Maverikk's Early Awards Season Preview

I hope all of the awards fans here enjoy this. I had no movies to watch tonight , so I took a bit of time to compile an early awards season preview for everybody. These are the movies that I see as having the best shot at getting some important nominees. I think there are only about 6 of us here that are really into the awards season, and I'm really hoping that the website does some things to attract some more of those types of members, as I'm sure many of the other awards fans around here would appreciate like I would. I love talking with the fanboys, but I like a little diversity, too, and probably enjoy talking about the awards movies more than anything at the forums. They just seems to inspire better conversations.

The following films are the early releases that have possibilities, but their early release dates are not in their favor to get much awards attention.

The Upside of Anger (March 11) While I don't see any Best Picture or Best Director nominations in the future of this film, veteran actress, Joan Allen, has a really good chance of getting recognized for her performance.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0365885/

Sin City (April 1) This could get a few surprise nominations. I don't foresee any Best Director nominations, since it's directed by two people (or three, if you count Tarantino's guest segment), but there are two possibilities that I see. First, if appeasing the fanboy segment is considered, this could be the token movie that gets recognized for Best Picture considerations. Also, since this was a comeback for Mickey Rourke, and he steals the movie, Best Supporting Actor nominations could be in the cards.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0401792/

Crash (May 6) This film deals with relevant social issues, has a great ensemble cast, and is the directorial debut of red hot Paul Haggis. Haggis is a longshot, but should this movie be received overwhelmingly positive, some Best Director nominations could happen. Best Picture is also possible under the same conditions. Both Matt Dillon and Sandra Bullock are in the types of roles that could get them both recognized as supporting players, as they have both had long and successful careers, with not much to show for it.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0375679/

Kingdom of Heaven (May 6) This could be the token "epic" film that the awards voters seem to love, but the prospects of Ridley Scott and Kingdom of Heaven getting recognized are pretty slim, as Gladiator already took care of Scott. Liam Neeson is probably the most realistic shot at getting some attention.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0320661/

Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (May 19) This isn't just wishful fanboy thinking, but a real possibility, although nothing I would bet on. It is possible for this film to be used as a ratings booster, and the more dramatic tone of Sith could make a case for it being more than just that, even though it most likely wouldn't be. Also, like Sir Alec Guiness and Ian McKellan before him, it's very possible that Ian McDiarmid could snag some supporting nominations, as I fully expect him to steal the movie.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0121766/

Cinderella Man (June 3) I'm listing this film, although it's truely a longshot. It's this summer's Seabiscuit Oscar bait, but with a boxing themed movie (Million Dollar Baby) just winning big last awards season, it's not likely to happen again, just as Ron Howard, Russell Crowe, and Renee Zellweger aren't likely to get anymore awards love so soon. Paul Giamatti, on the other hand, is a strong possibility for some considerations.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0352248/

The following films are lined up to be released during the awards season, for the specific purpose of being fresh in the minds of voters.

Syriana (September 16) This film is a true life account of a veteran CIA agent played by George Clooney, in what could be the role that gets him recognition from all of the pals he has made in Hollywood. Writer/director Stephen Gaghan (Traffic), could also get consideration, if the quality is there.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0365737/

Oliver Twist (September 30) This film is a classic story, and features some mega talent, like Sir Ben Kingsley, director Roman Polanski, and Oscar winning writer, Ronald Harwood (The Pianist), but it remains to be seen if anymore accolades will be bestowed on those gentlemen. The film itself has the best shot of getting considerations.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0380599/

In Her Shoes (October 7) This is a film to pay attention to. Director Curtis Hanson (LA Confidential and 8 Mile) could be a lock for award nominations, if this comedy/drama starring Cameron Diaz, Toni Collette (The Sixth Sense), and Shirlie McClaine is up to the challenge. Cameron Diaz may be primed for some awards considerations, as well, and Collette could put herself on the map. This film is written by Oscar winner, Susannah Grant (Erin Brockovich), who I think will have a very successful year. May be a good movie for Libs to enjoy on her birthday!

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0380599/

Elizabethtown (October 14) This picture was mysteriously moved away from summer, and I think it's obvious why it was. It's being primed as an awards film, and could potentially get Cameron Crowe some very much deserved recognition as a director. If the movie is quality, he's a lock. Word on the street is that the script is fanatastic! I also think that possible nominations for Kirsten Dunst and Alec Baldwin could happen. I look for this film to make some serious noise, and I'll be relying on this movie to get me through a bad day.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0368709/

Jarhead (November 11) Director Sam Mendes (Road to Perdition and American Beauty) could be a bigtime contender as a Best Director, and Jarhead, a film that both Leonardo DiCaprio and Tobey Maguire tried to get the lead role in, could be a force, as War dramas always resonate with voters. While it's very unlikely that anymore love will be coming Jamie Foxx's way, Jake Gyllenhaal stands a chance of becoming a major player, as well as a serious contender in the awards race.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0418763/


The New World (November 11) Colin Farrell stars in this film about the adventurous life of Captain John Smith (Farrell), who helped settle the colony of Jamestown, Virginia in 1607, and had a romantic relationship with Pocahontas, the young Algonquian native. I'm guessing that Christopher Plummer probably has the best shot at any major nominations for this film, as Disney's Pocahontas will most likely mean no attention for the movie or director.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0402399/

Walk the Line (November 18) The Johnny Cash biopic will most certainly garner some attention, as will Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, who play Johnny Cash and June Carter-Cash respectively. Director James Mangold (Cop Land and Kate and Leopold) will also, more than likely, receive attention. From the pictures I've seen, I would say that Phoenix and Witherspoon are locks to be very prominent in the upcoming awards season.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0358273/

The Great Raid (December 2) Another war epic, with a solid cast, but definitely not A list. It could surprise, but I don't expect it to make much noise, especially with the more high profile Jarhead in the picture, and Clint Eastwwod and Steven Spielberg's war epic Flags of our Fathers coming up next year. It's a movie to keep an eye on, but not to expect anything from, as it will probably be the victim of the numbers game.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0326905/

Rumor Has It (December 23) This is a movie that I'm looking forward to a great deal, as I'm a big Rob Reiner fan. He could be in a great position, like Cameron Crowe is, where it's "his turn" to get some very much deserved recognition. Jennifer Aniston may be ready to take a leap similar to what Helen Hunt did. A nice cast will give her plenty of support.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0398375/

The following films are not yet on the schedule, but could be released in time for the season.

Catch and Release The directorial debut of Susannah Grant, who wrote Erin Brockovich, and who is also the writer of the upcoming Charlotte's Web. It stars Jennifer Garner, who may have finally found the right role to shine in. This is a film to keep an eye out for.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0395495/

*as more non scheduled films come to my attention, I will edit them in*

As I have gone againist the KJ popular opinion that

The Interpreter will be getting some award nominations

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I will say the same thing for

Cinderella Man - M$B wins from last year won't stop CM from getting any deserving nominations.

We REALLY need more Oscar and awards fans here.

Lion Witch and the Wardrobe I see taking some tech nods, and possibly even at least one major.

First impression: I don't have Oliver Twist that high on my list. The novel has been adapted 760 times, and it is being over-estimated because of Polanski. On the other side, Memoirs of a Geisha, if we go by the pedigrees of production crew and cast, should definitely be up there. Its release date has been set to the second weekend of December. And then, there is Vengence, or Untitled Spielberg Project, if Spielberg can finish it in time for the award. It could be 1993 all over again, with Jurrasic Park dominating the summer box office (Wars of the World this year), and Schindler's List dominating the award season.

Something bout Polanski doing Olivar Twist dosn't sound right.

Well at least hes not doing Annie...

There are more than 5 high profile, high production value films battling it out for BP nominations. Someone is going to be left out. The only question is who.

Kingdom of Heaven is a lock for cinematography nomnination and has the best chance of any summer release at a picture/director nod.

Jarhead could make waves. Great supporting cast and competent director, timely subject.

Had Three Kings been released this year, do you think it would have performed differently?

Yeah it might have, I think when it came out people just wanted to forget about the first gulf war and were not in the mood to think about it. I recall reading historians say that that happens after every war, there is immediately following it a period of years where the public just wants to change the subject, get it off it's mind.

Quite true. A lot of good to great directors are coming out swinging this year. Should be an exciting year.

Among musicals, I think The Producers has the best chance.

I agree about The Producers. Unless Rent proves us wrong.

When you have Polanski, Spielberg, Howard, Malick, Scott, Mendes, Crowe, amoung others, all eyeing the top prize, you have a great year.

For me, much too early to be worry about next year's Oscars details .

As in a horserace, Oscar matters most from October to December when everything comes together. You have to see the horses in the flesh before you can handicap them.

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I personally don't have a problem talking about these movies, but why can't it be in the Movie section as what the expectations are of the movies - rather than figuring out the Oscars which are too far away with using a crystal ball.

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Here's another musical called Rent that is directed by Chris Columbus.

http://imdb.com/title/tt0294870/

At this point, I don't have much confidence in Chris Columbus as a director.

Not to sure about Rumor Has It. I think Rob Reiner misses a lot more than he hits, but I do think Jennifer Aniston will eventually get some recognition. She's won an Emmy and is building a respectable film career. Plus, she's got the breakup with Brad Pitt to help her. We all know what he did for Gwyneth!

Actually, that's an interesting point, as the same happened when Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman split. She did win a Golden Globe for To Die For (I think she did, anyway), but after her and Tom Cruise broke up, they started throwing awards at her.

Very true. Didn't Halle Berry have relationship problems about the time she won her Oscar? Oscar loves it when women have problems in their personal life, esp. when it's perceived they are victims. If Meg Ryan had been dumped by Dennis Quaid instead of fooling around with Russell Crowe, she might have received at least a nomiantion for In The Cut. Instead she lost a lot of her goodwill from the movie-going public. A nasty break-up is Oscar gold for an actress.

I know Halle was married to David Justice, the baseball player, for a time, and that didn't end well, but it was some time before she won her Oscar. I'm not sure if she had another bitter breakup after that. I am not sure about which nominated actresses had recent breakups before their noms, but high profile breakups in recent years does seem to have an interesting connection to a possible sympathy vote, even though the performances are deserving, as well.

Eric Benet, her second husband was in rehab for sex addiction. I believe all the problems started once she won an Emmy and was cemented following the Oscar win.

Good analysis!


I'm going to pull the Lord of the Rings argument here and say that nobody, on the whole, stands out enough from this ensemble enough to garner a nomination. Although like Lord of the Rings all the performances are pretty much good.

I think that this film has no chance of being nominated for Picture or Director because Rodriguez is not a DGA member, and if anything the Oscars recognize unions, and most of the members are union members. This is why Lucas, Rodriguez and Tarantino will not get nominations unless they absolutely HAVE to give them the award, and I don't think Sin City is good enough for that.

I think the only nominations that Sin City has a great chance for are Make-up and MAYBE Cinematography. Only because Cinematography usually looks over impressive cinematography when not associated with one of the top 10 or so Oscar films. B

But Sin City doesn't need this kind of validation. It is unique and will be remembered as such.


Crash's biggest problem is "May". And being buried under the mountain of Kingdom of Heaven.


Yeah but Scott never won director, and he is as due as anyone who's name is not Scorsese or Weir in my book. If Kingdom of Heaven is as good as the earlier previews and reviews say, this will be a monster. Even with something like 75% at Rotten Tomato, you won't be able to forget this.

It does need box office north of $100 million though. $150+ would make it a major contendor.


If Ian is as good as he is in the previews throughout the film, I would love this. Sith won't get ignored, and I'm guessing that Williams will take home the Oscar for his major work this year, but the recognition will be for his 6th Star Wars film.


Yeah, supporting for Giamatti (although it's possible he will suck, see: Paycheck). I think the fact that this is about boxing and the Depression pretty much secures that it will not grab a top nomination. Maybe Actor... never count le Crowe out.


Clooney has had one of the most interesting careers since he "went more indie" and his directoral debut was stunning. I hope this is great.


I read that Bloom is actually pretty flippin' good in this.


Joaquin Phoenix has delivered in every single film since The Yards (not including Brother Bear!) and this includes Buffalo Soldiers, The Village, Ladder 49... the films may not have been great but HE was. Quills... Gladiator... Signs... the guy is probably one of the top American actors under the age of 40.

That's a good point about the DGA. He probably ruffled some feathers within the guild by giving them the finger. I'm sure he gained respect with some, too, but probably not enough to make a dent, as I'm sure Lucas would tell him. He's become fast friends with Lucas through this 3D/digital film alliance, and I'm sure he'd rather be pals over on that side of the fence anyway.



Very true, Scott has never won for directing itself, so it'll be interesting to see that one play out.



I'm guessing it will take home many tech awards, but yeah, I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility of McDiarmid getting one of those lifetime acheivement noms. I'd love to see it, too.



I think that his snub was a harsh one last season, and I think the academy knows it. He wasn't so much overlooked by the others, and I think they'll push for him again if his performance is up to snuff, to help the academy make it up to him.



I hope it is, too, and I really think that his colleagues are really wanting to reward him.



I've heard NOTHING but good things all the way around with this film. I am sooo looking forward to it. I hear the script is perhaps Crowe's best yet.



Much like Jamie Foxx embodied Ray Charles, Phoenix seems to be doing the same. I haven't seen anything of live action, but the body language in the still photos nails Johnny Cash. The way he holds his guitar, leans into the microphone, etc...

BTW, my visual effects choices at this point are pretty solid guesses I think.

King Kong
Kingdom of Heaven
Star Wars Episode III

Sad for War of the Worlds... but it's ILM, as is Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. ILM doesn't get multiple pictures nominated in the same year (ever?). Look at Minority Report vs. Episode II.

Narnia is WETA Workshop (not digital) + Sony Digital Imaging... I don't think it's gonna happen.

Other potentials: Batman Begins for it's non digital special effects (those still exist!), Sin City, Fantastic Four (because even Spider-Man won a special effects Oscar), Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (waaaaay long shot).