I think Actress and Supporting Actress are both 3 way races for the win. Streep/Winslet/Hathaway and Cruz/Winslet/Dewitt.

Hathaway's a weird one for me...I don't think she's a lock for a nom (although with RGM doing fairly well of late, she's looking slightly better), but if she does get the nom, she will be in contention to win.

I missed the time when LA and NY would announce over the weekend or at least Monday, giving us some more actions and buffer of time to talk about before GG's noms.

I so agree.

I really don't have a problem with Frost/Nixon being a contender? It's Howard, yeah, but it seems to be less insultingly pandering than say, A Beautiful Mind, and as it's been said, it's far from a winner contender at the moment. As no-chance-at-winning nominee, I think it's fine.

I'm really beginning to consider this. TDK was the main reason I gave up on WALL-E, because the Academy going for TWO major blockbusters (A CGI sci-fi movie and a a superhero movie) after years of shunning them seemed silly, and TDK just seemed more reasonable, with similar acclaim and much, much bigger box office. Now, it seems like the critics are abandoning TDK to push WALL-E, and while critics are far from the end-all on setting contenders, they can still show movement within the film community beforehand, and that movement very well could be towards a WALL-E nomination over TDK.

Which would be ridiculous, IMO.

It would be 100% worth it!!!

I'm out of the loop. I would, no doubt, tarnish my status as a top awards prognosticator!

Well get in the loop.

The negative review on RR at RT is removed, so it's back to 100%.

Wouldn't the academy just loooooove to award Oscar darlings Leo and Kate in the same year?

Will NY or LA go for Revolutionary Road? I'm counting on the Golden Globes giving the film multiple nominations. Oh, I can't wait for it to be Sunday. By then we should have a MUCH clearer picture on the state of the race.

I know Doubt has seemingly been counted out of the Best Picture race, but it becomes James Berardinelli's (who I know is "controversial" here but his choices are often somewhat indicative) second 4-star movie of the year:

http://www.reelviews.net/php_review_tem ... ifier=1417

Right now I think Milk/Slumdog/Frost look pretty much set, TDK and Button are looking very strong for the last two slots but if Wall-E or the Wrestler wants one, I think those are the two that have to watch out. I'd say Button in particular is the most vulnerable, from the just ok RT score to the "cold" reactions going around to being a fantasy about a man aging backwards. Could definitely see it being BP without BD with Aronofsky replacing Fincher now.

And so the screener season begins, Frost/Nixon is online.

I feel sorta bad downloading these but they never feckin expand to my country hick cinemas!

I remember there was a website where you could download torrents of all the Oscar-nominated movies...

Suddenly Milk is losing some steam in term of the frontrunner status, and the race is getting more wide open by the day, even though the number of total contenders is pretty much set. If the final five are Milk/Slumdog/TDK/Wall-E/BB, I could literally see any one of them winning.

You seriously think Wall-E could win? I think the internet would explode.

New predictions. Doubt goes down, Frost goes up, WALL-E goes up, Button goes slightly down, TDK goes up, Slumdog goes up.

Nom Count: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button (11), The Dark Knight (11), Milk (8), Slumdog Millionaire (7), WALL-E (7), Revolutionary Road (6), Australia (4), Frost/Nixon (4), The Wrestler (3), Happy-Go-Lucky (2), Rachel Getting Married (2), Iron Man (2), Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2), Doubt (2), The Reader (2), Kung Fu Panda (2), Waltz With Bashir (2)

Win Count: WALL-E (5), The Dark Knight (4), The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button (4), Slumdog Millionaire (2)

Best Picture:
1. The Dark Knight
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Milk
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. WALL-E

Best Director:
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Dark Knight
3. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
4. Milk
5. Frost/Nixon

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Milk
2. Rachel Getting Married
3. WALL-E
4. Happy-Go-Lucky
5. Frozen River

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Frost/Nixon
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. The Dark Knight

Best Actor:
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
2. Sean Penn - Milk
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
4. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
5. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino

Best Actress:
1. Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
3. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
4. Meryl Streep - Doubt
5. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
2. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
3. Josh Brolin - Milk
4. Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
5. James Franco - Milk

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis - Doubt
3. Kate Winslet - The Reader
4. Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Best Cinematography:
1. The Dark Knight
2. Revolutionary Road
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. Australia

Best Editing:
1. The Dark Knight
2. Milk
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. Frost/Nixon

Best Score:
1. WALL-E
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Milk
5. The Dark Knight

Best Song:
1. WALL-E
2. The Wrestler
3. Kung-Fu Panda
4. Australia
5. Slumdog Millionaire

Best Art Direction:
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2. Australia
3. The Duchess
4. The Fall
5. The Reader

Best Costume Design:
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2. Valkyrie
3. Australia
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Changeling

Best Makeup:
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2. Hellboy II: The Golden Army
3. The Dark Knight

Best Sound:
1. WALL-E
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man
4. Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
5. Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Best Sound Editing:
1. WALL-E
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man
4. The Incredible Hulk
5. Quantum Of Solace

Best Visual Effects:
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2. The Chronicles Of Narnia: Prince Caspian
3. The Dark Knight

Best Animated Film:
1. WALL-E
2. Waltz With Bashir
3. Kung Fu Panda

Best Foreign Film:
1. Gomorrah
2. The Class
3. Captain Abu Raed
4. Waltz With Bashir
5. Tony Manero

Best Documentary:
1. Man on Wire
2. Trouble the Water
3. Encounters at the End of the World
4. Pray The Devil Back To Hell
5. Standard Operating Procedure

So is Gran Torino officially not a threat?

It's noms could be limited to 3, all of which would be for Clint I believe (Best Actor, Best Song, Best Score).

Revo Road seems to be quickly dying off.
Hardly being mentioned in any noms and wins.
After all it just seems like its made to win an Oscar.
I don't know I get the feeling like it's trying too hard or it's following the what-to-do guidebook, it doesn't seem genuine.

looking good and sounding good thanks to Arcade Fire

Wow, James Berardinelli just gave Doubt a 4-star review, only his second this year besides The Dark Knight.

So after 4 awards, the BP contenders now look like
1) Milk
2) Slumdog
3) The Dark Knight
4) Wall-E
5) Benjamin Button
6) Frost/Nixon

Revo Road, Doubt and Wrestler seem dead in the water for now.

Chicago announced noms by 2PM CST last year so hopefully we'll hear something soon.

The sexy bastards nominated Once too

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