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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Atoddr wrote: andaroo, what's your gut feeling about Million Dollar Baby? Too small, too late. Even for Eastwood. And Warner looks like they are putting a lot more money into A Very Long Engagement.
Mystic River differentiated itself last year, but had a big build up to do that, but MDB is just another small scale project lost in a sea of already monsterously applauded smaller scale projects.
Acting nominations... maybe? Freeman and Swank? Eastwood apparently gives one of his best acting performances in this, maybe he can fill the last spot in the already crowded line up? Adapted Screenplay? That category is not too hard this year (although Closer will win).
Can this film get nominated instead of Sideways? Kinsey? Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind? Vera Drake? Hotel Rwanda? Ray? I don't think so.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 12:39 am |
 
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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 Between The Phantom of the Opera, A Very Long Engagement and Million Dollar Baby, Warner Bros. has some great contendors but all of them have shakey chances. In fact, if Alexander had been excellent, they would have covered all the bases from adult drama, to arthouse, to popular, to epic.
A Very Long Engagment has already been critically acclaimed, I haven't read a bad thing about it once, but it is foreign... but Amelie...
The Phantom of the Opera will probably be a $100+ million Christmas crowd pleaser, but not all of the test screenings and reviews I have read have been glowing. It will suffer for the lack of Crawford is the prevailing attitude. To be fair, it has gotten some great reviews though from some important folks... the Phantom fans.
Million Dollar Baby... the big question mark. Has anybody even read a review? Right now it's pretty much getting a free ride based on Eastwood's name alone, but that's okay, because The Aviator got that free ride as well.
Warner Bros. may be a new player, but I can fathom a season where Miramax could squeeze Finding Neverland with The Aviator in the top spot, but there is no way I could put The Aviator and two more Warner films in the full list of 5 potential nominees. In my opinion, you have to choose between them.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 12:49 am |
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Atoddr
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:07 am
Posts: 3014
Location: Kansai
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Here's several reviews of Million Dollar Baby:
http://www.oscarrace.com/
I didn't realize how many movies Warner Brothers had in their Oscar contender line-up.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 1:01 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Atoddr wrote: I didn't realize how many movies Warner Brothers had in their Oscar contender line-up. Yeah. It's no wonder they dumped their distribution of The Aviator. I'm sure they felt they had one or two sure things going into this year, especially considering Phantom is released on like the same day as Aviator.
That's some good praise for Million Dollar Baby... but I will have to wait and read along to some reviews that come out from people that I really like to read. I like Poland but I don't think he chooses great contendors... GoldDerby can likewise be a very questionable source and I don't like Jeffrey Wells. I'm more of the Ebert/A.O. Scott/Entertainment Weekly sort of reader.
But one thing I think everybody has to remember about the Oscars is, while there is usually a base level of quality associated with all top 5 pictures, they are not usually ALL considered to be the creme of the crop to steal a phrase. For every Far From Heaven you have a Gangs of New York that's nominated. It would be cool to see a top 5 line up which included films that are universally praised, but it never quite works out that way. Oscar winners are usually in that 80% praise zone.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 1:07 am |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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Raffiki wrote: Well... I thought I had explained myself about Eternal Sunshine in one of the posts of the past week.
I don't have a bias against Eternal Sunshine.
If you check on my Best of 2004 list, I gave it a B+ against my hareshest grading, making it around #10-12 or something like that.
I actually have to rent it to see it again, cuz I watched it like more than half a year ago. I remeber halfway through the movie I was almost bored, but then it picked up. I remember loving the second half and likeing the movie overall. It was great and I think it deserves some nominations which I don't see it getting.
HOWEVER.... I just can't understand how you guys think it will get or is in the running to get a nomination for Best Picture. I don't want to explain the adaptation thing for the third time, but bottom line, if adaptation didn't get a nod, there is almost no way Eternal Sunshine will. It's too small, and for being a quirky movie like that and getting THAT much money at the box office with not much buzz left is not a good sign. Then look at it from the other side.... it made good money for itself but it didn't make enough to break out and thus, get some attention....
Concerning Alexander....
This is a passion project... Not only has Stone been wanting to do it for 20 years.... MANY others have tried and failed. Industry insiders were really anticipating from what I read months ago. No matter what, it still has that sympathy factor.... he deserves it cuz he spend so much of his life on it.... whatever!
Second, I don't trust the critics on this one.... There is no way Troy sucking THAT bad could do significantly better with critics (55% v 16% at rotten tomatoes) than this undertaking... that is why I have reservations until I see it....
If it truly is horrendous, then I have no problem admitting it has no chances. It's just how I think the Academy looks at different films.
I mean if you'll see it already fell from #2 to around #15 or so on my Best Picture predictions in a matter of 2 weeks!
I think Jim Carrey was great in Eternal Sunshine, but we have just as good and better performances and competition. Despite thinking Kate Winslet is far from a nomination for Best Actress, I will go so far as saying as of now, she probably should be in the top 5 or so best of the year. I don't see why critics would be biased.
In fact, wouldn't it just be as easy to pick on troy as it is on alexander? Easier, actually.
Yet most critics (63% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes Cream of the Crop) still gave it positive reviews.
The difference is that many considered Troy to be lackingin any kind of depth, but still thought it was entertaining enough to watch. While there have been probably hundreds of reviews in which the word "boring" is used for Alexander.
Aviator now seems like the one lock in the race with the reviews, BTW. I mean sure Cold mountain missed out last year and it wasn't because of the reviews as they were really good, but The Aviator is different. (then again my big question was wether the aviator would be too ligh-hearted for the academy and the big word being thrown around IS "entertaining"...but still they'll want to reward scorcese probably.) _________________ Best Actress 2008
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 2:33 pm |
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lovemerox
Forum General
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:16 pm
Posts: 6499
Location: Down along the dixie line
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I think its funny some people predict oscars before the movie even comes out, and then look what happens *cough alexander *cough....hehe
I will get blasted for this, but i think Man On Fire should win something  _________________
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:29 pm |
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Dkmuto
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
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lovemerox wrote: I think its funny some people predict oscars before the movie even comes out, and then look what happens *cough alexander *cough....hehe I will get blasted for this, but i think Man On Fire should win something BLAST!
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:31 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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This is why it's fun to predict.
At these point, these three movies are the closest to locks, I'd say:
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:32 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Dr. Lecter wrote: This is why it's fun to predict.
At these point, these three movies are the closest to locks, I'd say:
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland The Aviator and Closer are locks in my opinion, while Finding Neverland isn't yet. I kept having Big Fish in mind.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:56 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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xiayun wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: This is why it's fun to predict.
At these point, these three movies are the closest to locks, I'd say:
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland The Aviator and Closer are locks in my opinion, while Finding Neverland isn't yet. I kept having Big Fish in mind. Same here and I was persistant about that for a looooooong time, saying that it screams Big Fish to me. However, the reviews are better. When Big Fish was released, it got around 59% at RT (now redeemed itself to 77%) and the overall reactions are better. Furthermore, right now it seems that what Depp touches is gold.
And I wouldn't call The Aviator a 100% lock, it can still pull a Cold Mountain on us. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:58 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I saw Finding Neverland yesterday, and it was really good, but not as good I was expecting. Great performances by Kate Winslet, Johnny Depp and Freddy Highmore and good performances by Julie Christie, Radha Mitchell and Dustin Hoffman. Depp was actually the biggest letdown. Highmore and Winslet easilt outshined him. Great technical work also, but I don't expect it to get much there. Here's my picks:
Picture
Director
Actor-Depp
Actress-Winslet (If not for ES)
S. Actor-Highmore
Screenplay
Score
Art Direction
Costume Design
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:59 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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Winslet is still being campaigned supporting for Neverland.
I'm not sure about Closer just because of the subject matter. There's alway a cold/depressing/brutal movie (Mystic River, In the Bedrooom), but I don't know. Maybe. The National Board of REview is this week that will make things more clear  _________________Best Actress 2008
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:04 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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Then Supporting, maybe even if she is nominated for ES. I could easily see her with two nods this year.
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:48 pm |
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lovemerox
Forum General
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:16 pm
Posts: 6499
Location: Down along the dixie line
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Chris wrote: Then Supporting, maybe even if she is nominated for ES. I could easily see her with two nods this year. I would love to see that. I adore Kate! _________________
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:33 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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At this point the onyl lock or anything close to a lock is Aviator.
It in no way resembles Cold Mountain.... it has a much more respected director and actors/actresses (at Cold Mountain's time, everyone was sick of Kidman and a bit irritated by Zellweger). Plus, Mountain had backlash from the beginning before it's release. People really want to see the Aviator.... no doubt it is a lock....
I'd say Phantom and Closer are the next sure things....
Phantom has great chance mostly on its grandeur and the fact that it's one of the most beloved, if not the most favorite broadway musical of all time... new talent, new genre for a big-time director. The thing with Phantom is that it has very big chances to get in, but it can very easily fall apart. But considering the musical number the academy is putting in to their nods more often now, I think it's a safe bet for now.
Closer, unlike Phantom does not have huge risks as to fall flat or bomb. So many people are really interested.... people who don't usually go for these kinds of dark movies (granted some don't know how dark it is). But Closer's only obstacle (now that we know it's gonna get rave reviews from most critics) is the like-ability factor among majority members, but I think it's getting on everyone's good side, especially with Mike Nichols year-long statue-winning tour for Angels in America, I think this one may be more a shoe in than Phantom some days.
I just saw Finding Neverland and I almost completely agree with Chris....
It was very good but under what was expected and Johnny Depp's performance wasn't that stellar, defintely over-shadowed to an extent by the little boy actor and Kate Winslet.... I almost don't see anything for this movie anymore... verrrry fishy (as in Big Fish). If anything a Winslet supporting nod (and it is a supporting role, I don't know why people are confused, I didn't need the campaign ad to tell me that) or it bettered Winslet's chances at another Best Actress nod for Eternal Sunshine!
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Mon Nov 29, 2004 10:02 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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At the moment, Closer stands at 63% at RT with an average rating of 5.9/10...
I hope we don't see another frontrunner going here :?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Nov 30, 2004 11:52 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Dr. Lecter wrote: At the moment, Closer stands at 63% at RT with an average rating of 5.9/10...
I hope we don't see another frontrunner going here :? Maybe. But the loss of Closer is a gain for Spanglish (also Sony) and films like Kinsey, Sideways, etc. Something that will take the drama slot.
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| Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:15 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
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I saw Finding Neverland a second time over the weekend...
You guys are right. Depp's performance isn't as good as he's been before; it'd be a shame to have him beat out Foxx for Best Actor.
I'm removing it from my top five list. The film really pushes all your buttons to try and get every last tear out of you. The movie itself gets slow in places and, without Barrie's background, the movie couldn't be taken seriously. I doubt it's chances at Best Picture.
I almost get a "The Hours" vibe with Closer. Reviews won't be great, but those that have given the film positive reviews are raving. This happens every year. If Closer has this connection and manages to garner a nom., this bodes extremely well for Eternal Sunshine, which has the emotional impact and the better reviews.
I'll post my BP picks in an hour or two...
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| Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:43 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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If after a majority of the reviews (120 or so) come in at Rotten Tomatoes and Closer stand in the 70's, I would not be surprised the least bit.
that was me reservation from the VERY beginning, my most anticipated yet most iffy film for a nod.... it's gonna be the kind of movie that alot of people are gonna go crazy about (writing, acting, directing) but some are just gonna bash cuz they feel it's stupid and unimportant.
That's why my Oscar analysis claims that Closer's biggest obstacle is to get accepted by even the slim majority....
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:51 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
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The OR's are the alternatives. I can see Sideways, Phantom (doubtful), Finding Neverland, and a foreign film making an attempt, too.
The Aviator (Miramax/WB)
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus)
Hotel Rwanda (Fine Line) OR Kinsey (Fox)
Closer (Sony) OR Million Dollar Baby (WB)
Ray (Universal) OR Spanglish (Sony)
Spanglish's chances depend on it's box office and acting performances. It could be this year's Something's Gotta Give. Million Dollar Baby is making a late run, but everything that's been mentioned has been very encouraging. If Closer manages to get a 70% rating at RT (with the encouraging reviews), it should keep the nomination; otherwise, Million Dollar Baby should take it.
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| Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:59 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Well, I just about agree with your predictions ^^^ except for one....
Instead of Eternal Sunshine, I would put Phantom of the Opera. I, too, have doubts but along with high doubts it has high hopes too!
And Eternal Sunshine could be the OR, or a second OR to any of the other nominees.
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:25 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Another thing going for Eternal Sunshine is the People's Choice Award.
It has the momentum at this point that any film would kill for, and every film except Kinsey or Sideways wished they had.
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:37 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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torrino wrote: I almost get a "The Hours" vibe with Closer. Reviews won't be great, but those that have given the film positive reviews are raving. This happens every year. If Closer has this connection and manages to garner a nom., this bodes extremely well for Eternal Sunshine, which has the emotional impact and the better reviews.
I got the same feeling with Closer and The Hours. Both are depressing movies that's hard to break into the mainstream audience. I remembered some magazine(Time?) put The Hours as the worst film of the year. There will be people who hate Closer as well, but people who like it will love and rave about it. It's a similar thing with Moulin Rouge, which was also in the 70% range and even less with cream of the crop. Still, both MR and The Hours manager to get in, so I still think Closer is close to a lock.
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:22 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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After the National Board of Review, I'd say that Eternal Sunshine's chances are diminishing with each new day. It has too many odds to face.
The Aviator got the #3 spot on the NBR and considering all we know about the movie so far, it is pretty much a lock for a nom.
I'd also say that Finding Neverland is a lock for a nomination with great reviews, good WoM and the #1 on the National Board of Review.
I'd call Closer a lock as well, but if it gets under 65% at RT, I doubt its chances. However, I firmly believe that it won't and therefore will end up nominated.
That leaves two slots open. I'd say that The Phantom of the Opera, Hotel Rwanda and The Sea Inside will battle it out for these two. However, I expect The Sea Inside to be the one to lose the battle due to the fact that it is a foreign flick.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:00 pm |
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Dkmuto
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
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Although I don't think Eternal Sunshine is completely out, I do think it took a sizable blow today; if there was one award it would have really benefited from, it was the NBR.
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:34 pm |
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