http://theenvelope.latimes.com/movies/e ... -lifestyle


1. Best picture = big picture. True. Think epic ("Titanic"), think laden with costumes ("The Last Emperor"), think butt-numbingly long (the longest nominated film wins about half of the time).

2. Best picture = $100 million. Only one champ in the past six years did not reach that sum at the U.S. box office as of Oscar night ? the one, ironically, with "million dollar" in its title: "Million Dollar Baby."

3. Best picture winners have the most nominations. Usually. That's been the case 17 times in the past 20 years.

4. Know the name behind the film. There's often one person strongly identified with a best picture nominee, usually a director (Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"), sometimes a star (Russell Crowe, "Gladiator") or even a producer (Harvey Weinstein, insert 17 Miramax films here). Name brands carry a lot of weight in this town.

5. If that person is a studly actor who just took up directing, his movie's automatically nominated ? and often wins. Consider Mel Gibson ("Braveheart"), Kevin Costner ("Dances With Wolves"), Robert Redford ("Ordinary People"), etc. Actors comprise the largest voting bloc within the academy (1,500 out of 5,800), and they all really want to direct.

6. Best picture victor often takes a top acting trophy. Such was the case with "American Beauty" (Kevin Spacey) and "Shakespeare in Love" (Gwyneth Paltrow). But there were times when the truism didn't hold ("Chicago" and "Titanic").

7. Voters have no sense of humor. Choosing winners is serious business, and comedies rarely get the last laugh. "Shakespeare in Love," "Annie Hall" and "The Apartment" are among the few humorous best picture champs in Oscars history, and Lee Marvin ("Cat Ballou") and Richard Dreyfus ("The Goodbye Girl") are two of the few funny guys to triumph.

8. Film critics' awards affect the Oscars. Actually, the Los Angeles and New York critics' awards, bestowed in early December, have a lousy track record as predictors. But they often introduce contenders that might otherwise be overlooked. Hilary Swank ("Boys Don't Cry") and Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock") probably owe their Oscars to the critics. But academy voters don't just rubber-stamp their picks. It didn't matter that both groups named Sissy Spacek best actress in 2001; she lost the Academy Award to Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"). Both critics' groups voted "Sideways" best picture last year, lifting it into the Oscars contest.

9. The Golden Globes predict the Oscars. In recent decades, two-thirds of Oscar's best actors and actresses and nearly three-quarters of the best picture champs won Globes just weeks earlier. But remember, this rule isn't as cut-and-dried as it sounds: The Globes have two sets of best picture awards ? for drama and comedy/musical.

10. Guild awards are the best predictors. That's because they are, like the Oscars, peer-group prizes and they have many of the same voters. You can foresee about three-quarters of the Oscars winners among recipients of kudos from the directors', writers', producers' and screen actors' guilds.

11. Keep it real. Academy members may earn millions by putting fantasy on-screen, but when it comes to the Oscars, they like contenders based on real people and events. Last year, four of the five best actor nominees were reality-based (Jamie Foxx won for playing Ray Charles). Same goes for three of the five best picture nominees (four, if you count winner "Million Dollar Baby," which was based on fiction inspired by the real experiences of fight manager Jerry Boyd).

12. Hug a hooker. Not only is prostitution the world's oldest profession, it's one of the oldest tricks for bagging a best actress trophy. This rule dates back to Helen Hayes in "The Sin of Madelon Claudet" (1932). Jane Fonda, Elizabeth Taylor and Charlize Theron are among the many performers rewarded by Oscar for playing it fast and loose.

13. Embrace the handicapped. Especially if they're guys. Think Geoffrey Rush, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks and many others.

14. Drink up. Booze plays a lead role in rehab-happy Hollywood: sometimes villainous ("The Lost Weekend," "Affliction"), sometimes glamorous ("Sideways," "Lost in Translation"), but almost always worth a vote.

15. Bet on the babes; give the heartthrobs the heave-ho. Legend has it that voters are geezers who lust after babes (Charlize Theron, Hilary Swank, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman), don't mind wrinkles on guys (Sean Penn, Tim Robbins) and punish heartthrobs (Tom Cruise still hasn't won). There are rare exceptions, if Jamie Foxx and Adrien Brody count as beefcake.

16. Win ugly. Some of Hollywood's most lovely leading ladies have been awarded for knowing they must temporarily forfeit their beauty and play against type. Just ask Charlize Theron or Hilary Swank.

17. Play favorites. Voters certainly do. They cheered on Julia Roberts to expose corporate corruption in "Erin Brockovich." They even rooted for Catherine Zeta-Jones ("Chicago") and Russell Crowe ("Gladiator") to get away with murder.

18. Best picture nominees are usually released at year's end. This assumes that most voters are old and have short memories. Perhaps that's true, come to think of it. Recent champs "Chicago" and "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" debuted in December. Heck, "Million Dollar Baby" wasn't in wide release until Jan. 28 of the year it won ? three days after nominations were announced and 12 days after "The Aviator" won best drama at the Golden Globes. Sure, there are exceptions: "American Beauty" (September), "Braveheart" and "Gladiator" (May), "Annie Hall" (April), "Silence of the Lambs" (February), but they're increasingly rare.

Heh. "Win ugly."

A lot of good info here, though.

That has got to be the STUPIDEST list I have seen in a long time.

Lol, ironically, it's from the site I brought up

Statistically it's completely sound.

hah...I thought it looked like a pretty good guide to follow, too, that's why I posted it.

Great list! Seems "The Libertine" (or at least Johnny Depp) might just be headed for an Oscar nomination...



Okay, this one doesn't *quite* fit with TL, though it *is* laden with costumes and I believe is rather long.



Nope, I don't think there's much of a chance for TL on this one. Firstly, it comes out fairly late in the season (mid-January) and we're still unsure of exactly *how* wide it will go, depending on the rating it receives...



Don't know about the Oscars yet, but TL ties for most nominations for the BIFA (8 noms).



Ah. Now this one definitely refers to TL... It's got a star--Johnny Depp, and it *also* has Harvey Weinstein (not as a producer, but as a major backer and dedicated campaigner).



Nothing here.



Won't know this one yet.



Yeah, TL's got it here; definitely a majorly serious drama.



Well, we'll be seeing soon enough.



With the changes of release date for TL, I don't know if it'll end up making the deadline for nomination in the GG's. We'll have to see on that one. *But*... I can see Johnny Depp getting nominated in the Best Actor for Comedy award with CatCF, and maybe even a nomination for CatCF in the Best Picture for Comedy.



Again, we'll have to see.



Here we go! TL is based on a very real person and very real events. And Depp's performance is rumored to be a brilliant portrayal of the man the movie is about.



I don't think TL quite has any qualifications in this category...



Not handicapped, but Depp's character suffers (and pretty much disentegrates) from a terminal disease (at least, terminal in that day and age).



If I've heard correctly, Depp's character is a drunk...



This one might be detrimental, as Depp is definitely one of those heartthrob guys. But the following "rule" I believe makes up for it...



As the film progresses, Depp's character succumbs to syphillis, and I believe even loses a nose. I've heard he's almost unrecognizable by the last scenes of the movie.



Don't quite know if Depp's a favorite, but he *has* been nominated two times in a row... This would be his third consecutive nomination.



Ah, this one works, too. TL is released in NYC/LA Nov. 25 for a one-week run, but then it doesn't go wide until January 13, 2006. Definitely working in its favor, I believe.

***

Well, now, I *believe* that gives "The Libertine" and/or Johnny Depp about 50/50 chance at this point. However, as many of these "rules" dealt with basing on nominations/wins from other awards and the nominations at the Oscars, I'll have to come back to this list and see how TL does...

But, hey, I think at the very least, Johnny Depp has a chance at a Best Actor Oscar... Third time's the charm, eh?

Joy

Except The Libertine was getting pretty shitty reviews last time I read.

You're such a Kill Joy. hahaha...get it?

I actually have since read some positive things about Depp but not the movie really. Seems like a "meh" movie.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1000523 ... /?show=all

It gives off kind of a ... Girl With a Pearl Earring sort of vibe.

Which is why I'm aiming more at Johnny Depp get nominated than the movie getting nominated... There's the possibility of costumes and makeup and that sort of stuff, but I'm mainly concerned with Johnny getting nominated again (and possibly finally winning). I was just analyzing the movie itself since most the "rules/steps" pertained to Best Picture rather than Best Actor...

But, hey, the reviews they *do* have there on RT at the moment seem to have all been given fresh tomatoes so far...

LOL @ Maverikk

Joy

Johnny wouldn't win this year, even if he was nominated.

It's Hoffman vs. Pheonix.

I wouldn't count out Ledger. In fact, it may be the battle against the young ones, Pheonix v. Ledger