yup, my mistake. Even better odds for a SAG snub for Slumdog.

However, some films did get BP noms despite SAG snubs:

Atonement
Letters from Iwo Jima
Munich
Master and Commander

And some more.

As far as BP wins go.....hmmm, I'm not sure that ever happened. Not that I can think of.

Period Piece war films (war against terrorism in the case of Munich I guess).

I don't think there's been a film like Slumdog in the race, performing the way its performing since I've followed the Oscars. I don't really know what to compare it to.

Pretty much.

It has slightly worse reviews than Capote and less passion behind it, but instead it has a van Sant who has had Good Will Hutning in the past, a more "relevant" theme and it will also end up with more money than Capote.

The cool thing about the race at this moment is that no film looks likely to sweep the critics awards like NCFOM and ROTK did in their years and we don't have anyone really badly overdue like Scorsese in 2006, meaning that the BP race is wide open.

Seriously, four films can win it at the moment: Button, TDK, Milk and Slumdog.

Braveheart, a film as far as I can tell received not a single mention anywhere for its acting. Though it was probably helped among the acting branch by having one of their own at the helm.

Still, unlike those movies Slumdog could still get an acting mention at SAG for Patel, if their love for young actors continues (Hell, they nominated Dakota Fanning for I Am Sam).

A look at Metacritic:

WALL-E - 93/100, 20 100-scores
Slumdog Millionaire - 86/100, 9 100-scores
Milk - 84/100, 10 100-scores
Happy-Go-Lucky - 84/100, 7 100-scores
The Dark Knight - 82/100, 16 100-scores
Rachel Getting Married - 82/100, 8 100-scores
Frost/Nixon - 79/100, 5 100-scores
Gran Torino - 79/100, 0 100-scores
Doubt - 67/100, 3 100-scores
The Reader - 58/100, 1 100-score


________________________________________________________________________________


Last years for comparison:

2007:

Ratatouille - 96/100, 20 100-scores
There Will Be Blood - 92/100, 23 100-scores
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 92/100, 17 100-scores
No Country for Old Men - 91/100, 20 100-scores
Atonement - 85/100, 14 100-scores
The Bourne Ultimatum - 85/100, 8 100-scores
Michael Clayton - 82/100, 3-100 scores
Juno - 81/100, 4 100-scores
Into the Wild - 73/100, 3 100-scores


2006:

Pan's Labyrinth - 98/100, 26 100-scores
The Queen - 91/100, 12 100-scores
United 93 - 90/100, 19 100-scores
Letters from Iwo Jima - 89/100, 15 100-scores
The Departed - 86/100, 13 100-scores
Casino Royale - 81/100, 3 100-scores
Little Miss Sunshine - 80/100, 4 100-scores
Dreamgirls - 76/100, 5 100-scores
Cars - 73/100, 5 100-scores
Notes on a Scandal - 73/100, 2 100-scores
Babel - 69/100, 2 100-scores


2005:

Capote - 88/100, 16 100-scores
Brokeback Mountain - 87/100, 17 100-scores
King Kong - 81/100, 10 100-scores
A History of Violence - 81/100, 6 10-scores
Good Night, and Good Luck. - 80/100, 8 100-scores
Munich - 74/100, 8 100-scores
Walk the Line - 72/100, 2 100-scores
Batman Begins - 70/100, 5 100-scores
Crash - 69/100, 5 100-scores


2004:

Sideways - 94/100, 24 100-scores
The Incredibles - 90/100, 14 100-scores
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 89/100, 16 100-scores
Million Dollar Baby - 86/100, 22 100-scores
Spider-Man 2 - 83/100, 11 100-scores
Vera Drake - 83/100, 10 100-scores
Hotel Rwanda - 79/100, 4 100-scores
The Aviator - 77/100, 6 100-scores
Ray - 73/100, 4 100-scores
Finding Neverland - 67/100, 2 100-scores
Closer - 65/100, 1 100-score


2003:

The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 94/100, 27 100-scores
Lost in Translation - 89/100, 18 100-scores
Mystic River - 84/100, 14 100-scores
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - 81/100, 11 100-scores
Monster - 75/100, 1 100-score
Cold Mountain - 73/100, 5 100-scores
Seabiscuit - 72/100, 3 100-scores
House of Sand and Fog - 71/100, 3 100-scores
21 Grams - 70/100, 7 100-scores


____________________________________________________________________________


I still can't fathom how Finding Neverland got itself nominated. It didn't have much passion behind it, it didn't have an "important" theme like Babel or Crash and wasn't strong in the directing or writing department either. Hotel Rwanda or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind really should have gotten in over it, even if judging by the numbers and the noms.

What strikes me most isn't how much higher the two Pixar films are ranked over the collective group. It's how stiff the competition was for Ratatouille last year, versus what WALL-E is dealing with this year.

It would be a travesty for WALL-E not to get in.

It seems there just isn't as much passion behind films this year. Then again, last year was quite a strong year. This year has been kinda weak in comparison. I still don't know what my #1 is.

GOD DAMNIT CRASH!!! FUCKING DIE!

Rotten Tomatoes update. Alot more reviews have come in...

Frost/Nixon: 90% (100-11), 7.6 and 88% COTC

MILK: 93% (133-10), 8.0 and 90% COTC

Slumdog Millionaire: 93% (118-9), 8.1 and 94% COTC

Doubt: 71% (60-25), 6.6 and 71% COTC

Gran Torino: 81% (35-8), 7.0 and 92% COTC

Ehh, Gran Torino keeps looking better and better.

Honestly, It is not out of the game completely yet. Its chance is about 2% or so, but it is still there if reviews continue to improve. I mean the Academy loves Eastwood. It could get a directing nod...

Don't forget!

Wall-E
96%
Fresh: 208, Rotten:8
Average Rating: 8.5/10
97% COTC
Fresh: 36 Rotten:1
Average Rating: 8.5/10

Yeah, there's certainly truth to it. Then again, you know what also strikes me when looking at the lists? Pan's Labyrinth is probably the most acclaimed foreign flick of the decade, probably moreso than Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (98/100 at MC!!!) and it actually got six Oscar noms and yet missed out on a BP nom with films like Babel and Little Miss Sunshine (which both had significantly less acclaim and pasion behind them), so...


As far as the passion goes, it may be just a hunch, but something tells me that once The Wrestler appears at MC, it will garner a similar kind of passionate reviews as the biggest did last year.

Gran Torino actually makes Crash look like high art. Literally the only reason to see it is for Clint's performance. There's nothing else.

I actually think Frost/Nixon stands the biggest chance of missing out the BP, yet getting a BD nod. DGA will obviously clear that up a bit.

Wha? I'm seeing it exactly the other way around. It has the biggest chance of missing BD, but getting a BP nod.

The Wrestler is sitll my top choice for a BD nom without a BP nom.

Darren isn't going to get a BD nom, if for no other reason it cannot be Nolan, Fincher, Aronofsky, Sant, and Boyle. That's literally too cool for school. The universe will collapse. Howard has to get in to balance things out.

Yes. Frost/Nixon will get Director/Adapted Screenplay/Actor/Editing, though.

I saw Slumdog.

Easily one of the top 10 or 20 motion pictures of the decade.

Is it better than Michael Clayton?

It's better than almost everything this decade except for maybe...

Moulin Rouge!
United 93
Master & Commander
Downfall
The Two Towers (my favorite LOTR movie)
Eternal Sunshine
Kill Bill
The Fog of War
City of God

and a few others.

Roo has given me heavy expectations, if they fail I will kill............Loyal!