Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Scarlett Johannson, Match Point

I have feeling Maria Bello will just miss out AGAIN, building up her "due" Oscar resume.

Amy Adams
Scarlet Johanson
Diane KEaton
Catherine Keener
Michelle Williams

Alt. (for Catherine Keener) Rachel Weisz

I sure hope not. She was the best thing about AHOV.

Another thing that may help Amy Adams is that she was the first FYC ad that came out. This just confuses me even more for why the DVD isn't coming out until January 17th.

I remember the fuss people were making about her being the first FYC ad.

All the publicity that she's recieving as being "too small to get nominated" is more effective than any Oscar campaign.
She's been mentioned in almost every Oscar article that delves into this category.
She's been mentioned and is now being nominated for these critics awards because she was always in voters' minds.
I don't think anyone really forgot about her and she was never out of the running because she was too small. IF you ask me, I'd say she has been the front-runner for a nod in the supporting category since the race began.


Considering everyone else, unless Johanson gives an outstanding performance, I don;t see how Diane KEaton can lose this based on what I'm hearing (Which isn't too much, but then again this category really is not much either)!

Catherine Keener has really started gaining steam the last day or so. The academy has already shown (BJM) they like her. Smells like a nomination.

If I were a religious man, I would literally get down on my hands and knees and pray for a Rachel Weisz nod. And Maria Bello, for that matter (I saw History of Violence recently for the second time. Really got to me this time around..although I still think some events near the end are....goofy.)

I would have seriously considered her, especially cuz she's one of my favorite actresses working today, but Warner Independent isn't pushing for her AT ALL.
On all their FYC ads for everything they want to be conidered about... there's only one supporting actor mentioned (or two with Clooney) and that's Frank Langella. No Supporting Actress, nothing for anyone else.
Guess they don;t want to split any votes or go after unnecessary races.

Patricia Clarkson's role was way too small and insignificant to make a dent, I think.

Assuming War of the Worlds.
She was quite good considering, but still... I don't think so!

Hehehe, I posted that in October

Academy members already have a copy of the DVDs.

Nominations come out January 20th something?

Definately to capitalize on the thought that she will actually get an Oscar nomination.

I did this multiple times today and this is the one time I guess I didn't notice.
I kept clicking on the actual thread title and scrolling down the page to see what the last person said. I should have clicked on the page number.

I see Amy Adams, Maria Bello, and Michelle Williams are locks. I haven't seen Junebug, but right now I'm pulling for Michelle. She delivered the best supporting performance I've seen in a long time. The emotion and facial expressions, both when she made the discovery and the last scene at the kitchen, were just incredible.

I agree that Bello (who should be considered lead, though!), Adams and Williams are locks.

The remaining two spots will be between Keaton, MacLaine, Johansson, Keener and Weisz.

Emphasis on "last scene." The fact that she mysteriously disappeared, you actually felt there was something missing with the movie. Great performance.

Hmm...I wouldn't call Amy Adams a lock. Or Maria Bello, who was snubbed two years ago. And A History of Violence could be showered with nominations, or it could be one of those movies that, for whatever, completely turns the academy off.

Michelle Williams...now that there is a lock.

I haven't seen BM yet...how is Anne Hathaway? I was wondering if she could maybe grab a surprise SAG nomination (I expect the actors to really like BM) , and suddenly be thrust into the race. Is this possible?

Also, apparently Rachel Weisz has been campaigning like a mad woman. I love her, i love her movie; this is good.

Adams is being showered with critics award like no one else it seems and the year is not terribly strong, so I think she'll get it.

Bello receives the most acclaim than anyone else for A History of Violence and if it wasn't for Williams, I would call her a frontrunner for the win.

I thought Anne Hathaway gave a good performance as well - Michelle Williams gave the showier (and ultimately stronger) performance, but Anne Hathaway was much more restrained and quite - and her final scene on the telephone with Heath Ledger blew me away since we see her character just crusing around the movie, then her bitterness unraveled. I won't be surprised if she gets a SAG nod since they like to throw an unlikely performance a bone.

I also like Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener. In fact, she hasn't given a bad performance. Not even in Envy.

My current predictions:

Amy Adams (Junebug)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Diane Keaton (The Family Stone)/Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)

I predict -

Amy Adams, Junebug
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Maria Bello, A History of Violence

I could see Frances McDormand going in over Bello, and Scarlett Johansson has a chance but I just don't see it happening.

I think Michelle Williams will win, as they'll want to give Brokeback something for acting, and since Ledger & Gyllenhaal probably won't win might as well give it to Williams. Plus she was just really good. Amy Adams is her toughest competition, but Junebug might be too obscure to get her a win.

Williams, surprisingly enough, seems like the one closest to a win in BBM.

Anyway, I just have a feeling that either Weisz or Keener is going to be snubbed for a nom. Just a hunch.

Michelle Williams
Rachel Weisz
Catherine Keener
Maria Bello
Amy Adams

Now I feel Maria Bello can be snubbed.

That's what I'd go with for now with the most vulnerable being Rachel Weisz. did you realize the way you listed it is exactly reversed alphabetical order

Same for me.