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Prize Fighters

An early look at the Oscar field -- We analyze the odds for ''All the King's Men,'' ''Broken Flowers,'' ''Jarhead,'' and more by Dave Karger

Though Oscar night is still eight months away (March 5, 2006, to be exact), studio awards strategists are already preparing their plans of attack. They'd better get busy: Since the first half of the year didn't yield much in the way of true contenders, almost all Best Picture nominees should come from the final five months of the year. As usual, one or two films may appear out of nowhere (nobody was talking about Million Dollar Baby or Sideways last July), but here, in alphabetical order, are the likeliest candidates at this early date.

ALL THE KING'S MEN
Could be a contender... if the political drama directed by Steven Zaillian (a past Oscar winner for his Schindler's List screenplay) elicits topflight performances from Academy faves Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, and Jude Law. Unless... a remake of a Best Picture winner seems like too obvious an Oscar ploy. (Dec. 16)

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Could be a contender... since Annie Proulx's unorthodox gay-cowboy love story has landed in the careful hands of director Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). Unless... hardcore fans of the short story complain that the romance between Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal is too tame. (Dec. 9)

BROKEN FLOWERS
Could be a contender... since the droll-and-droller combination of director Jim Jarmusch and star Bill Murray can get a jump on Oscar campaigning, thanks to an early rollout (hey, it worked for Murray in Lost in Translation, a September release). Unless... voters find it too strange and small. (Aug. 5)

ELIZABETHTOWN
Could be a contender... if writer-director Cameron Crowe (Jerry Maguire, Almost Famous) is able to concoct yet another whimsical look at complicated contemporary courtship. Unless... the romance veers too far into schmaltz even for the Academy. (Oct. 14)

GOOD NIGHT. AND, GOOD LUCK.
Could be a contender... if director-costar George Clooney's look at the battle between journalist Edward R. Murrow and anti-Communist Senator Joseph McCarthy registers with audiences awash in 24-hour news. Unless... nominating this sure-to-be-provocative, black-and-white film requires daring that the Academy doesn't possess. (October)

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
Could be a contender... since David Cronenberg's tale of a small-town vigilante (played by Viggo Mortensen, who won raves in Cannes) may have special resonance for today's audiences. Unless... its best chances remain limited to Best Actor. (Sept. 23)

JARHEAD
Could be a contender... if Oscar-winning director Sam Mendes' Desert Storm tale, starring newly minted Best Actor Jamie Foxx, provokes laughs, tears, and thoughtful discussion of current events. Unless... the film's critical look at a still-reverberating war is too divisive for voters. (Nov. 11)

MATCH POINT
Could be a contender... as the film that returns Woody Allen to his former glory. Word out of Cannes was that it's accomplished and surprisingly serious-minded. Unless... the Academy has simply lost its taste for Allen (it's been almost 20 years since his last Best Picture nod). (Dec. 25)

MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Could be a contender... if director Rob Marshall brings as much visual pizzazz to his adaptation of Arthur Golden's novel as he did to 2002's Best Picture winner Chicago. Unless... frankly, it flops. A pan-Asian cast with a mixed domestic track record could make this a tough sell. (Dec. 9

THE NEW WORLD
Could be a contender... if Terrence Malick's historical epic about explorer John Smith and Pocahontas (his first film since the 1998 Best Picture nominee The Thin Red Line) reminds voters that he's usually worth the wait. Unless... Malick's deliberate tone splits audiences even more sharply than last time. (Nov. 9)

THE PRODUCERS and RENT
Could be contenders... for their respective comedic and dramatic powers; both shows cleaned up at the Tony Awards, and most of the original stars are back. Unless... despite their elaborate production values, they end up feeling like dated stage shows. (Dec. 21 and Nov. 11)

SYRIANA
Could be a contender... if a strong team of actors (led by George Clooney and Matt Damon), director Stephen Gaghan (who won a screenplay Oscar for Traffic), and producer Steven Soderbergh enliven an ensemble piece involving a CIA agent's fight against Middle Eastern terrorists. Unless... it gets overshadowed by the fall's other political dramas. (December)

UNTITLED STEVEN SPIELBERG PROJECT
Could be a contender... if Spielberg handles the aftermath of the murder of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics in Munich with a combination of history and sensitivity he's mustered before. Unless... the thriller's ultratight schedule (it's just begun filming) creates a rushed finished project. (Dec. 23)

WALK THE LINE
Could be a contender... if, like Ray, this look at Johnny Cash's early years, starring Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, provides a vividly realistic view of the life of a musical legend. Unless... the film doesn't also contain Ray's sense of social significance. (Nov. 18)

So basicly, they have no idea.

That list really gets me excited for the second half of 2005. There's a lot to look forward to and I really hope that Spielberg can pull another rabbit out of his hat and deliver his movie before the new year. If he does and if he is in Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan mode, then that film will be the frontrunner in my estimation.

But I do. Ixnay Brokeback, Flowers, and New world definately. And of those remaining, I can almost assure that Rent and Syriana won't be up there either.

I am rooting for Broken Flowers right now. Also, I am and have been rooting for King Kong since like... forever. Memoirs of Geisha might be great... or just good... idk if it'll be enough of a new thing to get a nomination.

I really hope we get some bigger great movies in the mix. Sure, indie films are great and should be recognized... but I would rather see an awards show that takes the best movies most widely seen as contenders.

But indie films rule too

ALL THE KING'S MEN (Sony)
Remake = No

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN (Focus Features)
Not chosen to be screened in Cannes? Gay cowboys? Notice how they are trying to bury the Hulk? I say no.

BROKEN FLOWERS (Focus Features)
Focus films could be back this year. People seem to like it, like Bill Murray, and for some wrong reason think JJ is worthy! (that was for dolce).

ELIZABETHTOWN (Paramount)
They really fucked up by not nominated Almost Famous.

GOOD NIGHT. AND, GOOD LUCK. (Warner Independent)
I think Clooney's brilliance has been underestimated. Confessions of a Dangerous Mind was an amazing film. But still... Warner Independent errrg.

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE (New Line Cinema)
Cronenberg + Viggo... hmmmm...

JARHEAD (Universal)
Jarhead has everything going for it at this point.

MATCH POINT (Dreamworks)
I'll believe it when I see it...

MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA (Dreamworks/Sony/etc.)
Damn you. A good contendor.

THE NEW WORLD (New Line)
Beginning to think New Line would pimp History instead.

THE PRODUCERS and RENT (Universal) and (Sony)
Anybody predicting the Producers, with a mediocre cast, unknown director, studio who would do better pushing other films, would steer clear from predicting this. The only musical that has a *chance* is Rent... directed by Chris Columbus... staring "basically" unknowns. Good luck.

SYRIANA
Moved to 2006 I thought.

UNTITLED STEVEN SPIELBERG PROJECT (Universal)
War of the Worlds isn't going to hurt this. This is as close to a sure thing as we can get.

WALK THE LINE (Sony)
I think this will be the one film where the actors (both overdue) push the film to Best Picture nomination.

Potential conflicts.
Focus Features = Brokeback/Broken/Ice Harvest/Pride & Predjudice
Universal = Jarhead/Vengence/Producers/King Kong
New Line = History of Violence/New World
Warner = Good Night. And, Good Luck
Sony = All the King's Men/Walk the Line/Rent
Paramount = The Wheather Man/Elizabethtown

Agreed. Rent might have had a chance if it didn't have The Producers a month later. Oh yeah, and it's directed by the king of shockingly bland and lifeless, Chris Columbus (Home Alone Uno y Dos, Harry Potter Uno y Dos, Stepmom, Mrs. Doubtfire, and *shudder* Nine Months are part of his horrid filmography).

No Charlie and the Chocolate Factory?

For shame, EW... [-(

I know. Doesn't matter who the director is. It could be spielberg...gay cowboys will not be in the top 5. i had the same logic as you did on this one.


You're just jealous 'cause Jarmusch is going to get a Best Director nod for this the way Lynch did for Mulholland. But to ease your worries, no, it won't get a best pic nom for many reasons.



I've seen almost no marketing for this. just the trailer once. I dunno. There's always a couple period pieces that make the 5, and everything else has a post 1970's date except for Geisha. When I said for sure this wasn't going to make it, it was gut instinct. I smell a Cinderella man type quick exit from theatres. so regardless of quality, I think its not going to hold in people's memories by the time noms come around.



YAY! \:D/

I wouldn't count out KING KONG.

I know some may see it as a long-shot now, but if The Two Towers got nominated, this isn't out of the question. I know that it has to live up to major expectations to be considered over other blockbusters throughout the year but the more times I see the trailer, the more I get the feeling there is alot more potential behind the movie.

At first view of the trailer, I didn't think this was going to be as good and as big a contender, but now I am getting a little feeling it just might.


OF those mentioned....

Memoirs of a Geisha
Jarhead
steven Speilberg Project

look to be the only close things to a lock!

King Kong wont be nominated for best picture,i am sure of it.

I'm anxious to see Walk the Line, In Her Shoes and Elizabethtown. I think all three could play in to consideration.

Elizabethtown kind of looks like a polished Garden State.

At the end of the day, I am a realist. And people really love Billy Murray in these types of roles and Jarmusch *IS* liked and respected, as much as I dislike his movies.

I do think Broken Flowers has a shot at one of the bigger awards (Screenplay, Actor, Director?). I'm not so sure about best picture, but some of the films above are gonna suck and Broken Flowers might be the "off-beat-comedy-drama" nominee.

i want a big budget blockbuster making the nominations.

I can't see these making the cut for best picture, besides Walk The Kine which has a great shot. While I can see them getting some acting and screenplay nominations I don't see much else happening. But I could be wrong.

Yea, I think Walk the Line is the only one of the 3 that has a shot at best picture, while the other two will get some acting or screenplay nods.

How can you be rooting for anything at this point? Have you seen Broken Flowers? To me it looks pretty lame. Why is it that Bill Murray thinks he's a serious actor now?

You could post this question in the Box Office Derby and in any other section here. This person is merely anticipating the film and hopes it will be of the caliber to get awards. I hope the same thing about "Vengence".


Because he is trying to reach out of the rut of roles that viewers like you seem to pidgeonhole him in?

I would be shocked if all five BP nominees were on this list.

Yep, there's always a surprise. Million Dollar Baby wasn't even going to be released in 2004 at this point last year. And did anyone think Sideways would become the critical darling it did this time last year?

That's not true.

Last year broke a lot of "rules".

Usually you can peg the nominees in a list of 20 or 30 candidates.

I don't think all 5 nominees are in EW's list either. But I think at least 3 of them could be, perhaps 4.

this is what im rooting for.

A Few Notes...

I see no reason to not believe the hype in regards to Match Point. Of course, I've been a crazy fan of the Wood-man for years, so maybe I'm wrong. But either way, no matter how much the academy loves Woody (and they do, there's no doubting that) Dreamworks hasn't any clue how to sell an Allen flick. Plus, the flyover states have shown a complete lack of interest in his movies the last 15 years. It won't be popular enough for Best Picture, but I'd be surprised at this point, if it's as good as they say, if it didn't get a Screenplay nomination.

I wouldn't think something as small and seemingly quirky as Jarmusch's Broken Flowers getting in (maybe Murray). Lost in Translation's nomination was an exception, not the rule. And it's opening WAAAAY too early. LIT waited until October, no?

RENT doesn't stand a chance, and I'm skeptical (awards recognition, not quality) of THE PRODUCERS.

GEISHA is stuck in that early-December slot that comes awkwardly after the first big guns and before the big late December awards onslaught. Commercial prospects look iffy, so unless its a masterpiece (and they can't ignore it) it'll probably miss out.

GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK looks fantastic. But the October date, coupled with the movies somewhat small scope and lack of commercial potential (Black and White? Great choice, but it's monetary suicide) makes it somewhat of a long shot.

The rest have their pros and cons (although I think the New World has more cons right now). It's all (mostly) speculation now anyway- until they're seen, we basically know nothing.

l'm with the Cap'n. A History of Violence is possibly my most anticipated for the rest of the yr. (keeping in mind l havent seen the trailers for 64 percent of those films...been in a bit of a slump) Other than that, l really and honestly wouldnt be surprised if King Kong shows up. But.