated, it'll take the Golden Globe, but its my personal opinion that it doesn't have enough to beat Jarhead and Munich. Or Brokeback. Or Violence if it can get a good push near Oscar season. Or Kong if PJ can pull something magnificent out of his hat, likewise for Woody Allen and Match Point.

To each his own, I'll believe it my way, you'll believe its yours, the Oscars aren't for a while anyways.

But how do you know it won't have enough to beat two movies that you can't even find a review for? How is it that I'm reading raves, but you're reading "it's good, but not Oscar worthy"? Where are these reviews?

7.8 is an insanely impressive number. When you consider things like Murderball only have 8.4 rating. March of the Penguins, 7.9. A History of Violence is the widest release (non foreign, non docu) on there with the best grade at 7.9. Cinderella Man is 7.6. What fantasy world do you live in that says 7.8 is not a good score?!? There are *very* few releases a year that get over 8.0. Getting over 9.0 is a feat that is nearly impossible.

Look if you don't believe me: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/top/besto ... ?year=2005


There is no rule stating that these three random reviews are representative (good or bad) of the whole.


Your logic is faulty to the extreme. You are making the assumption that 7.8 is the best that this can do review wise and that a negative review would garner it a 4 (which is not likely for a picture like this). For the sake of argument, let's keep it that way. Let's say that since we have 3 reviews that average out to 7.8 that we get 10 that are 8.5ish and 2 that are 4s. That's 7.76.

The logic that 7.8 translates to "B" doesn't fly. That's an arbitrary connection.

All the rest is opinion, and that's yours, I don't care, but your logic doesn't make sense, you are giving the film a ceiling of 7.8.

Well, to make it easy, look at bloody rottentomatoes and the ones that have come out of that:

The most established critic in thus far:
Emanuel Levy - http://www.emanuellevy.com/article.php?articleID=369

"Not ntirely successful as a biopicture, "Walk the Line" is too conventional, clichés-ridden, and contains too many “big” scenes."

"Elevating the film way above its melodramatic trappings are the winning turns of Joaquin Phoenix who, always dressed in black, looks like the singer, and particularly Reese Witherspoon, who gives a tough performance that represents her most mature and strongest work since “Election.”"

"“Walk the Lines” suffers from the problems that have plagued most Hollywood biopictures, be they about writers, singers, or actors. The transformation of historical personae into a coherent narrative and engaging dramatic character often calls for a gloss over complex problems of historical accuracy and causality."

He spends alot of the review, the last 2 paragraphs, on Reese Witherspoon being brilliant and that she deserves best Actress. He gives it a B.


Variety -http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117928066?categoryId=31&cs=1

Mostly talks about the details of the film, a little criticism here:

"Reese Witherspoon does a sensational job as lifelong performer June Carter, while Joaquin Phoenix gains in conviction as pic builds to put over a very credible Johnny Cash. Their surprisingly good vocal perfs on the many well-known songs are icing on the cake"

"Winning and tough, Witherspoon simply could not be better in her most serious, fully elaborated performance to date."

"Except for Witherspoon's, Southern accents throughout are on the light side, and same can be said for the film itself, which has a polished sheen where a greater grittiness would have been appropriate. Although this Johnny Cash walks the walk of the Man in Black, it's never entirely clear why he was perceived as more dangerous than his contemporaries, and a bolder, less prefab approach could have helped."

"Still, "Walk the Line" moves along in a confident, pleasing way that provides a good feel for its characters and what they went through over the years. Supporting turns are solid and technical work thoroughly pro"

Key word: Pleasent. A pleasent movie.

E-film critic -http://efilmcritic.com/review.php?movie=12838&reviewer=198

He mostly talks about Witherspoon and how brilliant she is, and how he likes the singing.

If you look through the other couple RT ones, they exclaim the same thing. 8/10, a joyous movie to sit through, theres no Best Picture rant.


And now lets head over to aintitcool :

http://www.aintitcool.com/display.cgi?id=21283

"Its a very good film."

"His childhood scenes are the ones I wasn't too crazy about. They do get a little cliched and reminded me a lot of "Ray". There is a family tragedy involving his brother, Johnny feels responsible, and is haunted by it. I know this fact is true, I just wish the director, James Mangold didn't present it like so many other biopics we've seen before."

"Phoenix is terrific as Cash. I do think it would have been a safer bet to just have him lip-sync his recordings as Cash as he had maybe the most distinctive voice in music. The early scenes with him auditioning for a recording contract do make his singing seem weak as there's very little music to drown it out. The film later shows Cash in concerts, and that does make Phoenix's voice seem much more stronger, like Cash's.

Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash was maybe even better. She's so charming and "Cute" as June and I thought her singing was even better. There's a scene near the end of the film with her singing where you'd swear she was a professional. This is the best performance i've seen from her."

"Overall, very strong biopic. I was a little worried that Mangold didn't seem like the right person to make this film, but he does a fine job. I found "Walk The Line" to be better then last years' "Ray"."

"If you like Cash, it's coming out November 18. I'm sure it will get many Oscar nominations."

He compares Walk the Line and Ray, and says he prefers Walk the Line. If Walk the Line was absolutely fantastic he wouldn't have to say hes made the decision that he liked Walk the Line better, he would've exclaimed it was way better. And hes sure it'll get many nominations. Nothing about it going for Best Picture or anywhere around there.

So out of my 4 reviews, I simply don't see any best movie of the year exclamations. I see B+s, 8/10s, pleasent to watch, and a full load of Joaquin/Reese love to salvage. Well Maverick, your turn, lets see your Best Picture raves.

heh... Did you see any of that for A Beautiful Mind? Chicago? Gladiator? Hell, Titanic get raves? pfft. Part of this whole Oscar thing is realizing that "best picture" really doesn't mean anything. These reviews point out that it's a good film, with no significant problems, that's conventional, that will appeal to the average moviegoer... man, sounds like a pretty strong contender to me.

The point of this is not to say that Walk the Line will be a perfect movie, but that it's RT score (at the moment) doesn't handicap it in any way. And it doesn't. There are enough people from other articles I've read ready to lavish this film with a boatload of praise. How big will the backlash be? Hard to tell.

And as long as people say that Pheonix and Witherspoon can win, that's enough to think this has a serious shot at going all the way. Very few pictures win without support from an Actor, Actress, Sup. Actor, Sup. Actress. Jarhead, Memoirs, Munich, King Kong, those are all big question marks as far as that goes.

Jarhead has Jake Gylennhall who is bound to get a nom in there somewhere between his 3 Oscar-pushing films, and Foxx as a supporting role. Also it has mr. American Beauty Sam Mendes at the helm.

Munich has rising star Eric Bana, and the director will get so much attention that it'll make up for lesser names.

Memoirs has Zhang Zhyi who is gunning for best actress, and a supporting girl who I can't recall the name that has been mentioned alot in that category.

Brokeback Mountain has Jake Gylennhall again, and this year's Best Actor front-runner in my opinion Heath Ledger.

History of Violence has highly regarded director Croenenberg, Viggo for Best Actor, and Ed Harris in the supporting role.

King Kong along with the high-profile director Peter Jackson, has Oscar winner Adrien Brody, respected and known Jack Black who turned heads in School of Rock, and Naomi Watts as one of the preimier female actresses around today.

Match Point has Woody Allen directing and acting, and Scarlett Johansson. Both Academy loved.

All the King's Men has Sean Penn, Jude Law, and Kate Winslet. All Oscar nom-ed.

Well, first of all, I can't believe you're posting reviews from aint it cool news as some kind of proof, or that it's giving strength to your argument. If anything, that speaks of desperation in your claims about how the movie is being viewed, that you actually had to go slumming for an opinion to support you. I'm sure the academy is hanging their hat on that opinion. Second, Emanual Levy is not the most established critic to give an opinion on the film, and, once again, you are making up "facts" in an attempt to give your increasingly weak argument credibility.

I don't know where you're getting that the Variety review is anything but very positive??? There is nothing in that review that says it's good, but not THAT good. Todd McCarthy, who's a more established critic than Emanual Levy is, says "Walk the Line" is a strongly acted, musically vibrant, conventionally satisfying biopicbiopic of country/rock/blues legend Johnny Cash and his second wife, June Carter. Absorbing and entertaining, James MangoldJames Mangold 's heartfelt feature follows the predictable format for musical bios, encompassing popular singers' performance highs and drug-addled lows, and could have benefited from a rougher edge in line with the main subject's outlaw image. "

That's something you failed to quote. Why?

From David Polland:

"Mangold has clearly done his best work here, finally getting a story that is as taut and elegant as the performances he has always been able to help his actors achieve. There are some great directorial moments and ideas that clearly built the pillows on which these two Oscar-nomination-to-be performances by two of our best young actors are supported. Having seen the film three times now ? and looking forward to a fourth ? some of the great detail work bubbles to the surface. This film is a serious crowd pleaser. But it is more than that."

"Walk The Line has some tough, heartbreaking moments. But all things considered, it is a wonderful love story with a rocking soundtrack and a joy of life. On third look, the movie is looking more and more like a Best Picture lock. Even better, it?s a joy."

Roger Ebert ( I'm not making anything up about who the most established critics are) has said very positive things about the film.

It was chosen as the film to open the AFI Film Festival.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/Notepad/20 ... 0a_pr.html

It's also been universally praised as being a major hit at the Toronto Film Festival.

From the Hollywood Reporter:

http://hollywoodreporter.com/thr/articl ... 1001138163

"Judging by the reactions of both audiences and critics, "Walk the Line," "Capote" and "Brokeback Mountain" took the lead in the early Oscar fray, while such awards hopefuls as "Bee Season," "Elizabethtown" and "Oliver Twist" ran into resistance."

See, I'm not making things up.

Here's another review:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/reviews/wa ... pride.html

"There are ten thousand personal reasons I?m left slack-jawed and dewy-eyed at James Mangold?s movie, written with Gill Dennis as well as the extensive cooperation of the late couple."

Jeffrey Wells:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/

"Admirably pared-down, ultra-believable Johnny Cash biopic...rooted and steady on its feet. Oscar prospects : Guaranteed Best Actor and Best Actress noms for Joaquin Pheonix and Reese Witherspoon; possible Best Picture and Best Director (James Mangold). Commercial potential: I don't think it's going to do what Ray did, but reasonably spirited business seems likely. "

Obviously, the above comments are not supporting any claims that the film isn't good enough.

Shack, aside from Brokeback Mountain (which I haven't brought up, because Ledger has a decent shot at a nomination) all the pictures here have big question marks in their acting. Obviously some of them will get acting nominations. I'm not too sure about Munich. I think Michelle Yeoh can be nominated. I also think that Sarsgaard will get a nom for Jarhead.

The point we are trying to make is not "Walk the Line" is the only competiter, the only point we are trying to make is that your views don't really map to reality. Walk the Line is expected to have two STRONG acting nominations, it's also the first film of the year that pops on the radar in a super significant way (well, that's a known quanitity).

It's far too early to be talking about winners, but there is absolutely nothing substantial right now which says that, if nominated, Walk the Line couldn't win Best Picture.

I actually even expect to like Jarhead and Munich more than Walk the Line.

While impossibly to deny they're good, I'd hardly call Walk the Line's reviews raves either.

Having two strong favorite acting nominations doesn't you have any advantage in the BP race. Dead Man Walking anyone? Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon, pretty much the older and more respected actor version of this situation. That movie is excellently reviewed, and with having pretty much the two best performances of the year it couldn't even muster up a Best Picture nom. That was a weak year too, when Braveheart won over Babe.

These are professional critics, when they're choosing Best Picture its their job to look at the actual movie. The movie has to hold up, rather than just Joaquin and Reese.

This isn't with Braveheart and Babe this year either. They have to go against Jarhead from Sam Mendes, with Gylennhall and Foxx and Sarsgard holding down the fort. Welcome to the Suck. How can they beat that.

They have to go against Munich, Speilburg's Jewish massacre movie. And by the way andaroo they won't need any acting publicity in that movie anyways. All the publicity is going to be on 'Speilburg Speilburg Speilburg', there won't be any need for high-profile acting. He could make this movie with unknowns and get it as much attention.

If Dead Man Walking can't get an Oscar nom with excellent reviews and Penn and Sarandon ultra-acclaimed, her winning, then Walk the Line getting just good reviews cannot be #1 on the BP list. Or #2. Ray was no Moulin Rouge. I'd say at most Walk the Line is #3, I'd put it at the #4 or #5 nomination right now as Brokeback Mountain will be hitting hard for #3, as will Memoirs of a Geisha for #4.

It certainly does if your get your film nominated for Best Picture. It is statistics. You could dredge up the Braveheart and Lord of the Rings examples if you are desperate. You've already stated that you think Walk the Line is getting a BP nomination, so why are you backing off that? I thought we were talking about it's ability to win.


Critics don't choose Best Picture. The entire Academy, 1/3rd of which are Actors, which is why the connection exists and why actors can push it to Best Picture. Maverikk and Libs and a bunch of other people, including myself, have been stating that evidence exists that this picture has enough going for it... studio push, potential box office, that it should not be limited to the acting categories. These reasons separate it from films like Capote, which is more of a Best Actor delivery vehicle.


Easily? By appealing to the masses and emotions and not sticking to political issues which can divide an audience? The Thin Red Line was a smart picture, Saving Private Ryan was an emotional powerhouse, it still lost to the stuffy literary comedy (and delivered its leading lady a Best Actress win).


I agree, if one picture gets nomianted without any other acting noms, it will be Munich. It does happen.


You are right, it won a big award, was nominated for both Picture and Director, did better at the Box Office and was in general, reviewed more favorably by critics. So if by your logic, Ray = Walk the Line, then I don't know what to say.

You haven't yet come up with a reason why a Best Picture nominee (if Walk the Line is) cannot win based on anything you've said here. And I personally think that Jarhead has a lot going for it and could potentially win. There's a lot I could write about it. And Munich. In fact those three (at this stage) are really the ones I think could win it. It's not a Walk-the-Line-or-nothing type of campaign. We are merely recognizing that 20th Century Fox has a formidable competiter in its stable. You are trying to tell us it's not. I don't know what to say.

You saved me some time, andaroo, because that's my feelings exactly. I don't know where Shack is coming from at all.

Anyway, I've added a few films to the list. If anybody knows of any that should be on there, let me know.

What I meant by Ray not being Moulin Rouge: Moulin Rouge was a much more influential, beloved to this day, and stands out as the high point of that year as the movie that should've won Best Picture in many minds. In other words its generally considered a modern classic, one of the greatest cinema achievements done in a long while. Ray has been done before, just a regular biopic with a great performance. It wasn't impactful enough to have an impact on Walk the Line, the way Moulin Rouge was a direct contributer to Chicago sweeping the next year.

And I haven't denied that Walk the Line will get a nomination. Its just I don't think it has a chance at actually winning. You guys can think whatever you want.